Chapter 8: Further Reading

Overview

This curated collection of resources extends your understanding of Expected Assists (xA), chance creation analysis, and creative player evaluation. Resources span academic research, industry applications, and practical implementations.

Academic Papers

Foundational Research

1. "Valuing On-the-Ball Actions in Soccer" - Decroos et al. (2019) - Introduces VAEP framework for valuing all on-ball actions including passes - Provides mathematical foundation for action valuation - Link: KU Leuven DTAI Research Group publications

2. "Actions Speak Louder than Goals: Valuing Player Actions in Soccer" - Decroos et al. (2019) - Comprehensive framework for player action evaluation - Includes passing and chance creation components - Published in KDD '19 proceedings

3. "A Framework for the Fine-Grained Evaluation of the Instantaneous Expected Value of Soccer Possessions" - Fernández et al. (2019) - Expected Possession Value (EPV) model - Continuous valuation of possession states - Relevant for understanding pre-assist contributions

4. "Decomposing the Immeasurable Sport: A deep learning expected possession value framework for soccer" - Fernández & Bornn (2018) - Deep learning approach to possession valuation - Framework applicable to chance creation analysis - MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

5. "Wide Open Spaces: A statistical technique for measuring space creation in professional soccer" - Fernández & Bornn (2018) - Quantifying space creation through off-ball movement - Complements xA by measuring non-pass contributions - MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Pass Analysis Research

6. "Not All Passes Are Created Equal: Objectively Measuring the Risk and Reward of Passes in Soccer from Tracking Data" - Power et al. (2017) - Risk-reward framework for pass evaluation - Foundation for understanding pass difficulty - MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

7. "Passing Networks in Soccer" - Peña & Touchette (2012) - Network analysis of passing patterns - Understanding team passing structure - Chaos, Complexity, and Entropy conference

8. "Quality vs Quantity: Evaluating Player Passing Ability" - McHale & Relton (2018) - Statistical methods for pass quality assessment - Separating pass volume from pass value - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society

9. "Expected Goals and Expected Assists in Professional Football" - Casal et al. (2020) - Empirical analysis of xG and xA relationships - Validation across European leagues - International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching

10. "Exploring the Effects of Playing Styles on the Success of Football Players in Different Positions" - Bransen et al. (2019)

    • Position-specific analysis of player contributions
    • Relevant for contextualizing xA by position
    • MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Chance Creation and Build-Up

11. "SoccerMix: Representing Soccer Actions with Mixture Models" - Decroos et al. (2020)

    • Clustering player actions including creative plays
    • Pattern recognition in chance creation
    • ECML PKDD 2020

12. "The Problem with Expected Goals" - Spearman (2017)

    • Critical analysis of xG limitations
    • Implications for xA interpretation
    • OptaPro Analytics Forum

13. "Physics-Based Modeling of Pass Probabilities in Soccer" - Spearman et al. (2017)

    • Modeling pass completion probabilities
    • Foundation for expected threat models
    • MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

14. "Beyond Expected Goals" - Caley (2015)

    • Early exploration of xG extensions
    • Discussion of chance creation metrics
    • Influential blog post series

Books

Soccer Analytics

15. "The Expected Goals Philosophy" - James Tippett (2019)

    • Accessible introduction to xG concepts
    • Includes xA discussion and applications
    • Good for conceptual understanding

16. "Soccermatics" - David Sumpter (2016)

    • Mathematical modeling in soccer
    • Passing patterns and network analysis
    • Academic yet accessible approach

17. "Football Hackers" - Christoph Biermann (2019)

    • History of analytics adoption in soccer
    • Profiles of analysts and their methods
    • Industry context and evolution

18. "Net Gains" - Ryan O'Hanlon (2022)

    • Modern soccer analytics landscape
    • Player evaluation methods
    • Industry applications and case studies

19. "The Numbers Game" - Anderson & Sally (2013)

    • Statistical analysis of soccer
    • Foundation for advanced metrics
    • Accessible statistical thinking

Statistical Methods

20. "An Introduction to Statistical Learning" - James et al. (2021)

    • Essential statistical learning concepts
    • Regression and classification methods
    • Free PDF available (statlearning.com)

21. "Python for Data Analysis" - Wes McKinney (2022, 3rd Ed.)

    • Pandas creator's guide
    • Essential for soccer data manipulation
    • Practical Python applications

22. "Hands-On Machine Learning" - Aurélien Géron (2022, 3rd Ed.)

    • Scikit-learn and TensorFlow applications
    • Model building and evaluation
    • Applicable to xA model development

Online Courses and Tutorials

Soccer Analytics Specific

23. Mathematical Modelling of Football - Uppsala University

    • Free course on soccer analytics
    • Includes expected metrics coverage
    • Available on Uppsala University website

24. Friends of Tracking YouTube Channel

    • Video tutorials on soccer analytics
    • xG and pass analysis implementations
    • Python code examples
    • Link: youtube.com/friendsoftracking

25. McKay Johns Analytics Tutorials

    • Practical soccer analytics guides
    • StatsBomb data tutorials
    • Visualization techniques
    • Link: youtube.com/mckayjohns

26. FC Python Tutorials

    • Soccer analytics in Python
    • Data collection and analysis
    • Beginner-friendly approach
    • Link: fcpython.com

Data Science Foundations

27. Coursera: Applied Data Science with Python

    • University of Michigan specialization
    • Pandas, visualization, machine learning
    • Applicable skills for soccer analysis

28. DataCamp: Python for Data Science

    • Interactive Python learning
    • Statistics and visualization
    • Machine learning fundamentals

29. Fast.ai Practical Deep Learning

    • Modern machine learning approaches
    • Tabular data applications
    • Free online course

Industry Blogs and Websites

Analytics Platforms

30. StatsBomb Articles

    • Industry-leading analysis
    • xA methodology explanations
    • Player evaluation examples
    • Link: statsbomb.com/articles

31. FBref Expected Stats Guide

    • Comprehensive metric explanations
    • xA and SCA definitions
    • League-wide data access
    • Link: fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained

32. Opta Analytics Blog

    • Provider methodology insights
    • Event data explanations
    • Industry applications
    • Link: optasports.com/services/analytics

33. Wyscout Research

    • Scouting platform insights
    • Player evaluation methods
    • Video and data integration
    • Link: wyscout.com

Independent Analysts

34. The Athletic - Soccer Analytics

    • Premium long-form analysis
    • xA applications in player evaluation
    • Tactical analysis with data
    • Link: theathletic.com

35. Statsbomb's Ted Knutson

    • Industry pioneer perspectives
    • Metric development insights
    • Historical context

36. Michael Caley's Work

    • xG and xA methodology development
    • Influential early analysis
    • Historical xG model documentation

37. American Soccer Analysis

    • MLS-focused analytics
    • Expected metrics explanations
    • Team and player analysis
    • Link: americansocceranalysis.com

38. Total Football Analysis

    • Tactical and data analysis
    • Player profiles with xA
    • European league coverage
    • Link: totalfootballanalysis.com

39. Between the Posts

    • xG shot maps and analysis
    • Match-level xA summaries
    • European league coverage
    • Link: betweentheposts.net

40. Soccerment

    • Advanced metrics platform
    • xA and creativity metrics
    • Player comparison tools
    • Link: soccerment.com

Data Sources

Free Data

41. StatsBomb Open Data

    • High-quality event data
    • Key pass and shot linkage
    • Multiple competitions
    • Link: github.com/statsbomb/open-data

42. Understat

    • xG and xA data for top leagues
    • Shot-level information
    • API available
    • Link: understat.com

43. FBref

    • Comprehensive statistics
    • xG, xA, SCA, GCA data
    • Historical data access
    • Link: fbref.com

44. Transfermarkt

    • Player and match data
    • Market values and transfers
    • Extensive historical records
    • Link: transfermarkt.com

45. WhoScored

    • Event data and ratings
    • Pass statistics
    • Match reports
    • Link: whoscored.com

Commercial Data

46. StatsBomb 360

    • Full event and tracking data
    • Freeze frame information
    • Industry standard for clubs
    • Link: statsbomb.com

47. Opta/Stats Perform

    • Comprehensive event data
    • Expected metrics included
    • Used by major leagues
    • Link: optasports.com

48. Wyscout

    • Scouting platform with data
    • Video integration
    • Global coverage
    • Link: wyscout.com

49. SkillCorner

    • Broadcast tracking data
    • Physical metrics
    • Off-ball movement data
    • Link: skillcorner.com

50. Second Spectrum

    • Optical tracking data
    • EPL official provider
    • Advanced spatial metrics
    • Link: secondspectrum.com

Code Libraries and Tools

Python Libraries

51. statsbombpy

    • Official StatsBomb Python API
    • Easy data access
    • Event data parsing
    • Link: github.com/statsbomb/statsbombpy

52. mplsoccer

    • Soccer visualization library
    • Pitch plots and heatmaps
    • Pass maps and shot charts
    • Link: mplsoccer.readthedocs.io

53. socceraction

    • SPADL and VAEP implementation
    • Action valuation framework
    • Research-quality code
    • Link: github.com/ML-KULeuven/socceraction

54. kloppy

    • Multi-provider data loading
    • Standardized data format
    • Event and tracking data
    • Link: github.com/PySport/kloppy

55. pandas

    • Data manipulation essential
    • Groupby operations for aggregation
    • Time series handling
    • Link: pandas.pydata.org

56. scikit-learn

    • Machine learning models
    • Model evaluation tools
    • Feature preprocessing
    • Link: scikit-learn.org

Visualization Tools

57. matplotlib

    • Core plotting library
    • Customizable visualizations
    • Publication-quality figures
    • Link: matplotlib.org

58. seaborn

    • Statistical visualization
    • Beautiful default styles
    • Built on matplotlib
    • Link: seaborn.pydata.org

59. plotly

    • Interactive visualizations
    • Web-based dashboards
    • Animation support
    • Link: plotly.com/python

Podcasts and Video Content

Podcasts

60. The Double Pivot

    • Soccer analytics discussion
    • Industry guest interviews
    • Metric explanations

61. Tifo Football Podcast

    • Tactical and analytical content
    • Accessible explanations
    • Wide topic coverage

62. Analytics FC Podcast

    • Analytics industry focus
    • Practitioner interviews
    • Technical discussions

63. Expected Value Podcast

    • Data-driven soccer analysis
    • Statistical concepts
    • Industry applications

YouTube Channels

64. Tifo Football

    • Animated explainers
    • Tactical analysis
    • Metric explanations
    • Link: youtube.com/tifofootball

65. The Analyst (Opta)

    • Official Opta content
    • Data visualizations
    • Industry insights
    • Link: youtube.com/theanalyst

66. Friends of Tracking

    • Academic tutorials
    • Code implementations
    • Research presentations
    • Link: youtube.com/friendsoftracking

Conference Proceedings and Presentations

Research Conferences

67. MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

    • Annual research presentations
    • Soccer analytics papers
    • Industry networking
    • Link: sloansportsconference.com

68. OptaPro Forum

    • Industry-focused presentations
    • Practitioner insights
    • Applied research
    • Historical presentations available online

69. Statsbomb Conference

    • Annual analytics conference
    • Research and applications
    • Video presentations available
    • Link: statsbomb.com/conference

70. ECML PKDD Sports Analytics Workshop

    • Academic machine learning focus
    • Soccer analytics papers
    • Cutting-edge research

71. KDD Sports Analytics Workshop

    • Data mining applications
    • Player evaluation research
    • Network analysis in sports

Specific Topics Deep Dives

Through Balls and Progressive Passes

72. "The Value of Progressive Passes" - Ligue 1 analysis

    • Quantifying forward passes
    • Build-up contribution metrics
    • Link: Various analytics blogs

73. StatsBomb Through Ball Analysis

    • Methodology explanation
    • Player rankings
    • Tactical implications

Crossing Analysis

74. "The Art of the Cross" - Various authors

    • Cross effectiveness studies
    • Type and location analysis
    • xA implications

75. American Soccer Analysis Crossing Studies

    • MLS-focused crossing analysis
    • Efficiency metrics
    • Position-specific findings

Set Piece Creativity

76. Set Piece Analysis Series - StatsBomb
    • Corner and free kick analysis
    • xA from set pieces
    • Design and execution

Partnership Analysis

77. "Chemistry in Football" - Various research
    • Passer-shooter combinations
    • Network analysis applications
    • Team cohesion metrics

Historical Context

Evolution of Chance Creation Metrics

78. "The History of Assists in Soccer Statistics"

    • From basic counts to expected metrics
    • Provider methodology evolution
    • Standardization challenges

79. "From Key Passes to xA" - Industry evolution

    • Metric development timeline
    • Provider adoption
    • Current standards

80. Early Analytics Pioneers

    • Charles Reep's passing analysis
    • Egil Olsen's direct play studies
    • Foundation for modern metrics

Recommended Learning Path

Beginner (Weeks 1-4)

1. Start with FBref's expected goals explanation
2. Read "The Expected Goals Philosophy"
3. Complete FC Python tutorials
4. Explore StatsBomb Open Data

Intermediate (Weeks 5-12)

1. Read Decroos et al. VAEP paper
2. Study mplsoccer documentation
3. Implement basic xA calculation
4. Analyze player creativity profiles

Advanced (Weeks 13+)

1. Study Fernández EPV framework
2. Implement SCA/GCA from scratch
3. Build pass probability models
4. Explore socceraction library
5. Read MIT Sloan Conference papers

Citation Formats

When citing xA research, use these formats:

Academic Paper:

Decroos, T., Bransen, L., Van Haaren, J., & Davis, J. (2019).
Actions speak louder than goals: Valuing player actions in soccer.
Proceedings of the 25th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on
Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining.

Data Provider:

StatsBomb. (2023). StatsBomb Open Data. Retrieved from
https://github.com/statsbomb/open-data

Blog Post:

Caley, M. (2015). Expected Assists and Shot Contribution.
Cartilage Free Captain. Retrieved from [URL]

Keeping Current

Following Updates

• Twitter/X: @StatsBomb, @OptaAnalyst, @Soccerment
• Reddit: r/soccernerd, r/FantasyPL (for metric discussions)
• GitHub: Watch socceraction and statsbombpy repositories
• Conferences: Annual Sloan, OptaPro, StatsBomb events

Newsletter Recommendations

• StatsBomb Newsletter
• The Athletic Analytics Coverage
• American Soccer Analysis Updates

Resource Quality Notes

High Confidence Sources: - Academic papers (peer-reviewed) - StatsBomb methodology documentation - Opta official documentation

Good Quality Sources: - Established analysts' blogs - FBref explanations - Conference presentations

Use with Caution: - Social media analysis (verify methods) - Older blog posts (methods may be outdated) - Non-attributed analysis

Last updated: January 2025. Links and availability may change. For the most current resources, check provider websites directly.