Profit if win: \$100 x (100/180) = \$55.56 - EV = (0.62 x \$55.56) - (0.38 x \$100) = \$34.44 - \$38.00 = **-\$3.56** - This is a negative EV bet. Your model says 62% but the line implies 64.29%, meaning the sportsbook is pricing the Bucks as more likely to win than your model estimates.