Expected Stats and Luck Indicators
Intermediate
18 min read
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Nov 25, 2025
Expected Stats and Luck Indicators
Understanding the difference between expected and actual performance helps identify luck and sustainable skill.
Key Topics
- BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play)
- Expected vs actual performance gaps
- Regression to the mean
- Over-performance indicators
- Under-performance and bad luck
- Sustainable skill vs variance
- Sample size considerations
- Predictive vs descriptive statistics
Analysis of expected stats and luck indicators will be added...
Code Examples
Calculate True Shooting %
Calculate True Shooting Percentage - measures overall shooting efficiency
def calculate_true_shooting(points, fga, fta):
"""Calculate True Shooting Percentage
Formula: TS% = PTS / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA))
"""
tsa = 2 * (fga + 0.44 * fta)
if tsa == 0:
return 0
return round((points / tsa) * 100, 1)
# Example: Player with 25 PPG, 18 FGA, 8 FTA
ts = calculate_true_shooting(25, 18, 8)
print(f"TS%: {ts}%") # Elite: >60%, Good: 55-60%Discussion
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