Expected Value in Betting

What is Expected Value?

Expected Value (EV) measures the average outcome of a bet over time. Positive EV (+EV) bets are profitable long-term.

The EV Formula

EV = (Probability of Win × Potential Profit) - (Probability of Loss × Stake)

Finding +EV Bets

Compare your estimated probability to the implied probability from odds. If your estimate exceeds the implied probability, the bet has positive EV.

Example

If you believe a team has 55% chance to win but odds imply only 50%, that is a +EV opportunity.