Chapter 14 Quiz
Instructions: Select the best answer for each multiple-choice question. For short-answer questions, write 2–4 sentences.
Multiple Choice
1. According to Anthony Downs's expected utility model of voting, the probability term (P) refers to:
a) The probability that the voter's preferred candidate wins the election b) The probability that the voter's single ballot is decisive in determining the outcome c) The probability that the voter will feel satisfied after casting a ballot d) The probability that the voter is registered correctly
Answer: b
2. The "paradox of participation" refers to the puzzle that:
a) Turnout in the United States is lower than in most other democracies despite higher wealth b) Rational actors should not vote given the near-zero probability of being decisive, yet millions do c) Campaigns spend billions on mobilization but turnout rarely exceeds 70 percent d) Young voters have lower turnout despite having the most at stake in policy outcomes
Answer: b
3. The Gerber-Green-Larimer (2008) social pressure experiment found that the treatment showing neighbors' voting records produced a turnout increase of approximately:
a) 2 percentage points b) 4 percentage points c) 8 percentage points d) 15 percentage points
Answer: c
4. Which of the following GOTV interventions has the strongest evidence base for increasing voter turnout?
a) Robocall reminders b) Generic direct mail c) Facebook advertising d) Door-to-door canvassing by trained volunteers
Answer: d
5. Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) primarily addresses which barrier to participation?
a) The difficulty of physically getting to a polling place b) The individual burden of initiating and completing voter registration c) The lack of competitive elections in safe districts d) The requirement to show photo identification at the polls
Answer: b
6. The "surge and decline" pattern in U.S. elections refers to:
a) The tendency for poll averages to surge after debates and decline after gaffes b) Higher turnout in presidential years compared to midterm elections, with compositional differences c) The increase in early voting followed by decline in Election Day voting d) Campaign spending surging in final weeks and declining after negative ads saturate markets
Answer: b
7. In turnout modeling, "calibration" refers to:
a) The model's ability to correctly rank voters from most to least likely to vote b) The process of adjusting a model's scores to account for different election types c) Whether the model's predicted probabilities reflect actual observed turnout rates d) The technical process of weighting survey data to match the expected electorate
Answer: c
8. Research on voting habit formation suggests that:
a) Voters who skip one election are permanently less likely to vote in future elections b) Voting in one election significantly increases the probability of voting in subsequent elections c) Habits are only formed through three or more consecutive elections of participation d) Habit formation is equally strong regardless of the voter's age at first vote
Answer: b
9. Among the following predictors, which is typically the most powerful predictor of whether a registered voter will cast a ballot in an upcoming election?
a) The voter's income level b) The voter's education level c) The voter's past voting history d) The voter's party registration
Answer: c
10. The "compositional effect" of differential turnout means that:
a) The racial composition of the electorate is fixed by the census b) The actual voting electorate has a different demographic profile than the eligible voting population c) Campaigns must compose their canvassing lists from multiple vendor databases d) Different voter file vendors produce incompatible data formats
Answer: b
Short Answer
11. Explain in your own words why countries with automatic voter registration tend to have higher turnout than countries with opt-in registration, even if the automatic registrants have lower individual voting rates than voluntary registrants.
Sample answer: Automatic registration dramatically increases the size of the registered electorate, bringing in people who would not have overcome the transaction cost of registration on their own. Even if these newly registered voters have lower propensity than self-registrants — they registered "passively" rather than through active civic engagement — the sheer increase in the registered base is large enough that total votes cast increase. The denominator of eligible voters stays the same but the numerator of votes cast rises.
12. Why might a campaign allocate GOTV resources to high-propensity supporters who will almost certainly vote even without outreach, rather than focusing exclusively on low-propensity supporters who need encouragement?
Sample answer: Several reasons justify contacting high-propensity voters even though their marginal mobilization impact is small. First, morale and relational maintenance in base communities matters for organizational health; ignoring your strongest supporters can depress enthusiasm and reduce volunteer recruitment. Second, high-propensity voters are embedded in social networks, and contact with them may mobilize their less-engaged contacts through conversation. Third, the campaign may be uncertain about which voters are truly high-propensity — a "sure thing" voter may not be. Fourth, there are communication goals beyond mobilization (issue messaging, donation solicitation) that may justify the contact.
13. What is the key difference between the expressive and instrumental theories of why people vote, and what different campaign strategies follow from each theory?
Sample answer: Instrumental voting theory holds that people vote to influence outcomes — their ballot is an input into a decision process. This implies campaigns should emphasize the closeness of the race and the stakes of the outcome to increase the perceived efficacy of each vote. Expressive voting theory holds that people vote to affirm identity, fulfill duty, or participate in community. This implies campaigns should emphasize civic identity, group solidarity, and the act of voting itself as meaningful regardless of outcome. In practice, effective GOTV messaging typically combines both: emphasizing both "your vote matters" (instrumental) and "voting is your duty/identity" (expressive).