Part II: Core Analytics and Metrics

"Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts. But in soccer analytics, the art is knowing the difference."

Overview

Part II introduces the fundamental metrics and analytical frameworks that form the backbone of modern soccer analytics. These five chapters cover the most important quantitative tools used by professional analysts worldwide, from expected goals to passing networks to possession valuation.

By the end of Part II, you will:

• Build and evaluate expected goals (xG) models from scratch
• Understand expected assists and creative contribution metrics
• Apply the expected threat (xT) framework to value ball progression
• Construct and analyze passing networks using graph theory
• Measure possession quality and territorial control

Chapters in This Part

Chapter 7: Expected Goals (xG)

The most important metric in modern soccer analytics. We build xG models from scratch, covering feature engineering, model selection, calibration, and interpretation. You'll understand not just how to calculate xG, but when and why to use it.

Chapter 8: Expected Assists (xA)

Moving beyond the final shot to value the passes that create chances. This chapter develops frameworks for measuring creative contribution, playmaking quality, and chance creation across different contexts.

Chapter 9: Expected Threat (xT)

Valuing every action on the pitch by how much it increases goal-scoring probability. The xT framework provides a unified way to evaluate passes, carries, and other actions that move the ball toward dangerous areas.

Chapter 10: Passing Networks

Applying graph theory to understand team structure and dynamics. Passing networks reveal how teams organize their play, identify key connectors, and expose vulnerabilities in opposition structures.

Chapter 11: Possession and Control

Beyond simple possession percentage to meaningful measures of ball control, territorial dominance, and pressing effectiveness. We examine what good possession looks like and when possession without penetration becomes counterproductive.

Learning Path

These chapters build on each other but can also be studied in flexible order:

Chapter 7 (xG) ──→ Chapter 8 (xA) ──→ Chapter 9 (xT)
                                            │
                                            ▼
                    Chapter 10 (Passing) ──→ Chapter 11 (Possession)

• Chapters 7-9 form a natural sequence around expected value frameworks
• Chapters 10-11 extend into structural and territorial analysis
• All five chapters assume completion of Part I foundations

Time Investment

Plan for approximately 5-7 weeks to complete Part II thoroughly if studying part-time.

What Comes Next

After completing Part II, you'll be equipped with the core analytical tools used across the industry. Part III: Player and Team Analysis will show you how to synthesize these metrics into comprehensive evaluation frameworks for individual players, goalkeepers, set pieces, and entire teams.

The metrics you learn here are the building blocks. Part III teaches you to build with them.

Let's begin with Chapter 7: Expected Goals (xG) -- the metric that changed everything.

Chapters in This Part

• Chapter 7: Expected Goals (xG) Models
• Chapter 8: Expected Assists and Chance Creation
• Chapter 9: Expected Threat (xT) and Ball Progression
• Chapter 10: Passing Networks and Analysis
• Chapter 11: Possession and Territorial Control