Baserunning Value Models

Intermediate 10 min read 0 views Nov 28, 2025

Baserunning Value Models

Baserunning is often undervalued but can add significant runs. Analytics quantifies the value of every baserunning decision.

Components of Baserunning

  • Stolen Bases: Attempts and success rate
  • Extra Bases: Taking extra base on hits
  • Avoiding Outs: Not running into outs on bases
  • Advancing on Outs: Moving up on fly balls, etc.

Stolen Base Break-Even

The success rate needed to add value depends on situation:

SituationBreak-Even Rate
2B Steal (0 out)72%
2B Steal (1 out)70%
2B Steal (2 out)76%
3B Steal (0 out)79%

Key Takeaways

  • Run expectancy determines break-even rates
  • Speed adds value beyond just stolen bases
  • Taking extra bases can add 5+ runs per season
  • Good baserunners avoid outs on the basepaths

Discussion

Have questions or feedback? Join our community discussion on Discord or GitHub Discussions.
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