Statistical Distributions for Betting
Intermediate
10 min read
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Nov 28, 2025
Key Distributions in Sports Betting
Poisson Distribution
Models count data like goals, runs, touchdowns. Perfect for totals betting.
Normal Distribution
Point spreads and margins often follow normal distributions.
Binomial Distribution
Models success/failure outcomes. Useful for win probability.
Applications
Use distributions to calculate probability of specific scorelines, margins, and totals.
Discussion
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