Glossary
Spread → Probability:
Each point ≈ 3% probability shift - P(home) = 1 / (1 + 10^(spread/8))
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NFL Analytics
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Key Takeaways: Elo and Power Ratings
Related Terms
"Can Forecasters Forecast?" by Tetlock
1. Crowd Noise (0.5-1.0 points)
2. Travel Fatigue (0.3-0.8 points)
2003-2006: The Amateur Revolution
2006-2010: NFL Takes Interest
2020 Season:
2021-2023:
2023 Context: