Chapter 11: Quiz

Instructions

Answer all 30 questions. Show your work for calculation questions.

Section A: Expected Points Concepts (Questions 1-8)

Question 1: Expected Points (EP) represents: - A) The guaranteed points a team will score from a position - B) The average points scored from a position based on historical data - C) The maximum points possible from a position - D) The probability of scoring a touchdown

Question 2: Which of the following game states has the HIGHEST expected points? - A) 1st & 10 at own 35 - B) 2nd & 5 at midfield - C) 3rd & 2 at opponent's 40 - D) 1st & goal at opponent's 3

Question 3: On average, how much expected points does moving from 1st down to 2nd down cost (all else equal)? - A) About 0.2 EP - B) About 0.4 EP - C) About 0.7 EP - D) About 1.0 EP

Question 4: Expected points at the opponent's 1-yard line on 1st down is approximately: - A) 3.0 EP - B) 4.5 EP - C) 5.5-6.0 EP - D) 7.0 EP

Question 5: A team at their own 20-yard line, 1st & 10 typically has an EP closest to: - A) -1.5 EP - B) -0.5 EP - C) +0.5 EP - D) +1.5 EP

Question 6: The primary factors in a basic EP model include: - A) Only field position - B) Field position and down - C) Field position, down, and distance - D) Field position, down, distance, and time remaining

Question 7: Why does EP at the opponent's goal line (1st & goal at 1) not equal 7.0? - A) Teams don't always score touchdowns from there - B) The defense always wins at the goal line - C) Extra points are not guaranteed - D) Both A and C

Question 8: Which zone of the field has the steepest EP gradient (most change per yard)? - A) Own 0-20 - B) Own 20-50 - C) Opponent's 50-20 - D) Opponent's 20-0 (red zone)

Section B: EPA Calculations (Questions 9-15)

Question 9: If EP before a play is +1.2 and EP after is +2.4, the EPA is: - A) +1.2 - B) +2.4 - C) +3.6 - D) -1.2

Question 10: A play results in a touchdown. If EP before was +3.5, what is the EPA? - A) +3.5 - B) +7.0 - C) +3.5 (7.0 - 3.5) - D) +10.5

Question 11: An interception is returned to the opponent's 30-yard line. If EP before the play was +2.5, and opponent's EP at their 30 is +1.2, what is the EPA? - A) -2.5 - B) -3.7 - C) -1.2 - D) -1.3

Question 12: A sack for -8 yards on 2nd & 6 from the opponent's 40 results in 3rd & 14 from the opponent's 48. If EP before was +2.0 and EP after is +0.8, the EPA is: - A) -0.8 - B) -1.2 - C) +0.8 - D) -2.8

Question 13: Which play typically has the MOST negative EPA? - A) Incomplete pass on 1st down - B) 3-yard run on 3rd & 5 - C) Interception - D) Sack for -5 yards

Question 14: Average EPA per play for an elite college offense is approximately: - A) +0.05 to +0.10 - B) +0.15 to +0.25 - C) +0.30 to +0.40 - D) +0.50 or higher

Question 15: The EPA of a completed pass for exactly 0 yards on 2nd & 10 is: - A) +0.0 (no yards, no EPA) - B) Slightly negative (down advanced) - C) Slightly positive (clock stopped) - D) Depends entirely on field position

Section C: Success Rate (Questions 16-22)

Question 16: The standard success threshold for a 1st down play is: - A) 30% of the distance - B) 40% of the distance - C) 50% of the distance - D) 100% of the distance

Question 17: A 5-yard run on 2nd & 8 is considered: - A) Successful (more than half) - B) Unsuccessful (less than half) - C) Successful (any positive gain) - D) Depends on field position

Question 18: Which play is considered successful under standard thresholds? - A) 3-yard run on 1st & 10 - B) 4-yard pass on 2nd & 10 - C) 6-yard run on 3rd & 7 - D) 8-yard pass on 2nd & 15

Question 19: A team has 120 successful plays out of 280 total plays. Their success rate is: - A) 38.7% - B) 42.9% - C) 47.2% - D) 53.1%

Question 20: An elite college offense typically has an overall success rate of: - A) 35-40% - B) 40-45% - C) 47-52% - D) 55-60%

Question 21: "Explosive play rate" for passes is typically defined as completions of: - A) 10+ yards - B) 15+ yards - C) 20+ yards - D) 25+ yards

Question 22: A team has 45% success rate but negative total EPA. This suggests: - A) Calculation error - B) High turnover rate - C) Poor explosive play rate - D) Both B and C

Section C: Combined Analysis (Questions 23-27)

Question 23: A running back has high success rate (48%) but low EPA per carry (+0.02). This profile suggests: - A) Many short gains, few big plays - B) Many big plays, many negative plays - C) Balanced performance - D) Poor blocking scheme

Question 24: Which combination typically indicates the most explosive offense? - A) High EPA, high success rate - B) High EPA, moderate success rate - C) Moderate EPA, high success rate - D) High EPA, low success rate

Question 25: When comparing two quarterbacks, EPA per dropback is superior to passer rating because: - A) EPA accounts for game situation - B) EPA includes sack impact - C) EPA values all outcomes contextually - D) All of the above

Question 26: A team's passing EPA per play is +0.18 and rushing EPA per play is +0.04. Based on efficiency alone, they should: - A) Always pass - B) Run more to balance the offense - C) Consider game situation when deciding - D) Abandon the run entirely

Question 27: Negative EPA in the red zone (opponent's 20 and in) suggests: - A) The team is scoring efficiently - B) The team is struggling to convert opportunities - C) Field position has low leverage - D) Sample size is too small

Section D: Applications and Limitations (Questions 28-30)

Question 28: The main limitation of player-level EPA is: - A) It's too complicated to calculate - B) Credit assignment between players is difficult - C) It doesn't work for defense - D) Sample sizes are always too small

Question 29: When using EPA for predictive purposes, you should: - A) Use raw EPA as-is - B) Regress to the mean for small samples - C) Only use EPA from close games - D) Ignore turnovers

Question 30: "Garbage time" filtering is important in EPA analysis because: - A) Play-calling changes when games are decided - B) Player effort may decrease - C) The data misrepresents typical performance - D) All of the above

Calculation Problems

Problem 1 (5 points)

Calculate the EPA for each play in this sequence:

Given EP values: - 1st & 10 at own 25: +0.2 EP - 2nd & 3 at own 32: +0.9 EP - 1st & 10 at own 42: +1.4 EP - 2nd & 8 at own 44: +1.2 EP - 1st & 10 at opponent's 41: +2.1 EP

Plays: a) 7-yard pass from own 25 to own 32 (2nd & 3) b) 10-yard run from own 32 to own 42 (1st & 10) c) 2-yard run from own 42 to own 44 (2nd & 8) d) 15-yard pass from own 44 to opponent's 41 (1st & 10)

Problem 2 (5 points)

Calculate success rate for this drive:

Play Down Distance Yards Gained
1 1st 10 5
2 2nd 5 3
3 3rd 2 4
4 1st 10 2
5 2nd 8 4
6 3rd 4 1
7 4th 3 (punted)

Calculate: a) Success rate for plays 1-6 b) Early down success rate (1st & 2nd) c) Third down conversion rate

Problem 3 (5 points)

Compare these two quarterbacks:

QB A: - 350 dropbacks - Total EPA: +42 - Success rate: 51% - Interceptions: 5 - Sacks: 18

QB B: - 320 dropbacks - Total EPA: +38 - Success rate: 44% - Interceptions: 8 - Sacks: 12

Calculate: a) EPA per dropback for each b) Which QB is more efficient? c) Which QB is more consistent? d) Which QB would you prefer and why?

Answer Key

Multiple Choice

  1. B) The average points scored from a position based on historical data - EP is derived from historical outcomes.

  2. D) 1st & goal at opponent's 3 - Closest to guaranteed touchdown, EP ~5.5-6.0.

  3. B) About 0.4 EP - Each down advancement typically costs 0.4-0.5 EP.

  4. C) 5.5-6.0 EP - High probability of TD but not guaranteed.

  5. B) -0.5 EP - Deep in own territory typically yields slightly negative expected value.

  6. C) Field position, down, and distance - The three core components of basic EP.

  7. D) Both A and C - Teams don't always score TDs, and XPs aren't guaranteed.

  8. D) Opponent's 20-0 (red zone) - Each yard is worth more as you approach the goal line.

  9. A) +1.2 - EPA = EP_after - EP_before = 2.4 - 1.2 = 1.2

  10. C) +3.5 - EPA = 7.0 (TD value) - 3.5 (EP before) = 3.5

  11. B) -3.7 - EPA = -(opponent's EP) - (your EP before) = -1.2 - 2.5 = -3.7

  12. B) -1.2 - EPA = 0.8 - 2.0 = -1.2

  13. C) Interception - Turnovers typically cost 4+ expected points.

  14. B) +0.15 to +0.25 - Elite offenses average 0.15-0.25 EPA per play.

  15. B) Slightly negative - Advanced the down without gaining yards costs EP.

  16. B) 40% of the distance - 4 yards on 1st & 10.

  17. A) Successful (more than half) - 5 yards > 50% of 8 = 4 yards.

  18. D) 8-yard pass on 2nd & 15 - 8 > 7.5 (50% of 15).

  19. B) 42.9% - 120/280 = 0.429

  20. C) 47-52% - Elite offenses exceed 47% success rate.

  21. B) 15+ yards - Standard threshold for explosive passes.

  22. D) Both B and C - High turnover rate and lack of explosives can explain this.

  23. A) Many short gains, few big plays - Consistent but limited upside.

  24. A) High EPA, high success rate - Both efficient and explosive = elite.

  25. D) All of the above - EPA provides complete contextual evaluation.

  26. C) Consider game situation when deciding - Pure efficiency doesn't account for game state, clock management.

  27. B) The team is struggling to convert opportunities - Red zone EPA should be positive.

  28. B) Credit assignment between players is difficult - Multiple players contribute to each play.

  29. B) Regress to the mean for small samples - EPA is noisy in small samples.

  30. D) All of the above - Garbage time distorts true efficiency measures.

Calculation Problems

Problem 1: a) EPA = 0.9 - 0.2 = +0.7 b) EPA = 1.4 - 0.9 = +0.5 c) EPA = 1.2 - 1.4 = -0.2 d) EPA = 2.1 - 1.2 = +0.9

Total drive EPA = 0.7 + 0.5 - 0.2 + 0.9 = +1.9

Problem 2: a) Success determination: - Play 1: 5 yards on 1st & 10 → 5 ≥ 4 (40%) → Success - Play 2: 3 yards on 2nd & 5 → 3 ≥ 2.5 (50%) → Success - Play 3: 4 yards on 3rd & 2 → 4 ≥ 2 (100%) → Success - Play 4: 2 yards on 1st & 10 → 2 < 4 (40%) → Failure - Play 5: 4 yards on 2nd & 8 → 4 = 4 (50%) → Success - Play 6: 1 yard on 3rd & 4 → 1 < 4 (100%) → Failure

Success rate = 4/6 = 66.7%

b) Early downs (plays 1, 2, 4, 5): 3 successes / 4 plays = 75%

c) Third down conversion rate: 1/2 = 50% (play 3 converted, play 6 failed)

Problem 3: a) EPA per dropback: - QB A: 42 / 350 = +0.120 - QB B: 38 / 320 = +0.119

b) Essentially equal in EPA per dropback (A slightly higher at 0.120 vs 0.119)

c) QB A is more consistent - Higher success rate (51% vs 44%), fewer interceptions (5 vs 8)

d) Prefer QB A because: - Marginally higher EPA per dropback - Significantly higher success rate (more consistent) - Fewer interceptions (better ball security) - Despite more sacks, overall production is similar with less risk - Higher floor, similar ceiling