Chapter 18 Quiz: Fundamentals Models

Multiple Choice

1. "Retrospective voting" refers to:

a) Analyzing past elections to predict future ones b) Voters evaluating the incumbent's performance and voting accordingly c) Voters choosing candidates based on future policy promises d) The tendency of fundamentals models to overfit historical data

2. The Time for Change model (Abramowitz) uses which three primary variables?

a) Unemployment rate, consumer confidence, and candidate favorability b) Q2 GDP growth, June presidential net approval, and first-term incumbency dummy c) Real disposable income growth, war casualties, and presidential approval d) Generic ballot, seats in play, and inflation rate

3. Douglas Hibbs's "Bread and Peace" model predicts presidential elections using:

a) Real GDP growth and inflation b) Weighted real disposable income growth and military casualties c) Presidential approval and economic growth d) Consumer confidence and unemployment

4. Research suggests the incumbency advantage in House elections has:

a) Remained stable at approximately 8 points since the 1960s b) Increased as incumbents gain access to more campaign technology c) Declined from roughly 5-8 points in earlier decades to roughly 2-4 points today d) Increased in competitive districts but decreased in safe districts

5. The "second quarter" focus in many fundamentals models (using Q2 GDP) reflects:

a) The requirement that GDP data be available before the election b) The theory that voters weight recent economic conditions more heavily than older ones c) Standard practice in economic forecasting of government budgets d) A legal requirement for government data publication timing

6. A "polls-plus" model, as opposed to a "polls-only" model, differs in that it:

a) Includes more polls from higher-rated pollsters b) Adds economic fundamentals data as an additional input alongside polls c) Uses only polls from non-partisan organizations d) Weights each individual poll by the square of its sample size

7. The key limitation of applying national fundamentals models to individual Senate races is:

a) Senate elections don't happen in presidential years b) Senate races are decided by state legislatures, not popular votes c) Individual races are influenced by local factors that national models can't capture d) Fundamentals models require a minimum of 50 years of data to be valid

8. Which of the following is NOT a reason the incumbency advantage has declined?

a) Increased partisan sorting and straight-ticket voting b) Nationalization of congressional elections c) Decline of local media d) Increases in campaign spending limits

9. The "first-term incumbency" variable in the TFC model is significant because:

a) First-term presidents always win re-election b) Voters tend to want a "time for change" after two or more consecutive terms of the same party c) First-term presidents have more campaign funding d) Second-term elections occur in off years with lower turnout

10. The distinction between prediction and explanation, as applied to fundamentals models, means:

a) Models that predict accurately have necessarily identified the causal mechanisms b) Models can predict election outcomes from structural variables without explaining how those variables causally produce the outcomes c) Explanation is more important than prediction in political science d) Fundamentals models cannot make predictions — only explanations

True/False

11. Fundamentals models using only economic data can predict presidential popular vote outcomes more accurately than the final polls in most election cycles. (True/False — with context)

12. Rising unemployment is the single strongest economic predictor of presidential election outcomes. (True/False — explain)

13. Presidential approval ratings are a useful forecasting variable because they summarize voters' comprehensive assessment of incumbent performance, including economic, foreign policy, and personal factors. (True/False)

14. A fundamentals model predicting the national popular vote would be equally useful for predicting individual House district outcomes. (True/False — explain)

15. According to the chapter, major campaign events and advertising have essentially no effect on election outcomes. (True/False — explain with the nuanced view)

Short Answer

16. What is "party fatigue" and how does it appear in the Time for Change model?

17. Explain why a fundamentals model estimated on 18 observations (post-WWII presidential elections) might be less reliable than it appears, even if it has predicted recent elections well.

18. The chapter mentions that the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic complicated fundamentals models. Describe two specific ways the pandemic created problems for standard structural forecasting variables.

19. What is the "generic ballot" and how does it function differently from a normal horse-race poll in a specific race?

20. Why do Sides and Vavreck argue that campaigns "matter" even while accepting that fundamentals models have strong predictive power? How do they reconcile these two claims?

Answer Key

  1. b
  2. b
  3. b
  4. c
  5. b
  6. b
  7. c
  8. d
  9. b
  10. b
  11. Conditionally true — fundamentals models are often more accurate than polls taken months in advance, but the final polls typically outperform them close to Election Day when properly aggregated.
  12. False — real disposable personal income growth and GDP growth are generally stronger predictors; unemployment affects a smaller fraction of voters directly.
  13. True
  14. False — the ecological fallacy applies; national relationships do not directly translate to individual district outcomes, which are influenced by local candidates, events, and conditions.
  15. False — the chapter cites Sides and Vavreck's nuanced position: campaigns matter at the margins, prime voters to think about structural conditions, and can be decisive when one side has significant resource advantages; they don't irrelevant, but their effects are often smaller than observers expect.
  16. The tendency for voters to seek a change in party after multiple consecutive terms; the TFC model captures it through a first-term incumbency dummy, which shows that incumbent-party candidates perform worse after two or more terms.
  17. Small samples risk overfitting; coefficients may capture historical idiosyncrasies rather than genuine structural relationships; a few unusual elections (COVID, unprecedented candidates) can significantly change estimates.
  18. (1) Q2 2020 saw historically severe GDP contraction that was not experienced as a normal recession and may not have been attributed to the incumbent; (2) the rapid Q3 recovery meant that standard time-period choices (Q2) gave dramatically different signals than Q3, and the "right" window was unclear.
  19. The generic ballot asks respondents to choose between a generic Republican and generic Democrat candidate in their congressional district, measuring the overall national partisan climate rather than preferences in a specific race.
  20. Sides and Vavreck argue that campaigns "prime" voters to think about conditions the fundamentals have established; well-matched campaigns cancel each other out, but campaigns can matter when resource advantages or messaging failures create asymmetric information environments. The fundamentals set the range; campaigns determine where within the range the result falls.