Betting Exchange (1.95, 3% commission):

Win: 0.52 x ($950 - 0.03 x $950) = 0.52 x $921.50 = $479.18 - Lose: 0.48 x (-$1,000) = -$480.00 - EV = $479.18 - $480.00 = **-$0.82**