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1986 pages across 8 books
AI Engineering
College Football Analytics
Learning COBOL
Prediction Markets
NFL Analytics
Basketball Analytics
Soccer Analytics
Sports Betting
Artificial Intelligence Engineering
Front Matter
Part I: Mathematical and Computational Foundations
- Part I: Mathematical and Computational Foundations
- Chapter 1: The Landscape of AI Engineering
- Chapter 2: Linear Algebra for AI
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Chapter 3: Calculus, Optimization, and Automatic Differentiation
- Chapter 3 Exercises: Calculus, Optimization, and Automatic Differentiation
- Chapter 3 Quiz: Calculus, Optimization, and Automatic Differentiation
- Case Study 1: Optimizing a Neural Network Loss Landscape
- Case Study 2: Building an Automatic Differentiation Engine from Scratch
- Chapter 3 Key Takeaways
- Chapter 3 Further Reading
- Chapter 4: Probability, Statistics, and Information Theory
- Chapter 5: Python for AI Engineering
Part II: Machine Learning Fundamentals
- Part II: Machine Learning Fundamentals
- Chapter 6: Supervised Learning: Regression and Classification
- Chapter 7: Unsupervised Learning and Dimensionality Reduction
- Chapter 8: Model Evaluation, Selection, and Validation
- Chapter 9: Feature Engineering and Data Pipelines
- Chapter 10: Probabilistic and Bayesian Methods
Part III: Deep Learning Foundations
- Part III: Deep Learning Foundations
- Chapter 11: Neural Networks from Scratch
- Chapter 12: Training Deep Networks
- Chapter 13: Regularization and Generalization
- Chapter 14: Convolutional Neural Networks
- Chapter 15: Recurrent Neural Networks and Sequence Modeling
- Chapter 16: Autoencoders and Representation Learning
- Chapter 17: Generative Adversarial Networks
Part IV: Attention, Transformers, and Language Models
- Part IV: Attention, Transformers, and Language Models
- Chapter 18: The Attention Mechanism
- Chapter 19: The Transformer Architecture
- Chapter 20: Pre-training and Transfer Learning for NLP
- Chapter 21: Decoder-Only Models and Autoregressive Language Models
- Chapter 22: Scaling Laws and Large Language Models
- Chapter 23: Prompt Engineering and In-Context Learning
- Chapter 24: Fine-Tuning Large Language Models
- Chapter 25: Alignment: RLHF, DPO, and Beyond
Part V: Beyond Text — Multimodal and Generative AI
Part VI: AI Systems Engineering
Part VII: Advanced and Emerging Topics
Part VIII: The Frontier
Part IX: Capstone Projects
College Football Analytics and Visualization
Front Matter
Part I: Foundations
Part II: Core Metrics
Part III: Visualization
Part IV: Predictive Modeling
Part V: Advanced Topics
Learning COBOL Programming: From Beginners to Experts
Front Matter
Part I: COBOL Foundations and the Mainframe World
- Part I: COBOL Foundations and the Mainframe World
- Chapter 1: The World of COBOL -- History, Relevance, and the Mainframe Ecosystem
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Chapter 2: COBOL Program Structure -- Divisions, Sections, and Paragraphs
- Chapter 2 Exercises: COBOL Program Structure
- Chapter 2 Quiz: COBOL Program Structure
- Case Study 1: Restructuring Legacy Spaghetti Code at Metro Transit Authority
- Case Study 2: Analyzing a Real-World COBOL Program Structure
- Chapter 2: Key Takeaways -- COBOL Program Structure
- Chapter 2: Further Reading -- COBOL Program Structure
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Chapter 3: Data Types, Variables, and the PICTURE Clause
- Chapter 3 Exercises: Data Types, Variables, and the PICTURE Clause
- Chapter 3 Quiz: Data Types, Variables, and the PICTURE Clause
- Case Study 1: Designing a Customer Account Record at Continental Savings Bank
- Case Study 2: Currency Conversion Data Representation at Pacific Rim Exchange Services
- Chapter 3: Key Takeaways -- Data Types, Variables, and the PICTURE Clause
- Chapter 3: Further Reading -- Data Types, Variables, and the PICTURE Clause
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Chapter 4: The WORKING-STORAGE and LOCAL-STORAGE Sections
- Chapter 4 Exercises: The WORKING-STORAGE and LOCAL-STORAGE Sections
- Chapter 4 Quiz: The WORKING-STORAGE and LOCAL-STORAGE Sections
- Case Study 1: Designing Working Storage for a Loan Processing System
- Case Study 2: Designing a Loan Application Data Structure
- Chapter 4: Key Takeaways -- The WORKING-STORAGE and LOCAL-STORAGE Sections
- Chapter 4: Further Reading -- The WORKING-STORAGE and LOCAL-STORAGE Sections
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Chapter 5: Basic Input/Output and DISPLAY/ACCEPT Statements
- Chapter 5 Exercises: Basic Input/Output and DISPLAY/ACCEPT Statements
- Chapter 5 Quiz: Basic Input/Output and DISPLAY/ACCEPT Statements
- Case Study 1: Building an ATM Interface Prototype
- Case Study 2: Batch Report Generation at County Tax Office
- Chapter 5: Key Takeaways -- Basic Input/Output and DISPLAY/ACCEPT Statements
- Chapter 5: Further Reading -- Basic Input/Output and DISPLAY/ACCEPT Statements
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Chapter 6: Arithmetic Operations and Numeric Processing
- Chapter 6 Exercises: Arithmetic Operations and Numeric Processing
- Chapter 6 Quiz: Arithmetic Operations and Numeric Processing
- Case Study 1: Precision Matters -- The $0.01 Problem at National Savings Bank
- Case Study 2: Payroll Calculation System
- Chapter 6: Key Takeaways -- Arithmetic Operations and Numeric Processing
- Chapter 6: Further Reading -- Arithmetic Operations and Numeric Processing
Part II: Control Flow and Program Logic
- Part II: Control Flow and Program Logic
- Chapter 7: Conditional Logic -- IF, EVALUATE, and Condition Names
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Chapter 8: Iteration -- The PERFORM Statement in All Its Forms
- Chapter 8 Exercises: Iteration -- The PERFORM Statement
- Chapter 8 Quiz: Iteration -- The PERFORM Statement
- Case Study 1: Control Break Reporting at State Revenue Department
- Case Study 2: Amortization Schedule Generator
- Chapter 8: Iteration -- The PERFORM Statement in All Its Forms -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 8: Iteration -- The PERFORM Statement in All Its Forms -- Further Reading
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Chapter 9: String Handling and Character Manipulation
- Chapter 9 Exercises: String Handling and Character Manipulation
- Chapter 9 Quiz: String Handling and Character Manipulation
- Case Study 1: Parsing Bank Transaction Descriptions at Meridian National Bank
- Case Study 2: Name and Address Standardization at Heritage Life Insurance
- Chapter 9: String Handling and Character Manipulation -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 9: String Handling and Character Manipulation -- Further Reading
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Chapter 10: Tables and Arrays -- OCCURS, SEARCH, and Multi-Dimensional Data
- Chapter 10 Exercises: Tables and Arrays
- Chapter 10 Quiz: Tables and Arrays
- Case Study 1: Branch Performance Dashboard at Evergreen Federal Credit Union
- Case Study 2: Interest Rate Table Lookup at Heartland Mortgage Corporation
- Chapter 10: Tables and Arrays -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 10: Tables and Arrays -- Further Reading
Part III: File Processing and Data Management
- Part III: File Processing and Data Management
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Chapter 11: Sequential File Processing
- Chapter 11 Exercises: Sequential File Processing
- Chapter 11 Quiz: Sequential File Processing
- Case Study 1: Daily Transaction Processing at Pioneer National Bank
- Case Study 2: Master File Update from Transaction File at Consolidated Trust Bank
- Chapter 11: Sequential File Processing -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 11: Sequential File Processing -- Further Reading
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Chapter 12: Indexed File Processing (VSAM KSDS)
- Chapter 12 Exercises: Indexed File Processing (VSAM KSDS)
- Chapter 12 Quiz: Indexed File Processing (VSAM KSDS)
- Case Study 1: Customer Account Lookup System at Atlantic Commerce Bank
- Case Study 2: Online Account Balance Inquiry at Summit Federal Savings
- Chapter 12: Indexed File Processing (VSAM KSDS) -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 12: Indexed File Processing (VSAM KSDS) -- Further Reading
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Chapter 13: Relative File Processing and Advanced File Techniques
- Chapter 13 Exercises: Relative File Processing and Advanced File Techniques
- Chapter 13 Quiz: Relative File Processing and Advanced File Techniques
- Case Study 1: ATM Transaction Log Processing
- Case Study 2: Hash-Based Account Lookup
- Chapter 13: Relative File Processing and Advanced File Techniques -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 13: Further Reading
- Chapter 14: Sort and Merge Operations
- Chapter 15: Report Writer Module
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Chapter 16: Declaratives and Exception Handling
- Chapter 16 Exercises: Declaratives and Exception Handling
- Chapter 16 Quiz: Declaratives and Exception Handling
- Case Study 1: Resilient Batch Processing with Comprehensive Error Handling
- Case Study 2: Financial Data Validation Framework
- Chapter 16: Declaratives and Exception Handling -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 16: Further Reading
Part IV: Modular Programming and Code Organization
- Part IV: Modular Programming and Code Organization
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Chapter 17: Subprograms and the CALL Statement
- Chapter 17 Exercises: Subprograms and the CALL Statement
- Chapter 17 Quiz: Subprograms and the CALL Statement
- Case Study 1: Building a Reusable Date Validation Library
- Case Study 2: Modular Transaction Processing System
- Chapter 17: Subprograms and the CALL Statement -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 17: Further Reading
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Chapter 18: COPY, REPLACE, and Copybook Management
- Chapter 18 Exercises: COPY, REPLACE, and Copybook Management
- Chapter 18 Quiz: COPY, REPLACE, and Copybook Management
- Case Study 1: Enterprise Copybook Library for a Banking System
- Case Study 2: Copybook Versioning and Migration
- Chapter 18: COPY, REPLACE, and Copybook Management -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 18: COPY, REPLACE, and Copybook Management -- Further Reading
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Chapter 19: Intrinsic Functions Reference
- Chapter 19 Exercises: Intrinsic Functions Reference
- Chapter 19 Quiz: Intrinsic Functions Reference
- Case Study 1: Financial Date Processing Utility
- Case Study 2: Data Quality Assessment Tool
- Chapter 19: Intrinsic Functions Reference -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 19: Intrinsic Functions Reference -- Further Reading
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Chapter 20: Debugging Techniques and Tools
- Chapter 20 Exercises: Debugging Techniques and Tools
- Chapter 20 Quiz: Debugging Techniques and Tools
- Case Study 1: Diagnosing a Production Abend
- Case Study 2: Debugging a Complex Batch Balancing Problem
- Chapter 20: Debugging Techniques and Tools -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 20: Debugging Techniques and Tools -- Further Reading
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Chapter 21: COBOL Coding Standards and Best Practices
- Chapter 21 Exercises: COBOL Coding Standards and Best Practices
- Chapter 21 Quiz: COBOL Coding Standards and Best Practices
- Case Study: Standardizing a Legacy Codebase at a Regional Bank
- Case Study: Code Review Process at a Financial Services Firm
- Chapter 21: COBOL Coding Standards and Best Practices -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 21: COBOL Coding Standards and Best Practices -- Further Reading
Part V: Enterprise Data Access
- Part V: Enterprise Data Access
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Chapter 22: Embedded SQL and DB2 Fundamentals
- Chapter 22 Exercises: Embedded SQL and DB2 Fundamentals
- Chapter 22 Quiz: Embedded SQL and DB2 Fundamentals
- Case Study: Migrating from VSAM to DB2 at a Credit Union
- Case Study: Building a Real-Time Account Inquiry System with DB2
- Chapter 22: Embedded SQL and DB2 Fundamentals -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 22: Embedded SQL and DB2 Fundamentals -- Further Reading
- Chapter 23: Advanced DB2 Programming
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Chapter 24: CICS Transaction Processing Fundamentals
- Chapter 24 Exercises: CICS Transaction Processing Fundamentals
- Chapter 24 Quiz: CICS Transaction Processing Fundamentals
- Case Study 1: Building an Account Inquiry Transaction
- Case Study 2: Teller Transaction Entry Screen
- Chapter 24: CICS Transaction Processing Fundamentals -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 24: CICS Transaction Processing Fundamentals -- Further Reading
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Chapter 25: Advanced CICS Programming
- Chapter 25 Exercises: Advanced CICS Programming
- Chapter 25 Quiz: Advanced CICS Programming
- Case Study 1: Multi-Screen Account Management Application
- Case Study 2: CICS-to-Web Service Bridge
- Chapter 25: Advanced CICS Programming -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 25: Advanced CICS Programming -- Further Reading
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Chapter 26: IMS Database and Transaction Management
- Chapter 26 Exercises: IMS Database and Transaction Management
- Chapter 26 Quiz: IMS Database and Transaction Management
- Case Study 1: Customer Account Hierarchy in IMS
- Case Study 2: IMS Batch Update for Account Maintenance
- Chapter 26: Key Takeaways - IMS Database and Transaction Management
- Chapter 26: Further Reading - IMS Database and Transaction Management
Part VI: Mainframe Environment and Batch Processing
- Part VI: Mainframe Environment and Batch Processing
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Chapter 27: JCL Essentials for COBOL Programmers
- Chapter 27 Exercises: JCL Essentials for COBOL Programmers
- Chapter 27 Quiz: JCL Essentials for COBOL Programmers
- Case Study 1: End-of-Day Batch Job Stream
- Case Study 2: Production JCL Standards and Error Recovery
- Chapter 27: Key Takeaways - JCL Essentials for COBOL Programmers
- Chapter 27: Further Reading - JCL Essentials for COBOL Programmers
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Chapter 28: Batch Processing Patterns and Design
- Chapter 28 Exercises: Batch Processing Patterns and Design
- Chapter 28 Quiz: Batch Processing Patterns and Design
- Case Study 1: Monthly Statement Generation Batch System
- Case Study 2: Batch Reconciliation and Exception Processing
- Chapter 28: Key Takeaways - Batch Processing Patterns and Design
- Chapter 28: Further Reading - Batch Processing Patterns and Design
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Chapter 29: Mainframe Utilities for COBOL Developers
- Chapter 29: Exercises – Mainframe Utilities for COBOL Developers
- Chapter 29: Quiz – Mainframe Utilities for COBOL Developers
- Case Study 1: Setting Up a VSAM Environment for a New Banking Application
- Case Study 2: DFSORT for Transaction File Processing
- Chapter 29: Key Takeaways - Mainframe Utilities for COBOL Developers
- Chapter 29: Further Reading - Mainframe Utilities for COBOL Developers
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Chapter 30: z/OS Dataset Concepts and Storage Management
- Chapter 30: Exercises – z/OS Dataset Concepts and Storage Management
- Chapter 30: Quiz – z/OS Dataset Concepts and Storage Management
- Case Study 1: Designing the Dataset Architecture for a Banking System
- Case Study 2: GDG Management for Daily Batch Processing
- Chapter 30: Key Takeaways - z/OS Dataset Concepts and Storage Management
- Chapter 30: Further Reading - z/OS Dataset Concepts and Storage Management
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Chapter 31: COBOL and the z/OS Security Model
- Chapter 31: Exercises – COBOL and the z/OS Security Model
- Chapter 31: Quiz – COBOL and the z/OS Security Model
- Case Study 1: Implementing Security for a Banking Application
- Case Study 2: SOX Compliance Audit Trail System
- Chapter 31: Key Takeaways - COBOL and the z/OS Security Model
- Chapter 31: Further Reading - COBOL and the z/OS Security Model
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Chapter 32: Performance Tuning for COBOL Programs
- Chapter 32: Exercises – Performance Tuning for COBOL Programs
- Chapter 32: Quiz – Performance Tuning for COBOL Programs
- Case Study 1: Optimizing a Slow End-of-Day Batch Cycle
- Case Study 2: CICS Transaction Response Time Improvement
- Chapter 32: Key Takeaways - Performance Tuning for COBOL Programs
- Chapter 32: Further Reading - Performance Tuning for COBOL Programs
Part VII: COBOL in Financial Systems
- Part VII: COBOL in Financial Systems
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Chapter 33: Financial Calculations in COBOL
- Chapter 33 Exercises: Financial Calculations in COBOL
- Chapter 33 Quiz: Financial Calculations in COBOL
- Case Study 1: Mortgage Payment Calculator
- Case Study 2: Certificate of Deposit Interest Accrual System
- Chapter 33: Financial Calculations in COBOL -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 33: Financial Calculations in COBOL -- Further Reading
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Chapter 34: Banking and Payment Systems in COBOL
- Chapter 34 Exercises: Banking and Payment Systems
- Chapter 34 Quiz: Banking and Payment Systems
- Case Study 1: ACH Payment Processing System
- Case Study 2: Real-Time Wire Transfer Authorization
- Chapter 34: Banking and Payment Systems in COBOL -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 34: Banking and Payment Systems in COBOL -- Further Reading
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Chapter 35: Insurance and Government Systems
- Chapter 35 Exercises: Insurance and Government Systems
- Chapter 35 Quiz: Insurance and Government Systems
- Case Study 1: Auto Insurance Premium Rating Engine
- Case Study 2: Social Security Benefits Calculation
- Chapter 35: Insurance and Government Systems -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 35: Insurance and Government Systems -- Further Reading
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Chapter 36: Accounting and General Ledger Systems
- Chapter 36 Exercises: Accounting and General Ledger Systems
- Chapter 36 Quiz: Accounting and General Ledger Systems
- Case Study 1: General Ledger Posting System
- Case Study 2: Month-End Close Automation
- Chapter 36: Accounting and General Ledger Systems -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 36: Accounting and General Ledger Systems -- Further Reading
Part VIII: Modern COBOL and System Evolution
- Part VIII: Modern COBOL and System Evolution
- Chapter 37: Object-Oriented COBOL
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Chapter 38: Modern COBOL Integrations -- APIs, Web Services, and Microservices
- Chapter 38 Exercises: Modern COBOL Integrations
- Chapter 38 Quiz: Modern COBOL Integrations
- Case Study 1: REST API for Account Balance Inquiry
- Case Study 2: Message Queue Integration for Real-Time Notifications
- Chapter 38: Modern COBOL Integrations -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 38: Modern COBOL Integrations -- Further Reading
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Chapter 39: Legacy System Maintenance and Modernization
- Chapter 39 Exercises: Legacy System Maintenance and Modernization
- Chapter 39 Quiz: Legacy System Maintenance and Modernization
- Case Study: Modernizing a 30-Year-Old Insurance Claims System
- Case Study: COBOL-to-Cloud Migration at a Government Agency
- Chapter 39: Legacy System Maintenance and Modernization -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 39: Legacy System Maintenance and Modernization -- Further Reading
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Chapter 40: Testing, Quality Assurance, and Deployment
- Chapter 40 Exercises: Testing, Quality Assurance, and Deployment
- Chapter 40 Quiz: Testing, Quality Assurance, and Deployment
- Case Study: Implementing Automated Testing for a Banking Platform
- Case Study: Zero-Downtime Deployment for Mission-Critical COBOL Systems
- Chapter 40: Testing, Quality Assurance, and Deployment -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 40: Testing, Quality Assurance, and Deployment -- Further Reading
Part IX: Capstone Projects and Career Path
- Part IX: Capstone Projects and Career Path
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Chapter 41: Capstone Project -- Building a Complete Banking Application
- Chapter 41 Exercises: Capstone Project -- Building a Complete Banking Application
- Chapter 41 Quiz: Capstone Project -- Building a Complete Banking Application
- Case Study 1: Scaling the Banking Application for Multi-Branch Operation
- Case Study 2: Adding Fraud Detection to the Banking System
- Chapter 41: Capstone Project -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 41: Capstone Project -- Further Reading
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Chapter 42: COBOL Career Guide and the Path Forward
- Chapter 42 Exercises: COBOL Career Guide and the Path Forward
- Chapter 42 Quiz: COBOL Career Guide and the Path Forward
- Case Study 1: From Java Developer to Mainframe Specialist
- Case Study 2: Navigating a COBOL Modernization Career
- Chapter 42: COBOL Career Guide -- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 42: COBOL Career Guide -- Further Reading
Appendices
- Appendix A: COBOL Reserved Words
- Appendix B: File Status Codes
- Appendix C: COBOL Language Quick Reference
- Appendix D: JCL Quick Reference
- Appendix E: Glossary
- Appendix F: PICTURE Clause Reference
- Appendix G: Answers to Selected Exercises
- Appendix H: Annotated Bibliography
- Appendix I: ABEND Code Reference
- Appendix J: EBCDIC and ASCII Reference
- Appendix K: Compiler Options Reference
- Appendix L: Setting Up GnuCOBOL
Learning Prediction Markets
Frontmatter
Part I: Foundations
- Part I: Foundations
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Chapter 1 — What Are Prediction Markets?
- Exercises — Chapter 1: What Are Prediction Markets?
- Quiz — Chapter 1: What Are Prediction Markets?
- Case Study 1: Tracking the 2024 US Presidential Election on Polymarket
- Case Study 2: Corporate Prediction Markets at TechCorp
- Key Takeaways — Chapter 1: What Are Prediction Markets?
- Further Reading — Chapter 1: What Are Prediction Markets?
- Chapter 2: A Brief History of Prediction Markets
- Chapter 3: Probability Fundamentals
- Chapter 4: Contracts, Payoffs, and Market Mechanics
- Chapter 5: The Modern Platform Landscape
- Chapter 6: Setting Up Your Python Toolkit
Part II: Market Microstructure and Pricing
- Part II: Market Microstructure & Pricing
- Chapter 7: Order Books and the Limit Order Market
- Chapter 8: Automated Market Makers
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Chapter 9: Scoring Rules and Proper Incentives
- Chapter 9 Exercises: Scoring Rules and Proper Incentives
- Chapter 9 Quiz: Scoring Rules and Proper Incentives
- Case Study 1: Evaluating Forecaster Performance in a Prediction Tournament
- Case Study 2: Designing a Scoring System for a Corporate Forecasting Program
- Chapter 9 Key Takeaways: Scoring Rules and Proper Incentives
- Chapter 9 Further Reading: Scoring Rules and Proper Incentives
- Chapter 10: Bid-Ask Spreads, Transaction Costs, and Fees
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Chapter 11: Information Aggregation Theory
- Chapter 11 Exercises: Information Aggregation Theory
- Chapter 11 Quiz: Information Aggregation Theory
- Case Study 1: Wisdom of Crowds Experiment — Simulating Information Aggregation
- Case Study 2: Did the Market Know? Analyzing Information Incorporation Speed
- Chapter 11: Key Takeaways
- Chapter 11: Further Reading
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Chapter 12: Calibration — Measuring Forecast Quality
- Chapter 12 Exercises: Calibration — Measuring Forecast Quality
- Chapter 12 Quiz: Calibration — Measuring Forecast Quality
- Case Study 1: How Calibrated Is Polymarket? A Large-Scale Analysis
- Case Study 2: Building a Personal Forecasting Calibration Tracker
- Chapter 12 Key Takeaways
- Chapter 12 Further Reading
Part III: Trading Strategies and Edge
- Part III: Trading Strategies & Edge
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Chapter 13: Finding and Quantifying Your Edge
- Chapter 13 Exercises: Finding and Quantifying Your Edge
- Chapter 13 Quiz: Finding and Quantifying Your Edge
- Case Study 1: From Gut Feeling to Quantified Edge: A Trader's Journey
- Case Study 2: Edge Detection Across 500 Markets
- Chapter 13 Key Takeaways: Finding and Quantifying Your Edge
- Chapter 13 Further Reading
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Chapter 14: Binary Outcome Trading Strategies
- Chapter 14 Exercises: Binary Outcome Trading Strategies
- Chapter 14 Quiz: Binary Outcome Trading Strategies
- Case Study 1: Trading a Presidential Election — Strategy Comparison
- Case Study 2: Closing the Gap — Profiting from Stale Markets
- Chapter 14 Key Takeaways: Binary Outcome Trading Strategies
- Chapter 14 Further Reading: Binary Outcome Trading Strategies
- Chapter 15: Multi-Outcome and Scalar Market Strategies
- Chapter 16: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets
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Chapter 17: Portfolio Construction and Risk Management
- Chapter 17 Exercises: Portfolio Construction and Risk Management
- Chapter 17 Quiz: Portfolio Construction and Risk Management
- Case Study 1: Building a Diversified Prediction Market Portfolio
- Case Study 2: Stress Testing Through a Black Swan Event
- Chapter 17 Key Takeaways: Portfolio Construction and Risk Management
- Chapter 17 Further Reading: Portfolio Construction and Risk Management
- Chapter 18: Behavioral Biases and Market Inefficiencies
- Chapter 19: Live Trading, Execution, and Operational Discipline
Part IV: Data Science and Modeling
- Part IV: Data Science & Modeling
- Chapter 20: Data Collection and Web Scraping
- Chapter 21: Exploratory Data Analysis of Market Data
- Chapter 22: Statistical Modeling — Regression and Time Series
- Chapter 23: Machine Learning for Probability Estimation
- Chapter 24: NLP and Sentiment Analysis
- Chapter 25: Ensemble Methods and Model Combination
- Chapter 26: Backtesting Prediction Market Strategies
- Chapter 27: Feature Stores, Pipelines, and MLOps
Part V: Market Design and Mechanism Engineering
- Part V: Market Design & Mechanism Engineering
- Chapter 28: Principles of Prediction Market Design
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Chapter 29: Liquidity Provision and Market Making
- Exercises: Liquidity Provision and Market Making
- Quiz: Liquidity Provision and Market Making
- Case Study 1: Building a Profitable Market Making Strategy Across 50 Markets
- Case Study 2: Adverse Selection in Political Markets
- Key Takeaways: Liquidity Provision and Market Making
- Further Reading: Liquidity Provision and Market Making
- Chapter 30: Combinatorial Prediction Markets
- Chapter 31: Decision Markets and Futarchy
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Chapter 32: Building a Prediction Market Platform from Scratch
- Chapter 32: Exercises — Building a Platform from Scratch
- Chapter 32: Quiz — Building a Platform from Scratch
- Case Study 1: Building a Binary Options Prediction Market for Company Internal Forecasting
- Case Study 2: Migrating from Order Book to AMM — A Platform Architecture Decision
- Chapter 32: Key Takeaways — Building a Platform from Scratch
- Chapter 32: Further Reading — Building a Platform from Scratch
- Chapter 33: Scaling, Performance, and Operations
Part VI: Blockchain and Decentralized Markets
Part VII: Regulation, Ethics, and the Future
- Part VII: Regulation, Ethics & the Future
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Chapter 38: The Regulatory Landscape
- Chapter 38 Exercises: The Regulatory Landscape
- Chapter 38 Quiz: The Regulatory Landscape
- Case Study 1: Kalshi's Path to CFTC Approval
- Case Study 2: CFTC vs Polymarket — Regulatory Compliance Case Analysis
- Chapter 38 Key Takeaways: The Regulatory Landscape
- Chapter 38 Further Reading: The Regulatory Landscape
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Chapter 39: Ethics of Prediction Markets
- Chapter 39 Exercises: Ethics of Prediction Markets
- Chapter 39 Quiz: Ethics of Prediction Markets
- Case Study 1: The Ethics of Assassination Markets and Where to Draw the Line
- Case Study 2: Addressing Inequality in Market Access
- Chapter 39 Key Takeaways: Ethics of Prediction Markets
- Chapter 39 Further Reading: Ethics of Prediction Markets
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Chapter 40: Real-World Applications
- Exercises: Real-World Applications
- Quiz: Real-World Applications
- Case Study 1: Google's Internal Prediction Markets — A Decade of Corporate Forecasting
- Case Study 2: COVID-19 Pandemic Prediction Markets — Real-Time Tracking Performance
- Key Takeaways: Real-World Applications
- Further Reading: Real-World Applications
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Chapter 41: The Frontier — Research Directions
- Chapter 41: Exercises
- Quiz: The Frontier — Research Directions
- Case Study 1: GPT-4 as a Forecaster — Benchmarking LLM Predictions Against Human Superforecasters
- Case Study 2: Privacy-Preserving Prediction Markets Using Secure Computation
- Key Takeaways: The Frontier — Research Directions
- Further Reading: The Frontier — Research Directions
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Chapter 42: Capstone — Building a Complete Trading System
- Chapter 42 Exercises: Extending the Capstone Trading System
- Chapter 42 Quiz: Comprehensive Review
- Case Study 1: Building a Polymarket Trading Bot — From Research to Production
- Case Study 2: Multi-Platform Arbitrage System — Architecture and Lessons Learned
- Chapter 42 Key Takeaways
- Chapter 42 Further Reading
Professional Football Analytics and Visualization
Front Matter
Part I: Foundations of Football Analytics
Part II: Player Performance Analytics
Part III: Team-Level Analytics
Part IV: Predictive Modeling
Part V: Advanced Topics
Part VI: Applications and Integration
Part VII: Capstone Projects
Professional Basketball Analytics and Visualization
Front Matter
Part 1: Foundations of Basketball Analytics
- Chapter 1: Introduction to Basketball Analytics
- Chapter 2: Data Sources and Collection
- Chapter 3: Python Environment Setup
- Chapter 4: Exploratory Data Analysis for Basketball
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Chapter 5: Descriptive Statistics in Basketball
- Chapter 5: Exercises
- Chapter 5 Quiz: Descriptive Statistics in Basketball
- Case Study 1: Building a Comprehensive Player Comparison System
- Case Study 2: Analyzing Scoring Consistency for MVP Voting
- Chapter 5: Key Takeaways - Descriptive Statistics in Basketball
- Chapter 5: Further Reading - Descriptive Statistics in Basketball
Part 2: Traditional Basketball Metrics
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Chapter 6: Box Score Fundamentals
- Chapter 6 Exercises: Box Score Fundamentals
- Chapter 6 Quiz: Box Score Fundamentals
- Case Study 1: The 2016-17 Triple-Double Season of Russell Westbrook
- Case Study 2: The Defensive Dominance of the 2004 Detroit Pistons
- Chapter 6 Key Takeaways: Box Score Fundamentals
- Chapter 6 Further Reading: Box Score Fundamentals
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Chapter 7: Rate Statistics and Pace Adjustment
- Chapter 7 Exercises: Rate Statistics and Pace Adjustment
- Chapter 7 Quiz: Rate Statistics and Pace Adjustment
- Case Study 1: The Pace-and-Space Revolution of the 2015-18 Golden State Warriors
- Case Study 2: Mike Conley and the Mid-2010s Memphis Grizzlies Pace Outliers
- Chapter 7 Key Takeaways: Rate Statistics and Pace Adjustment
- Chapter 7 Further Reading: Rate Statistics and Pace Adjustment
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Chapter 8: Shooting Efficiency Metrics
- Chapter 8 Exercises: Shooting Efficiency Metrics
- Chapter 8 Quiz: Shooting Efficiency Metrics
- Case Study 1: Stephen Curry and the 2015-16 Season - Redefining Shooting Efficiency
- Case Study 2: The Houston Rockets' "Moreyball" Era (2017-2020) - Team-Level Efficiency Optimization
- Chapter 8 Key Takeaways: Shooting Efficiency Metrics
- Chapter 8 Further Reading: Shooting Efficiency Metrics
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Chapter 9: Advanced Box Score Metrics
- Chapter 9: Exercises
- Chapter 9 Quiz: Advanced Box Score Metrics
- Case Study 1: Nikola Jokic and the Evolution of Center Evaluation
- Case Study 2: Draymond Green and the Limits of Box Score Evaluation
- Chapter 9 Key Takeaways: Advanced Box Score Metrics
- Chapter 9 Further Reading: Advanced Box Score Metrics
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Chapter 10: Plus-Minus and On/Off Analysis
- Chapter 10 Exercises: Plus-Minus and On/Off Analysis
- Chapter 10 Quiz: Plus-Minus and On/Off Analysis
- Case Study 1: The 2019-20 Milwaukee Bucks - Elite Net Rating and Giannis Antetokounmpo's On/Off Dominance
- Case Study 2: The Impact of Point Guards - Chris Paul's On/Off Excellence Across Teams
- Chapter 10 Key Takeaways: Plus-Minus and On/Off Analysis
- Chapter 10 Further Reading: Plus-Minus and On/Off Analysis
Part 3: Modern Analytics
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Chapter 11: Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM)
- Chapter 11 Exercises: Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM)
- Chapter 11 Quiz: Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM)
- Case Study 1: The Discovery of Draymond Green's True Value
- Case Study 2: Building a Real-Time RAPM System for Player Evaluation
- Chapter 11 Key Takeaways: Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM)
- Chapter 11 Further Reading: Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM)
-
Chapter 12: Box Plus-Minus (BPM) and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP)
- Chapter 12 Exercises: Box Plus-Minus (BPM) and VORP
- Chapter 12 Quiz: Box Plus-Minus (BPM) and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP)
- Case Study 1: Nikola Jokic and the Evolution of Center Value
- Case Study 2: Using VORP for Roster Construction and Salary Cap Management
- Chapter 12 Key Takeaways: Box Plus-Minus (BPM) and VORP
- Chapter 12 Further Reading: Box Plus-Minus (BPM) and VORP
-
Chapter 13: Win Shares and Wins Above Replacement
- Chapter 13 Exercises: Win Shares and Wins Above Replacement
- Chapter 13 Quiz: Win Shares
- Case Study 1: The 2016 Warriors - Win Shares in a Historic Season
- Case Study 2: Win Shares for Career Evaluation - Comparing All-Time Greats
- Chapter 13 Key Takeaways: Win Shares
- Chapter 13 Further Reading: Win Shares
-
Chapter 14: Expected Possession Value (EPV)
- Chapter 14 Exercises: Expected Possession Value (EPV)
- Chapter 14 Quiz: Expected Possession Value (EPV)
- Case Study 1: EPV Analysis of the Pick-and-Roll
- Case Study 2: Building an EPV Model from Tracking Data
- Chapter 14 Key Takeaways: Expected Possession Value (EPV)
- Chapter 14 Further Reading: Expected Possession Value (EPV)
- Chapter 15: Player Tracking Analytics
-
Chapter 16: Shot Quality Models
- Chapter 16 Exercises: Shot Quality Models
- Chapter 16 Quiz: Shot Quality Models
- Case Study 1: Building a Shot Quality Model for the Houston Rockets' Three-Point Revolution
- Case Study 2: Evaluating Shot-Making Ability - Separating Skill from Shot Selection
- Chapter 16 Key Takeaways: Shot Quality Models
- Chapter 16 Further Reading: Shot Quality Models
Part 4: Team and Game Analytics
-
Chapter 17: Team Offensive Efficiency
- Chapter 17: Exercises - Team Offensive Efficiency
- Chapter 17: Quiz - Team Offensive Efficiency
- Case Study 1: The Golden State Warriors' Offensive Revolution (2015-2019)
- Case Study 2: The San Antonio Spurs' Motion Offense Perfection (2014 NBA Finals)
- Chapter 17: Key Takeaways - Team Offensive Efficiency
- Chapter 17: Further Reading - Team Offensive Efficiency
-
Chapter 18: Team Defensive Analytics
- Chapter 18: Exercises - Team Defensive Analytics
- Chapter 18: Quiz - Team Defensive Analytics
- Case Study 1: The 2004 Detroit Pistons - Team Defense Without a Superstar
- Case Study 2: The Utah Jazz's Rudy Gobert Era - Peak Drop Coverage (2017-2022)
- Chapter 18: Key Takeaways - Team Defensive Analytics
- Chapter 18: Further Reading - Team Defensive Analytics
-
Chapter 19: Lineup Optimization
- Chapter 19: Exercises - Lineup Optimization
- Chapter 19: Quiz - Lineup Optimization
- Case Study 1: The Golden State Warriors' Death Lineup (2015-2019)
- Case Study 2: The San Antonio Spurs' Beautiful Game - Lineup Optimization Through Ball Movement (2014 NBA Finals)
- Chapter 19: Key Takeaways - Lineup Optimization
- Chapter 19: Further Reading - Lineup Optimization
-
Chapter 20: Game Strategy and Situational Analysis
- Chapter 20: Exercises - Game Strategy and Situational Analysis
- Chapter 20: Quiz - Game Strategy and Situational Analysis
- Case Study 1: The 2016 NBA Finals Game 7 - End-of-Game Decision Analysis
- Case Study 2: Hack-a-Shaq and the Evolution of Intentional Fouling Strategy
- Chapter 20: Key Takeaways - Game Strategy and Situational Analysis
- Chapter 20: Further Reading - Game Strategy and Situational Analysis
-
Chapter 21: In-Game Win Probability
- Chapter 21: Exercises - In-Game Win Probability
- Chapter 21: Quiz - In-Game Win Probability
- Chapter 21: Case Study 1 - The 2016 NBA Finals Game 7: Win Probability in Action
- Chapter 21: Case Study 2 - Building and Validating an NBA Win Probability Model
- Chapter 21: Key Takeaways - In-Game Win Probability
- Chapter 21: Further Reading - In-Game Win Probability
Part 5: Predictive Modeling
-
Chapter 22: Player Performance Prediction
- Chapter 22: Player Performance Prediction - Exercises
- Chapter 22: Player Performance Prediction - Quiz
- Chapter 22: Case Study 1 - Projecting Giannis Antetokounmpo's Career Trajectory
- Chapter 22: Case Study 2 - The Decline of Carmelo Anthony: Projecting Aging Superstars
- Chapter 22: Player Performance Prediction - Key Takeaways
- Chapter 22: Player Performance Prediction - Further Reading
-
Chapter 23: Draft Modeling and Prospect Evaluation
- Chapter 23: Draft Modeling and Prospect Evaluation - Exercises
- Chapter 23: Draft Modeling and Prospect Evaluation - Quiz
- Chapter 23: Case Study 1 - The 2017 NBA Draft: Quantifying the Tatum vs. Fultz Decision
- Chapter 23: Case Study 2 - Finding Gems: Jokic, Siakam, and Identifying Late-Round Value
- Chapter 23: Draft Modeling and Prospect Evaluation - Key Takeaways
- Chapter 23: Draft Modeling and Prospect Evaluation - Further Reading
-
Chapter 24: Injury Risk and Load Management
- Chapter 24: Injury Risk and Load Management - Exercises
- Chapter 24: Injury Risk and Load Management - Quiz
- Chapter 24: Case Study 1 - The Toronto Raptors' Kawhi Leonard Load Management Strategy (2018-19)
- Chapter 24: Case Study 2 - Predicting and Managing ACL Injuries: Derrick Rose and the Cost of Catastrophic Injury
- Chapter 24: Injury Risk and Load Management - Key Takeaways
- Chapter 24: Injury Risk and Load Management - Further Reading
-
Chapter 25: Game Outcome Prediction
- Chapter 25: Game Outcome Prediction - Exercises
- Chapter 25: Game Outcome Prediction - Quiz
- Chapter 25: Case Study 1 - Building an Elo Rating System for NBA Prediction
- Chapter 25: Case Study 2 - Evaluating the Efficiency of NBA Betting Markets
- Chapter 25: Game Outcome Prediction - Key Takeaways
- Chapter 25: Game Outcome Prediction - Further Reading
Part 6: Advanced Topics and Applications
-
Chapter 26: Machine Learning in Basketball
- Chapter 26: Machine Learning in Basketball - Exercises
- Chapter 26: Machine Learning in Basketball - Quiz
- Chapter 26: Case Study 1 - Discovering Player Archetypes Through Clustering
- Chapter 26: Case Study 2 - Building a Draft Success Prediction Model with Gradient Boosting
- Chapter 26: Machine Learning in Basketball - Key Takeaways
- Chapter 26: Machine Learning in Basketball - Further Reading
-
Chapter 27: Computer Vision and Video Analysis
- Chapter 27: Computer Vision and Video Analysis - Exercises
- Chapter 27: Computer Vision and Video Analysis - Quiz
- Chapter 27: Case Study 1 - Building an Automated Shot Quality Model Using Tracking Data
- Chapter 27: Case Study 2 - Automated Play Classification Using Deep Learning
- Chapter 27: Computer Vision and Video Analysis - Key Takeaways
- Chapter 27: Computer Vision and Video Analysis - Further Reading
-
Chapter 28: Building a Basketball Analytics Career
- Chapter 28: Building a Basketball Analytics Career - Exercises
- Chapter 28: Building a Basketball Analytics Career - Quiz
- Chapter 28: Case Study 1 - Building an NBA Team Analytics Department from Scratch
- Chapter 28: Case Study 2 - Career Journey from College Student to NBA Team Analyst
- Chapter 28: Building a Basketball Analytics Career - Key Takeaways
- Chapter 28: Building a Basketball Analytics Career - Further Reading
Part 7: Capstone Projects
Professional Soccer Analytics and Visualization
Front Matter
Part I: Foundations of Soccer Analytics
- Part I: Foundations of Soccer Analytics
- Chapter 1: Introduction to Soccer Analytics
- Chapter 2: Data Sources and Collection in Soccer
- Chapter 3: Statistical Foundations for Soccer Analysis
- Chapter 4: Python Tools for Soccer Analytics
-
Chapter 5: Introduction to Soccer Metrics
- Chapter 5 Exercises: Introduction to Soccer Metrics
- Chapter 5 Self-Assessment Quiz
- Case Study 1: How FBref and StatsBomb Changed Public Soccer Discourse
- Case Study 2: Building a Player Evaluation Dashboard for a Scouting Department
- Chapter 5 Key Takeaways
- Further Reading: Introduction to Soccer Metrics
- Chapter 6: The Soccer Pitch as a Coordinate System
Part II: Core Analytics and Metrics
- Part II: Core Analytics and Metrics
- Chapter 7: Expected Goals (xG) Models
- Chapter 8: Expected Assists and Chance Creation
- Chapter 9: Expected Threat (xT) and Ball Progression
-
Chapter 10: Passing Networks and Analysis
- Chapter 10 Exercises: Passing Networks and Analysis
- Chapter 10 Quiz: Passing Networks and Analysis
- Case Study 1: Analyzing the 2018 World Cup Final Through Passing Networks
- Case Study 2: Identifying Team Playing Style Through Network Fingerprints
- Chapter 10: Key Takeaways
- Chapter 10: Further Reading
- Chapter 11: Possession and Territorial Control
Part III: Player and Team Analysis
- Part III: Player and Team Analysis
-
Chapter 12: Defensive Metrics and Analysis
- Chapter 12 Exercises: Defensive Metrics and Analysis
- Chapter 12 Quiz: Defensive Metrics and Analysis
- Case Study 1: Defensive Masterclass - France's 2018 World Cup Winning Defense
- Case Study 2: Defensive Style Archetypes - Center-Back Profiles Across European Football
- Chapter 12: Key Takeaways
- Chapter 12: Further Reading
- Chapter 13: Goalkeeper Analysis
- Chapter 14: Set Piece Analytics
-
Chapter 15: Player Performance Metrics
- Chapter 15 Exercises: Player Performance Metrics
- Chapter 15 Self-Assessment Quiz
- Case Study 1: Evaluating Premier League Midfielders — A Multi-Dimensional Approach
- Case Study 2: Finding the Next Virgil van Dijk — Player Similarity in Recruitment
- Chapter 15: Key Takeaways
- Further Reading: Player Performance Metrics
- Chapter 16: Team Performance Analysis
Part IV: Advanced Analytics Techniques
- Part IV: Advanced Analytics Techniques
- Chapter 17: Spatial Analysis and Pitch Control
- Chapter 18: Tracking Data Analytics
- Chapter 19: Machine Learning for Soccer
- Chapter 20: Predictive Modeling
- Chapter 21: Player Recruitment and Scouting
-
Chapter 22: Match Strategy and Tactics
- Chapter 22 Exercises: Match Strategy and Tactics
- Chapter 22 Quiz: Match Strategy and Tactics
- Case Study 1: Tactical Breakdown: How Real Madrid Adapted Against Liverpool in the Champions League Final
- Case Study 2: The Substitution That Changed Everything
- Chapter 22: Key Takeaways
- Chapter 22: Further Reading
- Chapter 23: Video Analysis and Computer Vision
Part V: Advanced Topics and Applications
- Part V: Advanced Topics and Applications
- Chapter 24: Deep Learning in Soccer Analytics
- Chapter 25: Economic Analysis and Player Valuation
- Chapter 26: Injury Prevention and Load Management
- Chapter 27: Real-Time Analytics and Decision Support
-
Chapter 28: Building an Analytics Department
- Chapter 28 Exercises: Building an Analytics Department
- Chapter 28 Quiz: Building an Analytics Department
- Case Study 1: From Zero to World Class --- How FC Midtjylland Built a Data-First Culture
- Case Study 2: Scaling Analytics at Manchester City Football Group
- Chapter 28 Key Takeaways: Building an Analytics Department
- Chapter 28 Further Reading: Building an Analytics Department
Part VI: Capstone and Future Directions
- Part VI: Capstone and Future Directions
-
Chapter 29: Comprehensive Case Studies
- Chapter 29 Exercises: Comprehensive Case Studies
- Chapter 29 Quiz: Comprehensive Case Studies
- Case Study 1: End-to-End Analytics --- From Raw Data to Boardroom Presentation
- Case Study 2: Leicester City's 2015--16 Title --- A Retrospective
- Chapter 29: Key Takeaways
- Further Reading: Comprehensive Case Studies
- Chapter 30: The Future of Soccer Analytics
Appendices
- Appendix A: Mathematical Foundations
- Appendix B: Statistical Tables and Soccer Benchmarks
- Appendix C: Python Quick Reference for Soccer Analytics
- Appendix D: Data Sources and Tools
- Appendix E: Glossary of Soccer Analytics Terms
- Appendix F: Mathematical and Code Notation Guide
- Appendix G: Answers to Selected Exercises
- Appendix H: Bibliography
The Sports Betting Textbook
Frontmatter
Part I: Foundations of Sports Betting
- Part I: Foundations of Sports Betting
-
Chapter 1: Introduction to Sports Betting
- Chapter 1 Exercises: Introduction to Sports Betting
- Chapter 1 Quiz: Introduction to Sports Betting
- Case Study 1: The Fall and Rise of Legal Sports Betting in America
- Case Study 2: Anatomy of a Sportsbook — How the Vig Really Works
- Chapter 1 Key Takeaways: Introduction to Sports Betting
- Chapter 1 Further Reading: Introduction to Sports Betting
- Chapter 2: Probability and Odds
-
Chapter 3: Expected Value and the Bettor's Edge
- Chapter 3 Exercises: Expected Value and the Bettor's Edge
- Chapter 3 Quiz: Expected Value and the Bettor's Edge
- Case Study: The Professional Bettor's First Season --- An EV Analysis
- Case Study: Closing Line Value --- The Ultimate Edge Metric
- Chapter 3 Key Takeaways: Expected Value and the Bettor's Edge
- Chapter 3 Further Reading: Expected Value and the Bettor's Edge
-
Chapter 4: Bankroll Management Fundamentals
- Chapter 4 Exercises: Bankroll Management Fundamentals
- Chapter 4 Quiz: Bankroll Management Fundamentals
- Case Study 1: Kelly Criterion in Action — Managing a $10,000 Betting Bankroll
- Case Study 2: Risk of Ruin — Why Smart Bettors Still Go Broke
- Chapter 4: Key Takeaways — Bankroll Management Fundamentals
- Chapter 4: Further Reading — Bankroll Management Fundamentals
- Chapter 5: Data Literacy for Bettors
Part II: Statistical Foundations
- Part II: Statistical Foundations for Sports Betting
-
Chapter 6: Descriptive Statistics for Sports
- Chapter 6 Exercises: Descriptive Statistics for Sports
- Chapter 6 Quiz: Descriptive Statistics for Sports
- Case Study 1: NFL Team Consistency — Which Teams Are Predictable?
- Case Study 2: The Home Court Advantage — A Statistical Breakdown
- Chapter 6 Key Takeaways: Descriptive Statistics for Sports
- Chapter 6 Further Reading: Descriptive Statistics for Sports
-
Chapter 7: Probability Distributions in Betting
- Chapter 7 Exercises: Probability Distributions in Betting
- Chapter 7 Quiz: Probability Distributions in Betting
- Case Study: Poisson Modeling of Soccer — Predicting Match Outcomes
- Case Study: Are NBA Win Streaks Real or Random?
- Chapter 7: Key Takeaways — Probability Distributions in Betting
- Chapter 7: Further Reading — Probability Distributions in Betting
-
Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing and Statistical Significance
- Chapter 8 Exercises: Hypothesis Testing and Statistical Significance
- Chapter 8 Quiz: Hypothesis Testing and Statistical Significance
- Case Study 1: Is This Bettor Skilled or Lucky? A Statistical Investigation
- Case Study 2: The Thursday Night Football Effect — Myth or Reality?
- Chapter 8: Key Takeaways
- Chapter 8: Further Reading
-
Chapter 9: Regression Analysis for Sports Modeling
- Chapter 9 Exercises: Regression Analysis for Sports Modeling
- Chapter 9 Quiz: Regression Analysis for Sports Modeling
- Case Study: Building an NFL Game Totals Model with Regression
- Case Study: Logistic Regression for NBA Moneyline Predictions
- Chapter 9 Key Takeaways: Regression Analysis for Sports Modeling
- Chapter 9 Further Reading: Regression Analysis for Sports Modeling
-
Chapter 10: Bayesian Thinking for Bettors
- Chapter 10 Exercises: Bayesian Thinking for Bettors
- Chapter 10 Quiz: Bayesian Thinking for Bettors
- Case Study: Bayesian Tracking of NFL Team Strength Through a Season
- Case Study: Hierarchical Bayesian Model for NBA Team Strength Estimation
- Chapter 10 Key Takeaways: Bayesian Thinking for Bettors
- Chapter 10 Further Reading: Bayesian Thinking for Bettors
Part III: The Betting Marketplace
- Part III: The Betting Marketplace
-
Chapter 11: Understanding Betting Markets
- Chapter 11 Exercises: Understanding Betting Markets
- Chapter 11 Quiz: Understanding Betting Markets
- Case Study: Tracking Line Movement in NFL Week 1
- Case Study: Are Closing Lines Really Efficient?
- Chapter 11 Key Takeaways: Understanding Betting Markets
- Chapter 11 Further Reading: Understanding Betting Markets
-
Chapter 12: Line Shopping and Market Analysis
- Chapter 12 Exercises: Line Shopping and Odds Optimization
- Chapter 12 Quiz: Line Shopping and Odds Optimization
- Case Study: The $14,000 Season --- How One Bettor's Line Shopping Transformed Their NFL Results
- Case Study: Closing Line Value Across 5,000 Bets --- Separating Skill from Luck
- Chapter 12 Key Takeaways: Line Shopping and Market Analysis
- Chapter 12 Further Reading: Line Shopping and Market Analysis
-
Chapter 13: Value Betting Theory and Practice
- Chapter 13 Exercises: Value Betting Theory and Practice
- Chapter 13 Quiz: Value Betting Theory and Practice
- Case Study: Building an Edge from Scratch --- One Model's Journey from Idea to Profit
- Case Study: The Decay and Renewal of a Betting Edge --- Adapting Through Three Market Regimes
- Chapter 13 Key Takeaways: Value Betting Theory and Practice
- Chapter 13 Further Reading: Value Betting Theory and Practice
-
Chapter 14: Advanced Bankroll and Staking Strategies
- Chapter 14 Exercises: Advanced Bankroll and Staking Strategies
- Chapter 14 Quiz: Advanced Bankroll and Staking Strategies
- Case Study 1: Building a Kelly-Optimal Portfolio for a Full NFL Sunday
- Case Study 2: Surviving a 30% Drawdown -- A Season-Long Bankroll Management Journal
- Chapter 14 Key Takeaways: Advanced Bankroll and Staking Strategies
- Chapter 14 Further Reading: Advanced Bankroll and Staking Strategies
Part IV: Sport-Specific Modeling
- Part IV: Sport-Specific Modeling
- Chapter 15: Modeling the NFL
- Chapter 16: Modeling the NBA
- Chapter 17: Modeling MLB
- Chapter 18: Modeling the NHL
-
Chapter 19: Modeling Soccer
- Chapter 19 Exercises: Modeling Soccer
- Chapter 19 Quiz: Modeling Soccer
- Case Study 1: Building and Backtesting a Dixon-Coles Model for the Premier League
- Case Study 2: The xG Regression Trade Across European Leagues
- Chapter 19: Key Takeaways - Modeling Soccer
- Chapter 19: Further Reading - Modeling Soccer
-
Chapter 20: Modeling College Sports
- Chapter 20 Exercises: Modeling College Sports
- Chapter 20 Quiz: Modeling College Sports
- Case Study 1: Building a Season-Long College Football Power Rating System
- Case Study 2: Exploiting College Football Market Inefficiencies
- Chapter 20: Key Takeaways - Modeling College Sports
- Chapter 20: Further Reading - Modeling College Sports
-
Chapter 21: Modeling Combat Sports and Tennis
- Chapter 21 Exercises: Modeling Combat Sports and Tennis
- Chapter 21 Quiz: Modeling Combat Sports and Tennis
- Case Study 1: Building a Surface-Adjusted Tennis Elo System for ATP Betting
- Case Study 2: MMA Fight Prediction System with Style Matchup and Physical Attributes
- Chapter 21: Key Takeaways - Modeling Combat Sports and Tennis
- Chapter 21: Further Reading - Modeling Combat Sports and Tennis
-
Chapter 22: Modeling Emerging Markets
- Chapter 22 Exercises: Modeling Emerging Markets
- Chapter 22 Quiz: Modeling Emerging Markets
- Case Study 1: Building an Esports Match Prediction System for CS2
- Case Study 2: Golf Tournament Prediction with Strokes Gained and Course Fit
- Chapter 22: Key Takeaways - Modeling Emerging Markets
- Chapter 22: Further Reading - Modeling Emerging Markets
Part V: Advanced Quantitative Methods
- Part V: Advanced Quantitative Methods
-
Chapter 23: Time Series Analysis for Betting
- Chapter 23 Exercises: Time Series Analysis for Betting
- Chapter 23 Quiz: Time Series Analysis for Betting
- Case Study 1: Detecting Team Performance Changepoints in the NBA
- Case Study 2: Mean Reversion in NFL Passing Efficiency
- Chapter 23 Key Takeaways: Time Series Analysis for Betting
- Chapter 23 Further Reading: Time Series Analysis for Betting
-
Chapter 24: Simulation and Monte Carlo Methods
- Chapter 24 Exercises: Simulation and Monte Carlo Methods
- Chapter 24 Quiz: Simulation and Monte Carlo Methods
- Case Study: Simulating an NBA Season to Identify Futures Market Inefficiencies
- Case Study: Bootstrap and Permutation Analysis of a Sports Betting Track Record
- Chapter 24 Key Takeaways: Simulation and Monte Carlo Methods
- Chapter 24 Further Reading: Simulation and Monte Carlo Methods
-
Chapter 25: Optimization Methods for Betting
- Chapter 25 Exercises: Optimization Methods for Betting
- Chapter 25 Quiz: Optimization Methods for Betting
- Case Study: Building an Automated Arbitrage Detection and Execution System
- Case Study: Portfolio Optimization for a Multi-Sport Betting Operation
- Chapter 25 Key Takeaways: Optimization Methods for Betting
- Chapter 25 Further Reading: Optimization Methods for Betting
-
Chapter 26: Ratings and Ranking Systems
- Chapter 26 Exercises: Ratings and Ranking Systems
- Chapter 26 Quiz: Ratings and Ranking Systems
- Case Study 1: Building an NFL Elo Rating System from Scratch
- Case Study 2: Ensemble Rating System for College Basketball
- Chapter 26 Key Takeaways: Ratings and Ranking Systems
- Chapter 26 Further Reading: Ratings and Ranking Systems
-
Chapter 27: Advanced Regression and Classification
- Chapter 27 Exercises: Advanced Regression and Classification
- Chapter 27 Quiz: Advanced Regression and Classification
- Case Study 1: XGBoost NBA Game Prediction with Calibration
- Case Study 2: SHAP-Driven Model Auditing for NFL Betting
- Chapter 27 Key Takeaways: Advanced Regression and Classification
- Chapter 27 Further Reading: Advanced Regression and Classification
Part VI: Machine Learning
- Part VI: Machine Learning for Sports Betting
-
Chapter 28: Feature Engineering for Sports Prediction
- Chapter 28 Exercises: Feature Engineering for Sports Betting
- Chapter 28 Quiz: Feature Engineering for Sports Betting
- Case Study 1: Feature Engineering for NFL Win Prediction
- Case Study 2: Temporal Features That Predict NBA Upsets
- Chapter 28 Key Takeaways: Feature Engineering for Sports Betting
- Chapter 28 Further Reading: Feature Engineering for Sports Betting
-
Chapter 29: Neural Networks for Sports Prediction
- Chapter 29 Exercises: Neural Networks for Sports Prediction
- Chapter 29 Quiz: Neural Networks for Sports Prediction
- Case Study 1: Entity Embeddings for NBA Team Representation
- Case Study 2: LSTM Models for Detecting NBA Team Performance Regime Changes
- Chapter 29 Key Takeaways: Neural Networks for Sports Prediction
- Chapter 29 Further Reading: Neural Networks for Sports Prediction
-
Chapter 30: Model Evaluation and Selection
- Chapter 30 Exercises: Model Evaluation and Selection
- Chapter 30 Quiz: Model Evaluation and Selection
- Case Study 1: Walk-Forward Evaluation of NBA Prediction Models
- Case Study 2: Calibration Analysis and Backtesting of an NBA Betting Model
- Chapter 30 Key Takeaways: Model Evaluation and Selection
- Chapter 30 Further Reading: Model Evaluation and Selection
-
Chapter 31: The Complete ML Betting Pipeline
- Chapter 31 Exercises: The Complete ML Betting Pipeline
- Chapter 31 Quiz: The Complete ML Betting Pipeline
- Case Study 1: Building an NBA Prediction Pipeline from Scratch
- Case Study 2: Detecting and Recovering from Pipeline Failures
- Chapter 31 Key Takeaways: The Complete ML Betting Pipeline
- Chapter 31 Further Reading: The Complete ML Betting Pipeline
-
Chapter 32: Natural Language Processing for Betting
- Chapter 32 Exercises: Natural Language Processing for Betting
- Chapter 32 Quiz: Natural Language Processing for Betting
- Case Study 1: Building an NBA Injury Sentiment Signal from Scratch
- Case Study 2: Measuring the Speed of Information in NFL Betting Markets
- Key Takeaways: Natural Language Processing for Betting
- Further Reading: Natural Language Processing for Betting
Part VII: Live Betting and Advanced Markets
- Part VII: Live Betting and Advanced Markets
- Chapter 33: Live and In-Play Betting
-
Chapter 34: Prop Bets and Player Markets
- Chapter 34 Exercises: Prop Bets and Player Markets
- Chapter 34 Quiz: Prop Bets and Player Markets
- Case Study 1: Building an NBA Player Prop Projection System
- Case Study 2: Same-Game Parlay Correlation Analysis and Value Detection
- Chapter 34: Key Takeaways -- Prop Bets and Player Markets
- Chapter 34: Further Reading -- Prop Bets and Player Markets
-
Chapter 35: Futures and Season-Long Markets
- Chapter 35 Exercises: Futures and Season-Long Markets
- Chapter 35 Quiz: Futures and Season-Long Markets
- Case Study 1: Building a Monte Carlo Win Total Projection System
- Case Study 2: Dynamic Futures Hedging and Portfolio Management
- Chapter 35: Key Takeaways -- Futures and Season-Long Markets
- Chapter 35: Further Reading -- Futures and Season-Long Markets
Part VIII: Psychology and Discipline
- Part VIII: Psychology and Discipline
-
Chapter 36: The Psychology of Betting
- Chapter 36 Exercises: The Psychology of Betting
- Chapter 36 Quiz: The Psychology of Betting
- Case Study 1: Bias Audit --- Analyzing 1,000 Betting Decisions
- Case Study 2: The Tilt Diary --- A Season of Emotional Tracking
- Chapter 36 Key Takeaways: The Psychology of Betting
- Chapter 36 Further Reading: The Psychology of Betting
-
Chapter 37: Discipline, Systems, and Record-Keeping
- Chapter 37 Exercises: Discipline, Systems, and Record-Keeping
- Chapter 37 Quiz: Discipline, Systems, and Record-Keeping
- Case Study 1: Building a Professional Betting Journal from Scratch
- Case Study 2: The Discipline Breakdown --- A Bettor's Worst Month
- Chapter 37 Key Takeaways: Discipline, Systems, and Record-Keeping
- Chapter 37 Further Reading: Discipline, Systems, and Record-Keeping
-
Chapter 38: Risk Management and Responsible Gambling
- Chapter 38 Exercises: Risk Management and Responsible Gambling
- Chapter 38 Quiz: Risk Management and Responsible Gambling
- Case Study 1: When the Safety Net Catches You --- A Loss Limit System in Action
- Case Study 2: Crossing the Line --- A Professional Bettor's Self-Assessment Journey
- Chapter 38 Key Takeaways
- Chapter 38 Further Reading
Part IX: Industry and Future
- Part IX: Industry and Future
-
Chapter 39: The Sports Betting Industry
- Chapter 39 Exercises: The Sports Betting Industry
- Chapter 39 Quiz: The Sports Betting Industry
- Case Study: Modeling Sportsbook Hold Percentages Across Market Types
- Case Study: Simulating Sportsbook Customer Economics and Profitability
- Chapter 39 Key Takeaways: The Sports Betting Industry
- Chapter 39 Further Reading: The Sports Betting Industry
-
Chapter 40: The Future of Sports Betting
- Chapter 40 Exercises: The Future of Sports Betting
- Chapter 40 Quiz: The Future of Sports Betting
- Case Study: Building a Betting Exchange Simulator and Trading Strategy
- Case Study: Micro-Betting Pricing and Profitability Analysis
- Chapter 40 Key Takeaways: The Future of Sports Betting
- Chapter 40 Further Reading: The Future of Sports Betting
Part X: Capstone
- Part X: Capstone
-
Chapter 41: Putting It All Together
- Chapter 41 Exercises: Putting It All Together
- Chapter 41 Quiz: Putting It All Together
- Case Study 41.1: Building an End-to-End NBA Betting System
- Case Study 41.2: Multi-Sport Portfolio Management and Performance Attribution
- Chapter 41 Key Takeaways: Putting It All Together
- Chapter 41 Further Reading: Putting It All Together
-
Chapter 42: Research Frontiers
- Chapter 42 Exercises: Research Frontiers
- Chapter 42 Quiz: Research Frontiers
- Case Study 42.1: Applying Causal Inference to NBA Rest Advantage
- Case Study 42.2: Reinforcement Learning for Adaptive Bankroll Management
- Chapter 42 Key Takeaways: Research Frontiers
- Chapter 42 Further Reading: Research Frontiers
- Capstone Project 1: Complete NFL Prediction and Betting System
- Capstone Project 2: Multi-Sport Arbitrage and Value Detection Platform
- Capstone Project 3: Season-Long Betting Simulation Challenge