Game Theory in Baseball Management

Game Theory in Baseball Management

Baseball managers make dozens of strategic decisions each game. Game theory provides a framework for understanding optimal strategies when outcomes depend on both your choices and your opponent's responses.

Key Applications

• Lineup Construction: Optimal batting order considering matchups
• Bullpen Management: When to pull starters, leverage index usage
• Sacrifice Bunts: Run expectancy vs. win probability analysis
• Intentional Walks: Expected value calculations
• Defensive Shifts: Positioning based on spray charts

Nash Equilibrium in Baseball

When pitcher and batter choices reach equilibrium, neither can improve by unilaterally changing strategy. This applies to pitch selection, swing decisions, and baserunning.

Key Takeaways

• Optimal strategies depend on opponent responses
• Run expectancy tables guide tactical decisions
• Leverage index quantifies bullpen decision importance
• Mixed strategies prevent predictability