Chapter 11 Exercises: The American Voter and Beyond

These exercises are organized into three tiers. Foundational problems test your grasp of core concepts. Analytical problems ask you to apply and synthesize ideas. Advanced problems require original reasoning, quantitative work, or engagement with primary sources.

Foundational Tier

1. Define and Distinguish In your own words, explain the difference between party identification and party registration. Why does this distinction matter for survey research? Give one example where a voter's registration and psychological party ID might diverge.

2. The Funnel of Causality Draw the funnel of causality as described in the Michigan model. Label each section of the funnel with the appropriate causal factors (from long-term background conditions to the proximate vote decision). Where in the funnel would you place (a) the economy, (b) candidate personality, (c) racial identity, and (d) a campaign advertisement?

3. Perceptual Screen in Action Explain in your own words what it means for party identification to act as a "perceptual screen." Provide two concrete examples of how this mechanism might operate during a campaign — one where a partisan voter evaluates a news story about their preferred candidate and one where they evaluate a policy proposal from the opposing party.

4. Retrospective vs. Prospective Voting What is the difference between retrospective and prospective voting? Which model do V.O. Key and Morris Fiorina emphasize? Provide a real-world example of each type of voting from elections you know about.

5. Key's Challenge to the Michigan Model V.O. Key famously argued that "voters are not fools." What was he responding to, and what evidence or argument did he offer? How does his argument relate to the concept of retrospective voting?

6. Social Identity Theory Define social identity theory in 3-4 sentences. How does it help explain why voters support candidates from their own social group even when they know little about those candidates' policy positions?

7. Symbolic vs. Positional Issues Classify each of the following as primarily a symbolic issue or a positional issue, and briefly explain your reasoning: a. The exact dollar amount of the federal minimum wage b. "Law and order" as a campaign theme c. The specific structure of a Medicare prescription drug negotiation policy d. Border security rhetoric e. A tax bracket change from 37% to 35%

Analytical Tier

8. Applying Theory to a Voter Profile A voter named Patricia, 58, grew up in a working-class Democratic household, became a small business owner in her 30s, and switched to Republican registration in 2004. She voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, then Trump in 2016 and 2020. Using at least two different vote choice theories from this chapter, construct an explanation for Patricia's voting history. Which theory do you find most convincing, and why?

9. The Converse-vs.-Revisionist Debate Philip Converse found that most Americans in the 1950s lacked ideological constraint. Nie, Verba, and Petrocik found more constraint in the 1970s. But critics argued the change was a survey artifact. Write a 400-500 word analysis that (a) explains both sides of this debate, (b) explains what methodological lesson it teaches about survey research, and (c) assesses what the most likely truth is about the extent of ideological constraint in mass publics.

10. Fiorina's Running Tally Morris Fiorina argued that party identification is a "running tally" of retrospective evaluations, not a fixed inherited identity. How does this view differ from the original Michigan model? What empirical evidence would help you determine which view is more accurate? Design a hypothetical survey that could test Fiorina's running tally hypothesis.

11. Spatial Model Critique The Downsian spatial model predicts that rational candidates will converge toward the median voter. Yet in contemporary American politics, candidates rarely converge — parties nominate ideologically distinct candidates, and general election candidates maintain significant policy distance from each other. What does this empirical pattern suggest about the spatial model's assumptions? Identify at least three assumptions of the model that may be violated in real elections, and for each, describe the modification that would bring the model closer to reality.

12. The Garza-Whitfield Electorate Through Multiple Lenses Using the Michigan model, retrospective voting theory, and social identity theory, write a brief analysis (500-600 words) of how each framework would approach the Garza-Whitfield race. What would each framework predict about the behavior of genuinely persuadable voters in this state? Where do the three frameworks' predictions agree, and where do they diverge?

13. Comparative Vote Choice Select any non-American democracy you are familiar with and compare its dominant vote choice model to the Michigan model. Does cleavage theory apply better than party ID in your chosen country? What historical factors explain the differences you observe?

Advanced Tier

14. The Endogeneity Problem Some political scientists argue that party identification is endogenous to issue positions — that people adjust their party ID to match their policy preferences, not vice versa. Others maintain that party ID is prior to and causative of policy preferences. Design a research strategy that could help adjudicate between these competing causal claims. Your design should address (a) the identification problem (how do you establish causal direction?), (b) what data you would need, (c) what methods you would use, and (d) what confounders you would need to control for. Note limitations of your design.

15. Symbolic Politics and Campaign Strategy Using the symbolic politics framework (Sears et al.), write a strategic memorandum of 600-800 words to a hypothetical campaign managing a candidate who wants to make immigration a central campaign issue. Your memo should (a) explain the distinction between symbolic and positional issue appeals, (b) analyze the risks and advantages of each approach for immigration, (c) recommend a specific strategy with a rationale grounded in the symbolic politics literature, and (d) identify what types of voters are most and least responsive to symbolic vs. positional appeals.

16. Comparative Evaluation of Vote Choice Theories Write a 700-900 word essay evaluating which theory — party identification (Michigan model), retrospective economic voting, or social identity theory — best explains vote choice in the contemporary American electorate. Your essay should (a) define the empirical predictions of each theory, (b) identify the strongest evidence in favor of each, (c) identify the strongest evidence against each, and (d) defend a conclusion about which is most explanatory for current elections, with appropriate acknowledgment of uncertainty.

17. Data Analysis Challenge Using any publicly available ANES data (the ANES Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior at electionstudies.org), examine the relationship between party identification and presidential vote choice across at least three election years spanning 1984 to the present. Create a table or visualization showing how strongly party ID predicts vote choice over time. Write a 300-400 word interpretation of what you find and what it implies for the stability of the Michigan model.

18. Integrating Issue Voting and Identity A critic of social identity theory argues that it cannot explain vote switching — if people vote based on group identity, why do individual voters ever change their party support? Construct a response to this critique that integrates social identity theory with retrospective voting and positional issue voting to explain the conditions under which voters switch parties. Your response should be 400-500 words and use at least one historical example.