Case Study: How Analytics Changed the 2019 LSU Offense

"We studied the numbers, and the numbers said to throw the ball." — Joe Brady, LSU Passing Game Coordinator (2019)

Executive Summary

The 2019 LSU Tigers produced one of the greatest offensive seasons in college football history, winning the national championship behind Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow. What made this team extraordinary wasn't just talent—it was a fundamental strategic shift driven by analytics. This case study examines how data-informed decisions transformed LSU from a traditional running team into a record-setting passing attack.

Skills Applied: - Analyzing offensive efficiency data - Understanding scheme and personnel interactions - Recognizing how analytics informs strategic decisions

Background

LSU's Historical Identity

Louisiana State University had long been known for a specific style of football: dominant defense, powerful running game, conservative passing. The "SEC-style" offense relied on physical play, field position, and limiting mistakes.

This identity produced results. LSU won national championships in 2003 and 2007 under Nick Saban and Les Miles, respectively. Both teams featured top-10 defenses and efficient but unspectacular offenses.

But by 2018, the college football landscape had shifted. The spread offense had proliferated. Quarterbacks threw 50 times per game at some programs. Points per game increased across the sport. LSU's traditional approach began looking outdated.

The 2018 Season: A Wake-Up Call

LSU went 10-3 in 2018—a good season by most standards but disappointing by LSU expectations. More concerning than the record was how the team lost.

In a mid-season matchup against Alabama, LSU fell 29-0. The Tigers managed just 196 total yards against the Crimson Tide. Their offense looked primitive against Alabama's athletic defense.

Head coach Ed Orgeron recognized the problem. In the modern game, you couldn't win championships with a one-dimensional offense. Something had to change.

The Transformation

Orgeron made a bold hire: Joe Brady, a 29-year-old assistant from the NFL's New Orleans Saints. Brady had worked under Sean Payton, one of the NFL's most innovative offensive minds. More importantly, Brady brought an analytical approach to offense.

The change was immediate and dramatic.

LSU went from an above-average offense to a historic one. Joe Burrow went from a game manager to the most productive quarterback in college football history.

The Analytics-Driven Changes

Change #1: More Passing, Smarter Passing

The first change was simple: throw the ball more. But it wasn't just volume—it was where and when LSU threw.

Pre-Snap Motion

Brady introduced extensive pre-snap motion, a concept borrowed from the Saints. Motion serves multiple purposes: - Reveals coverage (man or zone) before the snap - Creates favorable matchups through alignment shifts - Forces defenders to communicate, creating confusion

LSU used pre-snap motion on 61% of passing plays in 2019, among the highest rates in college football. This wasn't aesthetic—it was analytical. Motion provided information that improved decision-making.

Quick Passing Game

Instead of long-developing plays that invited pressure, LSU emphasized quick passes that got the ball out in under 2.5 seconds. These plays: - Reduced sacks and negative plays - Put playmakers in space to create after the catch - Were harder to defend because timing made them completion-ready before coverage arrived

Analytics showed that quick passes had higher completion rates and comparable EPA to longer-developing plays, with less variance (fewer sacks).

RPOs (Run-Pass Options)

LSU dramatically increased usage of RPOs—plays where the quarterback reads a defender and decides to hand off or throw based on that defender's action.

RPOs exploit the numbers game. If a defender commits to stopping the run, the pass opens up. If the defender respects the pass, the run is available. Analytics showed RPOs were efficient against most defensive structures.

Change #2: Field Position and Play Calling

Traditional football wisdom segments the field into zones with different philosophies: - Own 0-20: Be conservative - Own 20-opponent 35: Be balanced - Red zone: Score touchdowns

Brady's approach was more nuanced. Analytics showed that: - Aggressiveness earlier in drives paid off in field position gains - Red zone passing efficiency was underutilized by most teams - Tempo kept defenses from substituting and adjusting

LSU called plays with these insights. They passed early and often, even from their own end of the field. They didn't tighten up in the red zone. The result: more touchdowns, fewer field goals.

Change #3: Personnel and Formation Innovation

11 Personnel Dominance

NFL analytics had shown that 11 personnel (1 running back, 1 tight end, 3 wide receivers) was the most efficient personnel grouping in modern football. It spread the defense and created mismatches.

LSU adopted 11 personnel as their base in 2019, a departure from SEC tradition. The personnel grouping: - Put athletes in space - Forced defenses to defend sideline-to-sideline - Made Joe Burrow's reads easier

Empty Formations

LSU also used empty backfield formations (5 receivers, no running back) more than most college teams. Analytics showed that while empty took away the running threat, it created coverage stress that led to completions.

Burrow's 2019 highlights include multiple touchdowns from empty formations where defenses simply couldn't cover all five receivers.

Joe Burrow: The Perfect Fit

The strategic changes would have meant nothing without a quarterback who could execute them. Joe Burrow was that quarterback—but even his emergence reflected analytical insight.

The Decision to Use Burrow

Burrow had transferred to LSU from Ohio State, where he backed up Dwayne Haskins. His 2018 numbers were unremarkable: 57.8% completion rate, 16 touchdowns, 5 interceptions.

But film study and analytics suggested potential. Burrow: - Showed elite pocket movement and pressure handling - Made accurate throws when receivers were open - Processed quickly enough for a timing-based offense

The analytics bet on Burrow proved spectacularly right. In 2019, he completed 76.3% of his passes (NCAA record), threw 60 touchdowns (NCAA record), and won the Heisman Trophy by the largest margin in history.

Burrow's Decision-Making

Burrow's brilliance wasn't just physical—it was analytical. He identified coverages pre-snap, went to the right read consistently, and avoided negative plays.

His 2019 statistics reflected elite decision-making: - 6 interceptions in 527 attempts (1.1% INT rate) - 8 sacks in 15 games (one of the lowest sack rates in college football) - 10.8 yards per attempt (extraordinary efficiency)

The scheme put Burrow in positions to succeed, and Burrow executed at the highest level.

The Results: A Historic Season

Regular Season Dominance

LSU went 13-0 in the regular season, winning games by an average of 26 points. The offense scored: - 42 points against Florida (ranked #7) - 46 points against Alabama (ranked #2) - 50 points against Texas A&M - 56 points against Ole Miss - 58 points against Vanderbilt

No defense could slow them. The nation's best defensive coordinators tried zone, man, pressure, and prevent—LSU had answers for everything.

The Alabama Game

The November showdown with Alabama showcased the transformation. In 2018, LSU had been shut out 29-0. In 2019, they won 46-41 in a shootout.

The 46 points were the most Alabama had ever allowed. LSU's passing attack overwhelmed a defense loaded with future NFL players. The game illustrated how far the Tigers had come—and how analytics-informed offense could challenge any defense.

Playoff and Championship

LSU demolished Oklahoma 63-28 in the Peach Bowl semifinal. In the national championship, they beat Clemson 42-25—hanging 42 on a Clemson defense that had allowed more than 20 points just once all season.

The championship game featured: - 463 passing yards from Burrow - 5 passing touchdowns - 75.9% completion rate

It was the culmination of a season-long offensive clinic.

Analytical Framework: What Made It Work?

EPA Analysis

Expected Points Added provides a framework for understanding LSU's dominance:

LSU's passing game was historically efficient. Their +0.42 EPA per pass attempt was more than five times the national average. Every pass play added nearly half an expected point—meaning LSU could score almost at will.

Success Rate

Success Rate measures the percentage of plays that achieve "success" (40% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, 100% on 3rd/4th down).

LSU succeeded on nearly 58% of plays—dominant by any standard. Their third-down rate was particularly impressive, reflecting the scheme's ability to create manageable distances and then convert.

Explosive Play Rate

Explosive plays (20+ yards) swing games. LSU created them at historic rates:

• 127 explosive pass plays (most in FBS)
• 31 explosive run plays
• 16.2% of plays were explosive (FBS average: 9.8%)

The combination of high success rate (avoiding negative plays) and high explosive rate (creating big plays) made LSU essentially unstoppable.

Lessons for Analytics

1. Strategy and Talent Are Complementary

LSU had talented players before 2019. What changed was strategy. The analytics-informed approach maximized what the players could do.

This illustrates a key point: analytics doesn't replace talent, and talent doesn't replace strategy. The best outcomes come from matching scheme to personnel with analytical rigor.

2. Analytics Can Inform Cultural Change

LSU's transformation required changing institutional culture. The "ground and pound" identity had to yield to passing efficiency. Analytics provided the evidence needed to convince stakeholders—coaches, players, administrators—that change was necessary.

3. Quick Adoption Can Create Massive Edges

LSU's competitors hadn't yet adapted their defenses to the style of offense LSU deployed. First-mover advantage in adopting analytically-informed strategies can produce outsized results before the rest of the sport catches up.

4. Personnel Matters

The scheme wouldn't have worked without players who fit it. Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Joe Burrow were ideal for a spread passing attack. Analytics informed both the scheme choice and how to maximize specific players.

Discussion Questions

1. Why didn't LSU's competitors adjust faster? Alabama's defense had a week to prepare and still allowed 46 points. What does this suggest about the difficulty of defending analytically-optimized offenses?

2. Can the 2019 LSU model be replicated? What would a program need—in terms of personnel, coaching, and organizational support—to attempt a similar transformation?

3. What's the defensive counter? If offenses continue optimizing toward quick passes and spread formations, how should defenses evolve?

4. Role of the coordinator: Joe Brady got significant credit for the transformation. How should credit be distributed among coaches, analysts, and players when analytics-informed strategies succeed?

5. Sustainability: LSU regressed in 2020 after Brady left for the NFL. What does this suggest about the sustainability of analytics-driven programs?

Your Turn: Mini-Project

Option A: Comparative Analysis

Compare LSU's 2018 and 2019 offenses using publicly available statistics: - Identify 3-5 metrics that best capture the transformation - Create visualizations showing the changes - Explain what the numbers reveal about the strategic shift

Option B: Scheme Study

Watch 5-10 plays from LSU's 2019 season (many are available online). For each play: - Identify the formation and personnel - Note any pre-snap motion - Describe what made the play successful or unsuccessful - Connect observations to analytical concepts from this case study

Option C: Program Analysis

Choose a current college football team and analyze whether a "2019 LSU-style" transformation could work: - What personnel do they have? - What is their current offensive identity? - What analytics-informed changes might improve their offense? - What barriers exist to making those changes?

Key Takeaways

1. Analytics informed LSU's strategic shift from traditional SEC football to modern spread passing, contributing to one of history's greatest offensive seasons.

2. Specific analytical insights included the value of pre-snap motion, quick passing, RPOs, 11 personnel, and aggressive play-calling.

3. The transformation required cultural change as much as schematic change—convincing a traditional program to embrace a new identity.

4. Scheme and personnel worked together. The strategy maximized Joe Burrow's decision-making and the receiving corps' playmaking ability.

5. The results were historically dominant: records for points, passing yards, EPA, and success rate on the way to a national championship.

References

• ESPN. "Inside the 2019 LSU offense: How Joe Brady designed the most productive attack in college football history."
• Sports Info Solutions. "The Analytics Behind LSU's Transformation."
• Pro Football Focus. "LSU's offense was historic. Here's how they did it."
• The Athletic. "How Joe Brady changed LSU—and college football."