Chapter 23 — Further Reading

On inflation measurement

Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI Detailed Report, monthly (bls.gov) The official monthly CPI data with detailed breakdowns by category. Free online.

The Boskin Commission Report, 1996 The report that documented the three CPI biases. Cited in Chapter 4 and worth re-reading after Chapter 23.

Brent Moulton, "The Measurement of Output, Prices, and Productivity," NBER Working Paper, 2018 A comprehensive review of price measurement methodology.

On the 2021–23 inflation

Olivier Blanchard, "In Defense of Concerns over the $1.9 Trillion Relief Plan," Peterson Institute, 2021; Larry Summers, "The Inflation Risk Is Real," Washington Post, February 2021 — Both cited in Chapter 2. The key early warnings.

Veronica De Rugy et al., "Understanding the Recent Increase in Inflation," various Mercatus/Brookings/Hamilton Project papers, 2022–2024 — Multiple careful analyses of the inflation episode from different perspectives.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Supply- and Demand-Driven PCE Inflation, ongoing economic letters — The SF Fed decomposed inflation into supply-driven and demand-driven components. Very useful for understanding the "both" answer to the inflation-cause question.

On hyperinflation

Thomas Sargent, "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," in Rational Expectations and Inflation, 1983 The classic paper on how hyperinflations end. Sargent shows that credible fiscal-monetary reform can end hyperinflation almost overnight.

Steve Hanke and Alex Kwok, "On the Measurement of Zimbabwe's Hyperinflation," Cato Journal, 2009 Careful measurement of Zimbabwe's inflation, including the monthly rate of 79.6 billion percent.

Adam Fergusson, When Money Dies: The Nightmare of Deficit Spending, Devaluation, and Hyperinflation in Weimar Germany, William Kimber, 1975 (reissued 2010) A vivid popular account of the Weimar hyperinflation. Readable and terrifying.

On the costs of inflation

Robert Barro, "Inflation and Economic Growth," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 1995 A cross-country empirical study showing that higher inflation is associated with lower economic growth — particularly above moderate levels.

N. Gregory Mankiw, "The Optimal Rate of Inflation," NBER Working Paper, 2020 A careful analysis of why central banks target 2% and whether a different target would be better.

On deflation

Ben Bernanke, "Deflation: Making Sure 'It' Doesn't Happen Here," Federal Reserve Board speech, November 2002 The speech that earned Bernanke the nickname "Helicopter Ben." Bernanke, then a Fed governor, laid out the case for aggressive monetary policy to prevent deflation. Worth reading for the clarity of the argument.

Paul Krugman, "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1998 Krugman's analysis of Japan's deflationary trap and the zero lower bound problem. Influential and accessible.

A reading order recommendation

If you have time for one source, read Sargent's "The Ends of Four Big Inflations". It's short, clear, and the single best paper on hyperinflation.

If you want the 2021–23 story in depth, read the SF Fed's supply-demand decomposition papers.

If you want the Weimar story vividly, read Fergusson's When Money Dies.

Chapter 24 — Unemployment — is next.