Appendix C — How to Read an Economic Release

Step-by-step guides for the three most important economic data releases.

C.1 The BLS Employment Situation ("Jobs Report")

Released: First Friday of every month, 8:30 a.m. ET. Where: bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

What to look for (in order): 1. Headline payroll number (nonfarm payrolls change) — from the Establishment Survey 2. Unemployment rate (U-3) — from the Household Survey 3. Labor force participation rate — is it rising or falling? 4. U-6 rate — the broader unemployment measure 5. Average hourly earnings (YoY change) — are wages keeping up with inflation? 6. Revisions to the previous two months 7. Industry breakdown — which sectors gained/lost jobs? 8. Household-establishment gap — do the two surveys agree?

The honest summary format: "[X] jobs added in [month]. Unemployment [rose/fell] to [Y]%. Labor force participation [rose/fell/held steady]. Wages grew [Z]% YoY, [above/below] inflation of [W]%. Previous months revised [up/down] by [N]."

C.2 The BLS Consumer Price Index Release

Released: Second week of each month (usually 10th–13th), 8:30 a.m. ET. Where: bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

What to look for: 1. Headline CPI (all items, YoY change) — what consumers experience 2. Core CPI (excluding food and energy, YoY) — what the Fed watches 3. Month-over-month change (seasonally adjusted, annualized) — the most recent trend 4. Food and energy — did they drive the headline? If food/energy spiked but core is stable, the underlying trend is fine 5. Shelter — the largest CPI component; slow-moving but persistent 6. "Supercore" (core services excluding shelter) — the Fed's preferred measure of sticky inflation

C.3 The BEA GDP Release

Released: ~1 month after the quarter ends (advance estimate), then two revisions. Where: bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

What to look for: 1. Annualized real GDP growth rate — the headline number 2. Composition — what drove growth? C (consumer spending), I (business investment), G (government), NX (trade)? 3. Personal consumption — the largest component; if consumption is strong, the economy is usually fine 4. Business investment — forward-looking; signals business confidence 5. Inventories — inventory changes can distort the headline; strip them out for the "final sales" number 6. Revisions to the previous quarter

Red flags: negative GDP growth (recession signal), inventory-driven growth (unsustainable), widening trade deficit (consumption fueled by imports rather than domestic production).