Part II: Core Metrics
"Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted." — William Bruce Cameron
The Language of Football Analysis
Welcome to Part II of College Football Analytics and Visualization. Having built your foundational skills in Part I, you are now ready to learn the metrics that form the vocabulary of modern football analysis. These six chapters will transform how you understand and evaluate football performance.
What You Will Learn
Chapter 6: Traditional Football Statistics begins with the metrics everyone knows—passing yards, rushing touchdowns, completion percentage. You will understand what these statistics capture, their limitations, and when they remain useful despite their simplicity.
Chapter 7: Advanced Passing Metrics revolutionizes how you evaluate quarterbacks and passing attacks. You will learn about air yards, depth of target, completion probability, yards after catch, and how to separate quarterback skill from receiver contribution.
Chapter 8: Rushing and Running Game Analysis tackles one of the hardest problems in football analytics: evaluating the run game. You will explore yards before contact, yards after contact, success rate, and how to account for blocking in running back evaluation.
Chapter 9: Defensive Metrics and Analysis addresses the challenge of quantifying defense. You will learn metrics for pass coverage, pass rush, run defense, and team defense—understanding both individual and collective performance.
Chapter 10: Special Teams Analytics covers the often-overlooked third phase of football. You will analyze kicking, punting, returns, and the critical fourth down and two-point conversion decisions that can swing games.
Chapter 11: Efficiency Metrics (EPA, Success Rate) introduces the foundational advanced metrics that have transformed football analysis. You will build an Expected Points model, calculate Success Rate, and understand Win Probability Added—the metrics that top analysts rely on daily.
Why Metrics Matter
Football generates an overwhelming amount of data. Every play produces dozens of measurable outcomes. The challenge isn't collecting data—it's knowing which data matters and how to interpret it.
Metrics are tools for thinking. A good metric:
- Captures something meaningful about performance
- Provides context that raw numbers lack
- Enables comparison across different situations
- Predicts future outcomes better than alternatives
The metrics in Part II have been developed and refined over years by researchers and practitioners. You will learn not just how to calculate them, but when to use them and what they actually tell you.
The Evolution of Football Metrics
Football analytics has evolved through three generations:
Generation 1: Counting Statistics Yards, touchdowns, completions. Simple to calculate, easy to understand, but missing crucial context.
Generation 2: Rate Statistics Yards per attempt, completion percentage, passer rating. Better than raw counts, but still limited in what they capture.
Generation 3: Context-Aware Metrics EPA, Success Rate, Win Probability. These metrics account for game situation, down and distance, field position, and more. They represent the current frontier of public football analytics.
Part II walks you through all three generations, building understanding progressively.
Connecting Metrics to Decisions
As you learn each metric, consider how it connects to real decisions:
- Player Evaluation: Which metrics best identify talented players?
- Game Planning: What metrics reveal opponent tendencies and weaknesses?
- In-Game Decisions: How do metrics inform fourth down choices or timeout usage?
- Roster Building: Which positions provide the most value per dollar/scholarship?
Metrics without application are trivia. Metrics connected to decisions are analytics.
Time Investment
Part II comprises approximately 36 hours of material:
| Chapter | Estimated Time |
|---|---|
| 6. Traditional Football Statistics | 5 hours |
| 7. Advanced Passing Metrics | 6 hours |
| 8. Rushing and Running Game Analysis | 5 hours |
| 9. Defensive Metrics and Analysis | 6 hours |
| 10. Special Teams Analytics | 5 hours |
| 11. Efficiency Metrics (EPA, Success Rate) | 7 hours |
Chapter 11 is intentionally longer—EPA and related metrics are fundamental to modern analysis and deserve thorough treatment.
What Comes Next
After mastering the metrics in Part II, Part III: Visualization will teach you to communicate your findings effectively. The best analysis is useless if you cannot convey it clearly. You will learn to create charts, dashboards, and visualizations that make your insights actionable.
"In God we trust. All others must bring data." — W. Edwards Deming
Ready to continue? Turn to Chapter 6: Traditional Football Statistics.