Glossary

Polymarket (buy YES) + Kalshi (buy NO):

Cost: $p_{YES}^{Poly} \times 1.01 + p_{NO}^{Kalshi} + 0.03$ - If YES wins: Payout = $1.00. Net = $1.00 - \text{cost}$. - If NO wins: Payout = $1.00. Net = $1.00 - \text{cost}$.

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