Case Study 1: Evaluating a Kicker for the NFL Draft

Introduction

The 2024 NFL Draft class features three highly-regarded kickers, an unusual depth at a position that rarely draws significant draft capital. Your analytics team has been hired by an NFL franchise to provide a data-driven evaluation of these prospects to inform their late-round draft strategy.

This case study applies field goal probability modeling, expected points analysis, and comprehensive kicker evaluation to identify the best long-term investment at the position.

Background Context

The Kicker Position in the NFL

Kickers occupy a unique space in professional football: - They directly impact 10-15% of team scoring - Elite kickers can be worth 1-2 wins per season over replacement level - Career longevity often exceeds 15 years for successful kickers - Draft capital investment is typically minimal (6th-7th round or undrafted)

However, the variance in kicker performance and the difficulty in projecting college success to the NFL makes evaluation challenging.

Evaluation Framework

We'll evaluate each prospect across five dimensions:

1. Accuracy by Range - Raw make percentages segmented by distance
2. Pressure Performance - Accuracy in high-leverage situations
3. Environmental Adaptability - Performance in adverse weather/conditions
4. Consistency Metrics - Variance in performance week-to-week
5. Projection Model - Expected NFL performance based on college data

The Prospects

Prospect A: Marcus Sterling (SEC University)

Physical Profile: - Height: 5'11", Weight: 195 lbs - Leg strength: Elite - Kickoff ability: Excellent (72% touchback rate)

College Statistics (3 seasons as starter):

Situational Performance: - Game-winning/tying kicks (final 2 min): 8/10 (80.0%) - 4th quarter, within one score: 22/26 (84.6%) - Conference championship games: 5/6 (83.3%) - Adverse weather (rain/wind >15mph): 12/16 (75.0%)

Additional Notes: - Long: 54 yards (made) - Three blocked kicks in career - Consistent operation time (1.28 seconds average)

Prospect B: Jake Anderson (Big Ten Tech)

Physical Profile: - Height: 6'1", Weight: 210 lbs - Leg strength: Above average - Kickoff ability: Good (65% touchback rate)

College Statistics (4 seasons, 3 as starter):

Situational Performance: - Game-winning/tying kicks (final 2 min): 6/6 (100.0%) - 4th quarter, within one score: 28/30 (93.3%) - Conference championship games: 4/4 (100.0%) - Adverse weather (rain/wind >15mph): 18/20 (90.0%)

Additional Notes: - Long: 52 yards (made) - Zero blocked kicks in career - Consistent operation time (1.25 seconds average) - Played in outdoor, cold-weather stadium

Prospect C: Tyler Ramirez (Pac-12 State)

Physical Profile: - Height: 6'0", Weight: 185 lbs - Leg strength: Above average - Kickoff ability: Average (58% touchback rate)

College Statistics (2 seasons as starter):

Situational Performance: - Game-winning/tying kicks (final 2 min): 5/7 (71.4%) - 4th quarter, within one score: 18/22 (81.8%) - Conference championship games: 3/3 (100.0%) - Adverse weather (rain/wind >15mph): 8/10 (80.0%)

Additional Notes: - Long: 57 yards (made, school record) - One blocked kick in career - Operation time: 1.32 seconds (slightly slow) - Played in ideal weather conditions (West Coast)

Analysis Process

Step 1: Accuracy Adjustment for Opportunity Quality

Raw accuracy percentages can be misleading because they don't account for the difficulty of attempts. We need to calculate "Field Goals Over Expected" (FGOE).

League Average Make Rates by Distance:

Expected Makes Calculation:

For each prospect, calculate expected makes based on their attempt distribution:

Marcus Sterling:

Expected = (42 × 0.96) + (58 × 0.85) + (45 × 0.72) + (18 × 0.52)
Expected = 40.3 + 49.3 + 32.4 + 9.4 = 131.4
Actual = 143
FGOE = +11.6 (over 163 attempts)
FGOE per attempt = +0.071

Jake Anderson:

Expected = (55 × 0.96) + (72 × 0.85) + (51 × 0.72) + (12 × 0.52)
Expected = 52.8 + 61.2 + 36.7 + 6.2 = 156.9
Actual = 176
FGOE = +19.1 (over 190 attempts)
FGOE per attempt = +0.101

Tyler Ramirez:

Expected = (28 × 0.96) + (35 × 0.85) + (38 × 0.72) + (22 × 0.52)
Expected = 26.9 + 29.8 + 27.4 + 11.4 = 95.5
Actual = 112
FGOE = +16.5 (over 123 attempts)
FGOE per attempt = +0.134

FGOE Ranking: 1. Tyler Ramirez: +0.134 per attempt 2. Jake Anderson: +0.101 per attempt 3. Marcus Sterling: +0.071 per attempt

Step 2: Pressure Performance Analysis

Evaluate how each kicker performs in high-pressure situations compared to their baseline.

Pressure Performance Index:

Calculate the difference between clutch accuracy and overall accuracy:

Analysis: - Anderson shows remarkable improvement under pressure, suggesting excellent mental composure - Sterling has slight regression but maintains competence - Ramirez shows significant decline, a concerning pattern for NFL pressure

Step 3: Environmental Adaptability

Crucial for teams in outdoor, cold-weather markets.

Weather Performance Index:

Key Observations: - Anderson is virtually unaffected by weather conditions - Sterling and Ramirez show significant weather-related regression - Anderson's Big Ten experience provides relevant cold-weather data

Step 4: Consistency Analysis

Calculate the standard deviation of weekly performance.

Weekly Performance Data (sample of 10 games each):

Consistency Metrics:

Anderson demonstrates exceptional consistency with low variance and high perfect-game rate.

Step 5: Long-Range Projection

NFL teams value long-range accuracy for late-game scenarios.

50+ Yard Analysis:

Long-Range Value: - Ramirez has the best long-range percentage and proven range to 57 yards - Sterling has solid volume from 50+ - Anderson has limited long-range attempts but reliable through 50

Step 6: Expected Points Model

Calculate the expected points added per kick for each prospect.

Model Components: 1. Make probability by distance (from FGOE analysis) 2. Miss consequences (field position) 3. Volume projection (NFL average ~32 FG attempts per season)

EPA Calculation:

For a league-average kicker attempting 32 FGs with typical distribution: - Expected FGs made: 26.5 - Expected points: 79.5

Prospect Projections (32 attempts, NFL distribution):

Step 7: Composite Evaluation

Weighted Scoring System:

Findings and Recommendations

Prospect Rankings

1. Jake Anderson (Score: 89.5)

Strengths: - Elite consistency (lowest variance of any prospect) - Exceptional pressure performance (+2.4 index) - Weather-proof (minimal accuracy drop in adverse conditions) - Zero blocked kicks (excellent operation time) - High-volume college experience (190 attempts)

Weaknesses: - Limited long-range sample (only 12 attempts from 50+) - Slightly lower ceiling on very long kicks - Lower kickoff touchback rate than Sterling

Projection: Pro Bowl-caliber kicker. Projects as a top-10 NFL kicker within 3 years. Extremely low bust probability due to consistency and pressure performance.

Draft Recommendation: Worth a 5th-6th round pick. Would be comfortable selecting in the 4th round if kicker is a priority.

2. Tyler Ramirez (Score: 74.5)

Strengths: - Highest FGOE per attempt (+0.134) - Best long-range accuracy and proven 57-yard range - Raw accuracy metrics are strong

Weaknesses: - Severe pressure regression (-12.3 index) - major red flag - Limited sample size (only 123 career attempts) - Weather performance concerns - Slightly slow operation time (block risk) - Played in ideal weather; adjustment to NFL conditions unknown

Projection: High ceiling but significant bust risk. Could be a weapon from 50+ yards but pressure concerns suggest potential for high-profile misses. Think of him as a high-variance investment.

Draft Recommendation: Late-round flier (7th) or priority UDFA. Would not invest significant capital until pressure concerns are addressed.

3. Marcus Sterling (Score: 70.3)

Strengths: - Elite leg strength and kickoff ability - Good volume of 50+ yard attempts - Solid clutch performance (80% on game-winners)

Weaknesses: - Lowest FGOE of the three prospects - Weather-sensitive (14.8% accuracy drop) - Three blocked kicks suggests protection or operation issues - Highest weekly variance

Projection: Replacement-level NFL kicker with kickoff value. May stick on a roster due to kickoff ability, but unlikely to be a difference-maker on field goals.

Draft Recommendation: 7th round or UDFA. Kickoff ability provides roster value even if FG accuracy doesn't develop.

Risk Assessment

Team-Specific Recommendations

For Cold-Weather/Outdoor Teams (GB, CHI, NE, etc.): - Anderson is the clear choice - his weather adaptability is elite - Avoid Ramirez - limited cold-weather data is a significant risk

For Dome/Warm Weather Teams (NO, LV, ARI, etc.): - Ramirez becomes more attractive - his weaknesses are mitigated - Anderson still valuable for consistency - Sterling's weather issues less relevant

For Teams Needing Kickoff Help: - Sterling provides dual value - Consider carrying Sterling as kickoff specialist alongside another FG kicker

Expected Career Value Analysis

10-Year Value Projection (Present Value, $M):

Final Recommendation

Primary Target: Jake Anderson

Jake Anderson represents the safest investment with the highest floor and a legitimate All-Pro ceiling. His consistency, pressure performance, and weather adaptability project to immediate NFL success. While his long-range sample is limited, his accuracy through 50 yards is elite, and most NFL field goals come from within that range.

Risk-Adjusted Recommendation:

If selecting in rounds 5-6, prioritize Anderson. His combination of low bust risk and high expected value makes him worth a premium at the kicker position.

If Anderson is unavailable, evaluate team context: - Dome team: Consider Ramirez as a high-upside gamble - Outdoor team: Consider Sterling for kickoff value, plan to address FG kicking separately

Avoid: Overdrafting any kicker before round 5, regardless of talent level. The position doesn't warrant significant draft capital when UDFA kickers can provide comparable value.

Code Implementation

The complete code for this analysis is available in code/case-study-code.py, including: - KickerProspectEvaluator class - FGOE calculation methods - Pressure index analysis - Composite scoring system - Projection models

Discussion Questions

1. How would your evaluation change if Anderson had attempted more 50+ yard kicks? What sample size would you need to draw conclusions?

2. Ramirez's pressure performance is concerning. What additional data would help determine if this is a persistent trait or small sample noise?

3. How should teams weight kickoff ability versus field goal accuracy? Is there a market inefficiency in valuing dual-threat kickers?

4. The weather analysis compares good vs. bad conditions. How would you build a more granular weather adjustment model?

5. What role should draft capital play in kicker evaluation? Is a 4th-round kicker ever worth it compared to cycling through UDFAs?