Further Reading: Statistical Foundations

Essential Books

Statistics Fundamentals

"Statistics Done Wrong: The Woefully Complete Guide" by Alex Reinhart - Outstanding coverage of common statistical errors - Highly relevant sections on p-values, confidence intervals, and reproducibility - Accessible writing with real-world examples - Why read it: Avoid the most common statistical pitfalls in your analyses

"The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data" by David Spiegelhalter - Modern introduction to statistical thinking - Excellent coverage of probability and inference - Uses compelling real-world examples - Why read it: Builds intuition for what statistics can and cannot tell us

"Naked Statistics" by Charles Wheelan - Engaging introduction for those intimidated by math - Clear explanations of regression to the mean - Good foundation for understanding statistical reasoning - Why read it: Accessible starting point for statistical literacy

Sports Analytics Applications

"Mathletics" by Wayne Winston - Comprehensive sports analytics textbook - Sections on rating systems, regression, and probability - Includes soccer-specific examples - Why read it: Bridges general statistics with sports applications

"Analyzing Baseball Data with R" (2nd ed.) by Marchi, Albert, and Baumer - While baseball-focused, statistical methods transfer directly - Excellent coverage of Bayesian thinking and regression - Strong R code examples (concepts apply to Python) - Why read it: See how professional sports analysts apply statistics

"The Expected Goals Philosophy" by James Tippett - Foundational text for modern soccer analytics - Covers statistical basis of xG models - Discussion of luck vs skill separation - Why read it: Understand the statistical thinking behind xG

Advanced Topics

"Statistical Rethinking" by Richard McElreath - Modern Bayesian statistics textbook - Excellent coverage of causal inference - Challenging but rewarding - Why read it: Take your statistical reasoning to the next level

"Mostly Harmless Econometrics" by Angrist and Pischke - Rigorous treatment of causal inference - Instrumental variables, differences-in-differences - Graduate level but highly influential - Why read it: Understand how to move from correlation to causation

Academic Papers

Foundational Sports Analytics

Reep, C. & Benjamin, B. (1968) "Skill and Chance in Association Football" Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A - Pioneering statistical analysis of soccer - Early use of Poisson distribution for goals - Established many analytical traditions

Maher, M.J. (1982) "Modelling Association Football Scores" Statistica Neerlandica - Foundation for modern goal-scoring models - Independent Poisson model for home/away goals - Still-influential methodology

Sample Size and Stabilization

Schuckers, M. & Curro, J. (2013) "Total Hockey Rating (THoR): A comprehensive statistical rating of National Hockey League forwards and defensemen based upon all on-ice events" - Detailed analysis of metric stabilization - Methods applicable to soccer - Available at: statsportsconsulting.com

Tango, T., Lichtman, M., & Dolphin, A. (2007) "The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball" - Chapter on sample size and reliability - Foundational for understanding metric stabilization

Regression to the Mean in Sports

Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1973) "On the Psychology of Prediction" Psychological Review - Classic paper on base rates and regression - Explains why we consistently fail to account for regression - Foundational for behavioral economics

Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A. (1985) "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences" Cognitive Psychology - Seminal paper on hot streaks - Shows observers see patterns in randomness - Highly relevant to evaluating player "form"

Expected Goals and Shot Quality

Caley, M. (2015) "Premier League Projections and New Expected Goals" cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com - Influential early xG methodology - Clear explanation of shot quality modeling

Rathke, A. (2017) "An Examination of Expected Goals and Shot Efficiency in Soccer" Journal of Human Sport and Exercise - Academic validation of xG concepts - Statistical analysis of shot conversion

Online Resources

Websites and Blogs

American Soccer Analysis americansocceranalysis.com - High-quality statistical analysis - Regular methodology articles - Open data and code sharing

StatsBomb statsbomb.com/articles - Industry-leading analytics content - Technical methodology explanations - Free data for research

FiveThirtyEight Soccer fivethirtyeight.com/tag/soccer - Accessible statistical journalism - Clear explanations of complex methods - Match prediction models

The Analyst theanalyst.com - Opta-powered analysis - Good blend of accessibility and rigor - Regular statistical features

Educational Videos

StatQuest with Josh Starmer (YouTube) - Excellent visual explanations of statistical concepts - Covers regression, probability, inference - Highly accessible

3Blue1Brown (YouTube) - Beautiful mathematical visualizations - Probability and Bayes' theorem videos - Builds deep intuition

Brilliant.org Statistics Course - Interactive learning platform - Well-structured progression - Good for self-paced study

Online Courses

Coursera: "Statistics with Python" Specialization University of Michigan - Comprehensive statistical foundations - Python-based implementation - Covers inference and regression

edX: "Introduction to Probability" Harvard/MIT - Rigorous probability foundations - Excellent for Poisson and binomial distributions - Free audit option

DataCamp: "Statistical Thinking in Python" - Practical, hands-on approach - Sports examples included - Quick interactive format

Software Documentation

Python Statistical Libraries

SciPy Statistics Module docs.scipy.org/doc/scipy/reference/stats.html - Comprehensive reference for statistical functions - Probability distributions, hypothesis tests - Essential for implementation

Statsmodels Documentation statsmodels.org/stable/index.html - Regression and inference - Time series analysis - Statistical tests

Pingouin Documentation pingouin-stats.org - User-friendly statistical package - Effect sizes and Bayesian methods - Cleaner interface than statsmodels

Podcasts

"Not Just Analytics" - Soccer analytics discussions - Statistical methodology episodes - Industry perspectives

"The Football Fanalytics Podcast" - Deep dives into analytical methods - Guest experts from clubs and media - Accessible explanations

"Learning Bayesian Statistics" - General Bayesian methods - Occasional sports applications - Good for advanced learners

MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Papers

The annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (SSAC) publishes cutting-edge research. Key soccer-related papers include:

Various papers on player tracking data analysis
Expected goals model improvements
Team chemistry and network analysis
Injury prediction models

Papers available at: sloansportsconference.com/research-papers

Professional Organizations

Royal Statistical Society rss.org.uk - General statistics community - Publications and events - Professional development

American Statistical Association Section on Statistics in Sports community.amstat.org/sis/home - Dedicated sports statistics community - Journal and conference - Networking opportunities

Summary

Building strong statistical foundations requires engaging with multiple sources across different formats. Start with accessible books to build intuition, then progress to academic papers for rigor. Supplement with online courses for hands-on practice, and stay current through blogs and podcasts. Remember that statistics is learned by doing—work through problems, implement analyses, and critically evaluate claims you encounter in soccer media.