Field Goal Attempt (52 yards):

Expected make probability: ~60% - Make: +3 points, opponent gets ball at 25 = +3 - 0 EP ≈ +3.0 - Miss: opponent gets ball at 42 = -0.6 EP - FG EV = 0.60 * 3.0 + 0.40 * (-0.6) = 1.8 - 0.24 = **+1.56 EP**