Pre-event estimate: 60% chance A wins debate; expected market impact +5 cents for A win, -3 cents for A loss - Expected value of YES: 0.60 x (+0.05) + 0.40 x (-0.03) = +$0.018 per contract - Position: Small YES buy at 0.56 (100 contracts) - Outcome: A wins debate, price jumps to 0.63 - Sold at 0.63