Chapter 29 — Further Reading

On the quantity theory

Milton Friedman, "The Role of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, 1968 — The classic statement that "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."

Irving Fisher, The Purchasing Power of Money, 1911 — The formalization of MV = PY.

On the Phillips curve

A.W. Phillips, "The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, 1958 — The original paper.

Milton Friedman, "The Role of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, 1968 — The argument that the long-run Phillips curve is vertical.

Edmund Phelps, "Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation, and Optimal Unemployment Over Time," Economica, 1967 — Independent, simultaneous discovery of the same result. Nobel Prize 2006.

On the 1970s stagflation (case study 1)

Alan Blinder, Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation, Academic Press, 1979 — A careful analysis of what went wrong in the 1970s.

Robert Barsky and Lutz Kilian, "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004 — A reassessment of the oil-shock narrative.

On QE and the missing inflation (case study 2)

Ben Bernanke, "The New Tools of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, 2020 — The former Chair's assessment of QE.

Gauti Eggertsson and Paul Krugman, "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2012 — On why QE alone didn't cause inflation.

On expectations

Thomas Sargent, "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," 1983 — How credible policy change can rapidly end inflation by changing expectations.

Michael Woodford, Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy, Princeton University Press, 2003 — The modern theoretical framework for expectations-based monetary policy.

PART VI COMPLETE. Part VII — Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policy — begins with Chapter 30: The Business Cycle.