MLB Draft Analytics
Intermediate
10 min read
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Nov 28, 2025
MLB Draft Analytics
The MLB Draft is the primary way teams acquire young talent. Analytics helps evaluate prospects, understand draft slot values, and optimize pick selection.
Key Concepts
- College vs. High School: College players have more data but less upside
- Draft Slot Value: Expected WAR by pick position
- Bust Rate: Probability of producing below replacement value
- Time to Majors: Development timeline by pick position
Draft Value Curve
Historical data shows steep drop-off in expected value after top 10 picks:
| Pick Range | Avg Career WAR | MLB Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | 12.5 | 75% |
| 6-10 | 8.2 | 65% |
| 11-30 | 5.1 | 50% |
| 31-100 | 2.8 | 35% |
Key Takeaways
- Top picks are significantly more valuable
- College pitchers are safer than high school pitchers
- Position player bust rates are lower than pitchers
- Signability affects draft strategy significantly
Discussion
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