Chapter 19: Quiz - Player Performance Forecasting

Instructions

Choose the best answer for each question. Questions cover projection methods, aging curves, and position-specific considerations.

Section 1: Regression and Projection Basics (Questions 1-10)

Question 1

Why is regression to the mean necessary in player projections?

A) Players always get worse over time B) Sample sizes are finite and extreme performances partly reflect luck C) League averages change every year D) It makes projections easier to calculate

Question 2

A running back has 5.2 Y/C on 80 carries. League average is 4.3 Y/C. The stabilization point is 200 carries. What is his reliability weight?

A) 0.29 B) 0.40 C) 0.60 D) 0.80

Question 3

Using the same scenario as Q2, what is his projected Y/C?

A) 4.3 B) 4.56 C) 4.78 D) 5.2

Question 4

In Marcel projections, the typical year weights are 5/4/3. This means:

A) Current year counts 5x as much as two years ago B) Only 3 years of data are ever used C) Current year is 5/12 of the total weight D) All of the above

Question 5

Which statistic typically requires the MOST regression to mean?

A) Completion percentage B) Catch rate C) Touchdown rate D) Yards per attempt

Question 6

A quarterback threw 450 passes. The stabilization point for Y/A is 300. His reliability is:

A) 0.40 B) 0.50 C) 0.60 D) 0.67

Question 7

Why do projection systems weight recent seasons more heavily?

A) Older data is less accurate B) Players' true talent changes over time C) It's computationally simpler D) League rules change constantly

Question 8

When projecting a player's first season (no prior data), the best approach is:

A) Use zero for all statistics B) Use league average as the projection C) Use comparable players' averages D) Both B and C are reasonable approaches

Question 9

The formula reliability = n / (n + stabilization) implies:

A) More data always means higher projections B) Reliability approaches 1.0 asymptotically C) Stabilization point is where reliability = 0.5 D) Both B and C

Question 10

A receiver has 9.5 Y/Target on 45 targets. With stabilization at 100 targets, his reliability is approximately:

A) 0.31 B) 0.45 C) 0.55 D) 0.69

Section 2: Aging Curves (Questions 11-17)

Question 11

Which position typically has the earliest peak age?

A) Quarterback B) Running back C) Wide receiver D) Tight end

Question 12

A 24-year-old running back is projected for 1200 yards. Using a peak age of 25 and 5% annual decline rate, his projection at age 28 is approximately:

A) 1020 yards B) 1080 yards C) 1140 yards D) 1200 yards

Question 13

Why do quarterbacks have later peak ages than running backs?

A) QBs take longer to learn the playbook B) The position relies more on experience/processing than athleticism C) QBs are protected by rules D) All of the above contribute

Question 14

A player in his development phase (before peak) should be projected:

A) With negative aging adjustment B) At current level (no adjustment) C) With slight positive adjustment for improvement D) Using only comparable players

Question 15

The decline rate for RBs (4-6% per year) is much higher than QBs (1-2%) because:

A) RBs take more physical punishment B) RBs rely more on speed and burst C) Offensive lines protect QBs better D) Both A and B

Question 16

When should aging curves NOT be the primary projection factor?

A) Projecting a 22-year-old QB B) Projecting a 30-year-old RB C) Projecting a player returning from major injury D) Projecting a player changing teams

Question 17

A 27-year-old WR is at his peak age. His year-over-year projection adjustment should be:

A) -3% (decline) B) 0% (at peak) C) +2% (still improving) D) Depends on individual player

Section 3: Position-Specific Projections (Questions 18-24)

Question 18

QB efficiency metrics should be adjusted for:

A) Offensive line quality B) Receiver quality C) Scheme complexity D) All of the above

Question 19

Why is RB yards per carry particularly unstable?

A) Small sample sizes B) Heavy dependence on offensive line C) Goal line vs. regular carries mix D) All of the above

Question 20

When projecting WR targets, the most important factor is often:

A) The receiver's catch rate B) Target competition on the roster C) Historical yards per route run D) Quarterback accuracy

Question 21

A running back's receiving projection should:

A) Be projected separately from rushing B) Use different stabilization points than rushing C) Consider role in the offense D) All of the above

Question 22

For QBs, which metric combination best indicates elite performance?

A) High volume (attempts) + average efficiency B) Average volume + high efficiency C) High completion % regardless of depth D) High TD rate regardless of attempts

Question 23

Why might a WR's yards per target regress more than catch rate?

A) Y/Target is more influenced by big plays (variance) B) Catch rate is fully within receiver control C) Y/Target depends on target quality D) Both A and C

Question 24

When projecting a TE, the biggest uncertainty is typically:

A) Receiving efficiency B) Target share / role in offense C) Blocking responsibilities vs. routes D) Both B and C

Section 4: Comparable Players (Questions 25-28)

Question 25

The purpose of finding comparable players is to:

A) Replace statistical projections entirely B) Provide context for statistical projections C) Identify potential trade targets D) Predict draft position

Question 26

When selecting features for player comparisons, you should:

A) Use as many features as possible B) Use rate statistics rather than counting stats C) Weight all features equally D) Only use physical measurements

Question 27

A limitation of comparable-based projections is:

A) Each player is unique B) Historical contexts differ from current C) Sample of comparables may be small D) All of the above

Question 28

Comparable players are MOST useful for projecting:

A) Next season's exact stats B) Career trajectory and ceiling C) Game-by-game performance D) Optimal contract value

Section 5: System Integration (Questions 29-35)

Question 29

A complete projection system should include:

A) Point estimates only B) Point estimates with confidence intervals C) Point estimates, intervals, and comparable context D) Only comparable players

Question 30

Confidence intervals for projections should:

A) Always be symmetric around the mean B) Be wider for smaller sample sizes C) Ignore aging uncertainty D) Be constant across all players

Question 31

When combining multiple projection sources (Marcel + comparables + aging), you should:

A) Always use equal weights B) Use the most accurate source only C) Weight by historical accuracy of each source D) Random selection

Question 32

Projection accuracy should be evaluated using:

A) Correlation between projected and actual B) Mean absolute error C) Calibration of confidence intervals D) All of the above

Question 33

A well-calibrated 90% confidence interval means:

A) 90% of projections are within 10% of actual B) Actual results fall within the interval 90% of the time C) The model is 90% accurate D) Top 90% of players are projected correctly

Question 34

Fantasy football projections differ from standard projections by:

A) Combining multiple stat categories into points B) Emphasizing volume over efficiency C) Including roster construction considerations D) All of the above

Question 35

When evaluating a projection system, a persistent positive bias indicates:

A) The system consistently over-projects B) The system consistently under-projects C) The system is well-calibrated D) More regression is needed

Answer Key

Section 1: Regression and Projection Basics

  1. B - Sample sizes are finite; extreme results partly reflect luck
  2. A - 80 / (80 + 200) = 0.286 ≈ 0.29
  3. B - 0.29 × 5.2 + 0.71 × 4.3 = 4.56
  4. D - All statements are true
  5. C - Touchdown rate is highly variable
  6. C - 450 / (450 + 300) = 0.60
  7. B - Players' true talent changes over time
  8. D - Both league average and comparables are valid
  9. D - Both B and C are correct
  10. A - 45 / (45 + 100) = 0.31

Section 2: Aging Curves

  1. B - Running backs peak earliest (~25)
  2. A - 1200 × (1 - 0.05 × 3) = 1200 × 0.85 = 1020
  3. D - All factors contribute
  4. C - Slight positive adjustment expected
  5. D - Physical punishment and athleticism dependence
  6. C - Injury changes projections independent of age
  7. B - At peak, no adjustment needed

Section 3: Position-Specific Projections

  1. D - All factors affect QB efficiency
  2. D - All factors contribute to Y/C instability
  3. B - Target competition most affects target volume
  4. D - All statements are correct
  5. B - Efficiency matters more than volume
  6. D - Both big play variance and target quality matter
  7. D - Both role uncertainty and blocking vs. routes

Section 4: Comparable Players

  1. B - Provide context for statistical projections
  2. B - Rate stats control for opportunity differences
  3. D - All are valid limitations
  4. B - Career trajectory and ceiling

Section 5: System Integration

  1. C - Complete system includes all three
  2. B - Wider for smaller samples (more uncertainty)
  3. C - Weight by historical accuracy
  4. D - All metrics should be used
  5. B - Actual falls within interval 90% of the time
  6. D - All distinguish fantasy projections
  7. A - Positive bias = over-projection

Scoring Guide

  • 30-35 correct: Excellent! Ready for advanced projection systems
  • 24-29 correct: Good understanding, review weak areas
  • 18-23 correct: Solid foundation, more practice needed
  • Below 18: Review chapter material before proceeding