Appendix F: Templates and Worksheets

How to Use This Appendix: Each template is designed to be printed or copied for use in class exercises, campaign internships, or professional analytical work. Fill in each field as completely as possible. Partially completed templates are useful for identifying what information is missing from a published poll or political report. Many of these templates double as grading rubrics for the exercises in this textbook.


Template 1: Poll Evaluation Checklist

Based on AAPOR Transparency Initiative Standards and Chapter 10

Use this checklist to evaluate any published poll. Check each box only when you can verify the criterion from available documentation. If information is not publicly disclosed, note that in the "Notes" column — non-disclosure is itself a methodological red flag.

Poll Being Evaluated: ___________

Evaluator Name/Date: ___________

Source of Poll: ___________


Section A: Basic Disclosure (Required for any credible poll)

# Criterion Met? Notes
1 Sponsoring organization(s) are fully identified ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Not disclosed
2 The polling firm/methodology provider is identified ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Not disclosed
3 Exact question wording is reported verbatim ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Not disclosed
4 Question order in the instrument is reported ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Not disclosed
5 Field dates (when interviewing was conducted) are reported ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Not disclosed
6 Sample size (N) is reported ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Not disclosed
7 Margin of error is reported ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Not disclosed
8 The population being surveyed is defined (registered voters, likely voters, adults, etc.) ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Not disclosed

Section B: Methodology Quality

# Criterion Met? Notes
9 Survey mode is identified (telephone RDD, online panel, text-to-web, etc.) ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Not disclosed
10 If telephone poll: both landline and cell phone included? Cell phone % reported? ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ N/A
11 If online poll: panel vendor identified and panel methodology described? ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ N/A
12 Response rate or completion rate is reported ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Not disclosed
13 Weighting variables and targets are disclosed ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Not disclosed
14 Likely voter screen methodology is disclosed (if LV results reported) ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ N/A

Section C: Question Quality

# Criterion Met? Notes
15 Questions are neutral (no loaded language, false premises, or leading wording) ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Partially
16 Ballot test question uses correct candidate names/offices ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ N/A
17 Response options are balanced and exhaustive ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Partially
18 "Don't know / No opinion" option is offered appropriately ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Partially

Section D: Reporting Quality

# Criterion Met? Notes
19 Reported results are consistent with disclosed sample sizes and MoE ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Cannot verify
20 Topline results available for independent review (topline document linked or published) ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Not disclosed

Section E: Red Flags (Check any that apply)

  • ☐ Sponsor is a political campaign, party, or advocacy organization with an obvious stake in the result
  • ☐ Results were released to media before the full topline was published
  • ☐ Only favorable subgroup results were highlighted
  • ☐ The margin of error is not applied to the differences being discussed
  • ☐ Results are described as statistically significant when differences are within the MoE
  • ☐ The poll was conducted more than 3 weeks before the reported date
  • ☐ Sample size is below 400 (reducing reliability substantially)
  • ☐ The firm has a documented history of house effects favoring a particular party

Summary Evaluation

Total criteria met (Sections A–D): _____ / 20

Red flags identified: _____

Overall credibility rating: - ☐ High (17–20 criteria met, 0–1 red flags): Poll meets professional standards; results can be used with appropriate uncertainty - ☐ Moderate (12–16 criteria met, 2–3 red flags): Important information missing; treat results with caution; do not treat as definitive - ☐ Low (fewer than 12 criteria met, or 4+ red flags): Significant methodological concerns; results should not be reported without substantial caveats - ☐ Push poll / Advocacy poll: Evidence of intentional bias in question design; results should not be reported as reflecting public opinion


Template 2: Survey Question Design Worksheet

Based on Chapter 7 Principles of Question Construction

Use this worksheet when designing or evaluating a survey question. Complete one worksheet per question.


Survey Topic: ___________

Target Population: ___________

Survey Mode (telephone / online / in-person): ___________


Step 1: Define the Concept You Are Measuring

What construct are you trying to measure? (Be as precise as possible)



Is this construct: - ☐ Attitudinal (opinions, evaluations, preferences) - ☐ Behavioral (past actions, reported behavior) - ☐ Demographic (factual characteristics) - ☐ Knowledge (factual recall) - ☐ Intentional (stated future behavior)

Why does this distinction matter for your question design?




Step 2: Draft Your Initial Question

Draft question wording:



Proposed response options:





  1. ☐ Don't know / No opinion (include? ☐ Yes ☐ No — justify your decision)

Step 3: Check for Common Design Errors

Review your draft question against each pitfall. Check if the problem applies and revise accordingly.

Pitfall Does it Apply? How to Fix
Double-barreled question (asks about two things at once, e.g., "Do you support lower taxes and smaller government?") ☐ Yes ☐ No Split into two separate questions
Leading language (pushes respondents toward a particular answer, e.g., "Don't you agree that...") ☐ Yes ☐ No Rewrite using neutral phrasing
Loaded terms (emotionally charged words like "radical," "extremist," "failed") ☐ Yes ☐ No Replace with factual descriptors
False premise (assumes something that may not be true, e.g., "Since crime is rising, do you support...") ☐ Yes ☐ No Remove the factual claim or verify it
Acquiescence bias (question worded so "agree" / "yes" is the socially desirable answer) ☐ Yes ☐ No Use a forced choice or balance agree/disagree
Abstract framing (uses jargon respondents may not understand) ☐ Yes ☐ No Pilot test with lay respondents
Social desirability problem (respondents may be embarrassed to give their true answer) ☐ Yes ☐ No Consider list experiment or endorsement experiment
Telescoping error (time reference is vague, e.g., "recently" or "in the past") ☐ Yes ☐ No Specify exact time period
Unbalanced response options (more options on one side of neutral than the other) ☐ Yes ☐ No Balance the scale symmetrically
Missing "don't know" option (forces an opinion from those who have none) ☐ Yes ☐ No Add DK/NA option and decide how to handle
Question order effects (previous questions prime respondents or alter what this question means) ☐ Yes ☐ No Test different orderings; consider split sample
Mode incompatibility (question uses visual elements that don't work in telephone mode) ☐ Yes ☐ No Adapt for delivery mode

Step 4: Revised Question

Revised question wording:



Revised response options:







Step 5: Validity and Reliability Check

Face validity: Does this question appear to measure what you intend? Get an outside opinion.

External reviewer comments: ___________

Cognitive interview plan: Will you pilot test the question using think-aloud protocols with 5–8 respondents from the target population?

☐ Yes — describe plan: _______ ☐ No — justify: _________

Split-sample test: Will you test alternative wordings in a split-sample experiment?

☐ Yes — alternative wording B: ___________ ☐ No


Step 6: Final Documentation

Final question text (verbatim, as it will appear in the instrument):




Response options (verbatim):

☐ 1: __ ☐ 2: __ ☐ 3: __ ☐ 4: __ ☐ DK/NA

Question type: ☐ Forced choice ☐ Multiple select ☐ Scale ☐ Open-ended

Interviewer instructions (if applicable): ___________

Analysis plan: ___________


Template 3: Demographic Analysis Template

Based on Chapter 13 Framework for Electorate Analysis

Use this template to conduct a systematic analysis of an electorate's demographic composition. Complete one template per geographic unit (state, district, county, etc.).


Geographic Unit Being Analyzed: ___________

Election / Office: ___________

Data Sources Used: ___________

Date of Analysis: ___________


Section A: Basic Demographics

Demographic Dimension % of Registered Voters % of Likely Voters (your estimate) % of 2020 Actual Electorate Historical Trend (growing/stable/declining)
Race/Ethnicity
White non-Hispanic
Black non-Hispanic
Hispanic/Latino
Asian American/AAPI
Other/Multiracial
Education
No college degree
Some college
4-year degree
Graduate degree
Age
18–29
30–44
45–64
65+
Gender
Men
Women
Geography
Urban
Suburban
Rural
Religion
White evangelical Protestant
Other Protestant
Catholic
Jewish
Muslim
Unaffiliated
Other

Section B: Vote History Profile

Metric Value Source
2020 Presidential result (D vs. R margin)
2016 Presidential result (D vs. R margin)
2022 Midterm result (D vs. R margin, top of ticket)
Average D vs. R margin last 3 elections
Trend direction (shifting R / shifting D / stable)
Presidential year vs. midterm turnout gap
Estimated # of low-propensity registered voters
Estimated # of unregistered but eligible voters

Section C: Partisan Composition Analysis

Party registration (if applicable in this state):

Party # Registered % of Registered Notes
Democratic
Republican
Independent/Unaffiliated
Third parties
Total registered

Estimated partisan lean of unregistered eligible population:


Key demographic cross-tabulations to analyze further (list 3–5):







Section D: Subgroup Opportunities and Risks

Based on the demographic analysis, identify specific subgroups that represent strategic opportunities or risks.

Subgroup Size Partisan Lean Turnout Pattern Strategic Implication

Section E: Summary Assessment

In 2–3 sentences, describe the fundamental structure of this electorate:




Primary demographic coalition needed to win (based on this analysis):



Greatest demographic uncertainty or data gap:




Template 4: Voter Targeting Universe Worksheet

Based on Chapter 29 Targeting Logic and GOTV Strategy

Use this worksheet to define and size the voter universes for a specific campaign. Complete one worksheet per campaign and adjust as new data becomes available.


Campaign: ___________

Office / Race: ___________

Election Date: ___________

Analyst: ___________

Date: ___________


Step 1: Define the Win Number

Metric Value How Calculated
Total registered voters in universe
Estimated total turnout (based on analogous election)
Estimated votes needed to win (50% + 1 of estimated turnout)
Current estimated vote base (strong Dem/Rep)
Gap between base and win number

Step 2: GOTV Universe (Base Mobilization)

Definition: Voters who are already supportive of your candidate but who may not vote without contact.

Criterion Threshold Rationale
Support score minimum ≥ ___ / 100
Turnout score maximum ≤ ___ / 100
Party registration (if applicable)
Additional filters (geography, age, etc.)

GOTV Universe Size: ___

GOTV Resource Requirement: - Estimated doors/phone dials needed per conversion: ___ - Total contacts needed: ___ - Volunteer hours required: ___ - Priority subgroups within GOTV universe: ___________


Step 3: Persuasion Universe

Definition: Voters who are genuinely undecided or weakly partisan and who might be persuaded to support your candidate.

Criterion Threshold Rationale
Support score range ___ – ___ / 100
Turnout score minimum ≥ ___ / 100
Party registration (if applicable)
Additional filters

Persuasion Universe Size: ___

Persuasion Strategy: - Primary contact mode: ☐ Direct mail ☐ Digital ads ☐ Phone ☐ Door ☐ Other: ___ - Number of touches planned: ___ - Priority message themes (based on polling data): ___________

Persuasion Universe Breakdown by Subgroup:

Subgroup Size Priority (1–5) Primary Message

Step 4: Fundraising Universe

Definition: Voters and supporters with the capacity and inclination to donate to the campaign.

Criterion Threshold Rationale
Support score minimum ≥ ___ / 100
Donor history (past campaigns)
Income/wealth proxies (if using commercial data)
Geographic accessibility

Fundraising Universe Size: ___

Fundraising Target: $___

Average expected donation: $___

Events planned: ___________


Step 5: Opposition Research / Negative Universe

Definition: Voters supporting the opposing candidate who might be persuadable away from them under certain conditions (typically used for negative advertising targeting, not direct voter contact).

Criterion Threshold
Opposing support score ≥ ___ / 100
Persuadability indicators
Other filters

Negative Universe Size: ___

Note: This universe is typically targeted via broadcast or digital advertising rather than direct voter contact, as contacting a confirmed opponent can backfire.


Step 6: Universe Summary and Resource Allocation

Universe Size Budget Allocation (%) Primary Contact Mode Deadline
GOTV
Persuasion
Fundraising
Total 100%

Key Assumptions in This Targeting Plan:




Monitoring and Adjustment Plan: How will you know if targeting is working, and when will you recalibrate?




Template 5: Campaign Analytics Brief Template

Based on Chapter 28 — Presenting Findings to Campaign Leadership

The analytics brief is the primary communication tool between the analytics team and campaign leadership. It must be concise, actionable, and honest about uncertainty. Fill in all sections completely. Maximum recommended length: one page (printed).


CAMPAIGN ANALYTICS BRIEF

Campaign: __ Race: __ Date: ___

Prepared by: ___ Classification: ☐ Internal Only ☐ Can share with allies


HEADLINE FINDING (1–2 sentences — the single most important thing leadership needs to know)




CURRENT STANDING

Metric Our Candidate Opponent Trend
Head-to-head ballot test (LV) ↑ / ↓ / →
Favorable / Unfavorable / /
Among undecided LVs
Win probability estimate

Data sources underlying these estimates: ___________

Confidence in these estimates: ☐ High (large recent N, consistent sources) ☐ Moderate ☐ Low (limited data)


KEY SUBGROUP FINDINGS

Subgroup Our Margin Last Week Change Action Needed?
☐ Yes ☐ No
☐ Yes ☐ No
☐ Yes ☐ No
☐ Yes ☐ No

MESSAGE PERFORMANCE

Message / Theme Tested? Net Effectiveness Recommended Action
☐ Yes ☐ No
☐ Yes ☐ No
☐ Yes ☐ No

TARGETING STATUS

Universe Size Contacts Made % Complete On Track?
GOTV ☐ Yes ☐ No
Persuasion ☐ Yes ☐ No
Fundraising ☐ Yes ☐ No

TOP 3 RECOMMENDED ACTIONS

  1. [Action]: ___________ By when: ___ Who owns it: ___
  2. [Action]: ___________ By when: ___ Who owns it: ___
  3. [Action]: ___________ By when: ___ Who owns it: ___

RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES

Risk Probability Impact Mitigation
☐ H/M/L ☐ H/M/L
☐ H/M/L ☐ H/M/L
☐ H/M/L ☐ H/M/L

NEXT ANALYTICS DELIVERABLE: _______ Due: _______


Template 6: Misinformation Tracking Template

Based on Chapter 26 and Capstone 2 — Monitoring and Responding to False Claims

Use this template to log, categorize, and track false or misleading claims circulating about your candidate, campaign, issue, or opponent. Maintaining a systematic log enables pattern analysis and rapid response.


Campaign / Organization: ___________

Tracking Period: __ to __

Primary Analyst: ___________


Claim Log

Complete one row per distinct false or misleading claim identified.

Claim ID Date First Observed Claim Summary (25 words max) Claim Type Origin Source Spread Platform(s) Estimated Reach Verified False? Response Status Response Date
001 ☐ Yes ☐ Misleading ☐ Unverified ☐ None ☐ Drafted ☐ Deployed
002 ☐ Yes ☐ Misleading ☐ Unverified ☐ None ☐ Drafted ☐ Deployed
003 ☐ Yes ☐ Misleading ☐ Unverified ☐ None ☐ Drafted ☐ Deployed
004 ☐ Yes ☐ Misleading ☐ Unverified ☐ None ☐ Drafted ☐ Deployed
005 ☐ Yes ☐ Misleading ☐ Unverified ☐ None ☐ Drafted ☐ Deployed

Claim Type Definitions

Code Type Description
FAB Fabricated Entirely false; no factual basis
CTX Out of context True statement presented misleadingly
SAT Satire misrepresented Satirical content shared as real
MAI Manipulated image/video Authentic media altered
SYN Synthetic media AI-generated content
SPM Spin/misleading framing True facts, misleading implication
OPP Opposition research misrepresented Legitimate oppo distorted

Claim Detail Sheet

Complete one Detail Sheet per Claim ID for claims rated high priority (reach > 10,000 OR picked up by mainstream media).

Claim ID: _ Date: Analyst: __

Full claim text (verbatim): ___________

Original source URL: ___________

Screenshot archived at: ___________

Fact-check sources: 1. _______ 2. _________

Why the claim is false or misleading (2–4 sentences):



Estimated spread: - Facebook shares/engagements: ___ - Twitter/X impressions: ___ - TikTok views: ___ - Mainstream media pickups: ☐ None ☐ Local ☐ National — outlets: ___

Target audience (who is sharing this and why):


Response decision: ☐ Ignore (low reach, responds draws attention) ☐ Rapid response ☐ Earned media strategy ☐ Platform report ☐ Legal review

Response asset created (URL or file path): ___________

Post-response tracking: Did the response reduce spread? ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Unable to measure


Weekly Summary Statistics

Metric This Week Cumulative
New claims logged
Claims verified false
Claims rated misleading
Claims responded to
Highest-reach claim this week (ID + reach)
Claims from coordinated networks

Template 7: Election Forecast Worksheet

Based on Chapters 17–21 — Constructing a Simple Electoral Forecast

This worksheet guides analysts through building a simple election forecast using fundamentals, polling, and structural adjustment. It is appropriate for U.S. House, Senate, gubernatorial, or presidential races. More complex races may require the computational methods described in Chapters 17–21.


Race: _______ Election Date: _______

Analyst: _______ Date: _______


Step 1: Establish the Structural Baseline

The structural baseline estimates vote share based on factors determined before the campaign begins.

Structural Factor Value Democratic Lean (+) or Republican Lean (–) Source
Prior election result (same race, 2 cycles ago)
Presidential partisanship of district/state (2020)
Midterm/open seat penalty (if applicable)
Presidential approval effect (if applicable)
Generic ballot (if applicable)
Structural baseline (weighted average)

Notes on structural baseline: ___________


Step 2: Compile Available Polling

List all polls conducted in this race in the past 60 days.

Poll # Pollster Date N (LV) D% R% D–R Margin Weight (inverse of MoE²)
1
2
3
4
5
Simple polling average
Weighted polling average

House effect adjustments applied (if any): ___________


Step 3: Adjust for Poll Quality and House Effects

Pollster Known House Effect (D+ or R+) Adjusted Margin After Correction

Adjusted polling average after house effect corrections: D+/R+ ___


Step 4: Combine Fundamentals and Polls

Most forecasters weight polls more heavily as Election Day approaches and fundamentals more heavily early in the cycle.

Component D–R Margin Estimate Weight (must sum to 1.00) Weighted Contribution
Structural baseline
Adjusted polling average
Combined point estimate 1.00

Days until election: ___ Recommended polling weight for this stage: ___


Step 5: Estimate Uncertainty

Source of Uncertainty Contribution to Standard Deviation
Polling error (average state-level error from recent cycles: ~3 pts) ±
Structural model error ±
Correlated error across races (national environment shift) ±
Total estimated standard deviation ±

Point estimate: D+/R+ ___ 90% confidence interval: D+/R+ ___ to D+/R+ ___ Win probability (assuming normal distribution): % D / % R

To calculate: Win probability ≈ NORM.DIST(point_estimate / std_dev, 0, 1, TRUE) for Democratic win probability if D-favored race, or appropriate tail depending on sign.


Step 6: Scenario Analysis

Scenario Assumption Resulting Outcome
Base case Current point estimate
D favorable scenario Polling systematically underestimates D by 2 pts
R favorable scenario Polling systematically underestimates R by 2 pts
High turnout scenario Electorate resembles high-enthusiasm election
Low turnout scenario Electorate skews older and more partisan

Step 7: Final Forecast Statement

Write a one-paragraph forecast that includes: - Current best estimate (with confidence interval) - Win probability estimate - Key uncertainties and assumptions - What would change the forecast






Template 8: Ethics Review Checklist

Based on Chapter 38 — Ethical Evaluation of Analytics Projects

Use this checklist before launching any analytics project involving voter data, survey research, or political messaging. This checklist applies to campaigns, nonprofits, research organizations, and consulting firms.

Project Name: ___________

Project Description: ___________

Analyst/Reviewer: _______ Date: _______


Section A: Data Ethics

# Criterion Status Notes
1 Data sources are legal and properly licensed for this use ☐ Met ☐ Concern ☐ N/A
2 Voter file data is used only for permitted political purposes, not commercial resale ☐ Met ☐ Concern ☐ N/A
3 Personally identifiable information (PII) is protected with appropriate security measures ☐ Met ☐ Concern ☐ N/A
4 Data is not retained beyond its authorized use period ☐ Met ☐ Concern ☐ N/A
5 Third-party data vendors are vetted for ethical data practices ☐ Met ☐ Concern ☐ N/A

Section B: Research Ethics

# Criterion Status Notes
6 If human subjects research: IRB approval obtained or exemption documented ☐ Met ☐ Concern ☐ N/A
7 Survey respondents gave informed consent appropriate to the research context ☐ Met ☐ Concern ☐ N/A
8 Deceptive practices in research design are justified and IRB-approved ☐ Met ☐ Concern ☐ N/A
9 Respondent data is anonymized before analysis where feasible ☐ Met ☐ Concern ☐ N/A

Section C: Messaging and Targeting Ethics

# Criterion Status Notes
10 Messaging is truthful; no demonstrably false claims are being targeted to voters ☐ Met ☐ Concern ☐ Violation
11 Targeting does not discriminate on protected characteristics in ways that constitute voter suppression ☐ Met ☐ Concern ☐ N/A
12 Psychological vulnerability targeting (grief, fear, economic anxiety) uses evidence-based messages, not manipulation ☐ Met ☐ Concern ☐ Concern

Section D: Transparency and Accountability

# Criterion Status Notes
13 Sponsored content is clearly labeled with required disclosures (paid for by...) ☐ Met ☐ Concern ☐ N/A
14 Analytical findings are reported accurately; cherry-picking of favorable results is avoided ☐ Met ☐ Concern ☐ Concern
15 A designated decision-maker is accountable for the ethical compliance of this project ☐ Met ☐ Concern ☐ No

Section E: Ethics Summary

Number of criteria marked "Concern": _ Number marked "Violation": ___

Overall ethics assessment: - ☐ Approved: All criteria met; no concerns identified. Project may proceed. - ☐ Conditional approval: Concerns identified; proceed with listed mitigations. - ☐ Hold: Significant concerns require resolution before proceeding. See notes. - ☐ Stop: Violation identified. Project must not proceed until legal/ethics review complete.

Required mitigations before proceeding:




Escalation required: ☐ Yes (to whom: ___) ☐ No

Reviewer signature: _______ Date: _______


All templates in this appendix may be reproduced for classroom and professional use with attribution to this textbook.