Soccer Betting with Expected Goals

xG-Based Soccer Betting

Expected Goals (xG) measures chance quality. Superior to actual goals for prediction.

Why xG Works

• Goals are high variance, xG is more stable
• xG better predicts future performance
• Markets often react to actual results, not underlying quality

Key Metrics

• xG: Expected goals from shots
• xGA: Expected goals against
• xGD: xG difference (xG - xGA)

Betting Applications

Teams overperforming xG tend to regress. Find value on teams with good xG but poor results.