Further Reading: Comprehensive Case Studies
This annotated bibliography provides resources for deeper exploration of the techniques and domains covered in Chapter 29's six case studies.
xG Pipeline (Case Study 29.1)
Essential References
Rathke, A. (2017). "An examination of expected goals and shot efficiency in soccer." Journal of Human Sport and Exercise, 12(2), 514--529. Rigorous statistical treatment of xG model construction and evaluation.
Best for: Understanding the mathematical foundations of xG models
Caley, M. (2015). "Premier League Projections and New Expected Goals." Cartilage Free Captain Blog. One of the earliest public xG models with detailed methodology, providing historical context for modern approaches.
Best for: Understanding the evolution of xG from simple models to sophisticated pipelines
Platt, J. C. (1999). "Probabilistic outputs for support vector machines and comparisons to regularized likelihood methods." Advances in Large Margin Classifiers, 61--74. MIT Press. The original paper on Platt scaling, the calibration technique applied to xG models.
Best for: Deep understanding of probability calibration methods
Niculescu-Mizil, A., & Caruana, R. (2005). "Predicting good probabilities with supervised learning." Proceedings of ICML 2005. Comprehensive comparison of calibration methods for various classifier families.
Best for: Choosing between isotonic regression and Platt scaling
Scouting Analytics (Case Study 29.2)
Essential References
Sumpter, D. (2016). Soccermatics: Mathematical Adventures in the Beautiful Game. Bloomsbury Publishing. Chapters on clustering and player similarity provide accessible introductions to the mathematical techniques underlying scouting analytics.
Best for: Conceptual understanding of quantitative scouting
Kuper, S., & Szymanski, S. (2018). Soccernomics (5th ed.). Nation Books. Covers the economics of the transfer market and the statistical patterns that predict transfer success and failure.
Best for: Understanding the financial context of scouting decisions
Decroos, T., Bransen, L., Van Haaren, J., & Davis, J. (2019). "Actions Speak Louder than Goals: Valuing Player Actions in Soccer." Proceedings of KDD 2019. The VAEP framework for action valuation, which provides a principled basis for player comparison.
Best for: Advanced player evaluation metrics beyond goals and assists
Tactical Analysis (Case Study 29.3)
Essential References
Pena, J. L., & Touchette, H. (2012). "A network theory analysis of football strategies." arXiv preprint arXiv:1206.6904. Foundational paper applying network analysis to passing patterns in soccer.
Best for: Theoretical foundation for passing network analysis
Fernandez-Navarro, J., Fradua, L., Zubillaga, A., Ford, P. R., & McRobert, A. P. (2016). "Evaluating the effectiveness of styles of play in elite soccer." Journal of Sports Sciences, 34(16), 1545--1552. Empirical analysis of different tactical approaches and their relationship to match outcomes.
Best for: Understanding how tactical metrics relate to performance
Power, P., Ruiz, H., Wei, X., & Lucey, P. (2017). "Not All Passes Are Created Equal: Objectively Measuring the Risk and Reward of Passes in Soccer." KDD 2017. Framework for valuing passes using positional data, essential for advanced passing network analysis.
Best for: Moving beyond pass count to pass value in network analysis
Injury Prevention (Case Study 29.4)
Essential References
Gabbett, T. J. (2016). "The training-injury prevention paradox: should athletes be training smarter and harder?" British Journal of Sports Medicine, 50(5), 273--280. Seminal paper on the Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio and the "U-shaped" relationship between training load and injury risk.
Best for: Foundational understanding of workload monitoring
Windt, J., & Gabbett, T. J. (2017). "How do training and competition workloads relate to injury? The workload-injury aetiology model." British Journal of Sports Medicine, 51(5), 428--435. Extension of the ACWR framework with additional contextual factors.
Best for: Understanding the limitations and extensions of ACWR
Rossi, A., Pappalardo, L., Cintia, P., Iaia, F. M., Fernandez, J., & Medina, D. (2018). "Effective injury forecasting in soccer with GPS training data and machine learning." PLoS ONE, 13(7), e0201264. Practical application of ML to injury prediction using GPS data.
Best for: Implementing data-driven injury risk models
Match Preparation (Case Study 29.5)
Essential References
Fernandez, J., & Bornn, L. (2018). "Wide Open Spaces: A statistical technique for measuring space creation in professional soccer." MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Techniques for spatial analysis relevant to opponent profiling.
Best for: Advanced spatial analysis for match preparation
Impect. (2019). "Packing: A new way of analyzing football." Impect GmbH Technical Report. The packing metric quantifies how many opponents a player bypasses with a pass or carry, useful for opponent build-up analysis.
Best for: Alternative frameworks for evaluating opponent progression patterns
Player Development (Case Study 29.6)
Essential References
Kahn, J. (2023). "Age curves in soccer: A comprehensive analysis." Journal of Sports Analytics, 9(2), 115--131. Empirical analysis of how player performance evolves with age across different metrics and positions.
Best for: Setting appropriate expectations for development trajectories
Singer, J. D., & Willett, J. B. (2003). Applied Longitudinal Data Analysis. Oxford University Press. Comprehensive textbook on methods for analyzing change over time, directly applicable to player development tracking.
Best for: Statistical methodology for longitudinal analysis
General Analytics Workflow
Books
Provost, F., & Fawcett, T. (2013). Data Science for Business. O'Reilly Media. Excellent framework for thinking about data science projects in business contexts, with principles that translate directly to sports analytics.
Best for: Structuring analytics projects for decision-making impact
Tufte, E. R. (2001). The Visual Display of Quantitative Information (2nd ed.). Graphics Press. The definitive reference on statistical visualization, essential for the communication phase of any analytics project.
Best for: Creating clear, effective visualizations for stakeholder presentations
Online Resources
- StatsBomb Articles: statsbomb.com/articles --- Regular long-form articles covering xG, scouting, and tactical analytics.
- Between the Posts: betweentheposts.net --- Tactical and statistical analysis blog with detailed methodology.
- Friends of Tracking: youtube.com/friendsoftracking --- Video tutorials covering tracking data, xG, and pitch control models.
- The Athletic Tactics: Subscription-based but high-quality tactical analysis combining data and video.
- Karun Singh's blog: Pioneering work on xT (expected threat) and other spatial metrics.