Conversion probability (4th & 3): ~55% - Convert: New 1st down at 32, EP ≈ +2.0 - Fail: Opponent at 35, EP = -0.6 - Go EV = 0.55 * 2.0 + 0.45 * (-0.6) = 1.1 - 0.27 = **+0.83 EP**