Further Reading: Chapter 19
Books
Trading Systems and Execution
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"Algorithmic Trading and DMA" by Barry Johnson -- The definitive reference on execution quality, order types, and market microstructure. While focused on traditional markets, the execution principles apply directly to prediction markets.
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"Building Winning Algorithmic Trading Systems" by Kevin Davey -- A practical guide from a competition-winning algorithmic trader. Covers the full cycle from idea to live deployment with emphasis on avoiding common pitfalls.
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"Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners" by Larry Harris -- Deep treatment of how markets work at the mechanical level: order books, matching engines, and the behavior of different participant types.
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"Quantitative Trading: How to Build Your Own Algorithmic Trading Business" by Ernest Chan -- Accessible introduction to systematic trading with practical guidance on backtesting, execution, and risk management.
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"The Art of Execution" by Lee Freeman-Shor -- Based on real portfolio manager data, this book examines how execution decisions (when to cut losses, when to add to winners) determine outcomes independent of stock selection skill.
Trading Psychology
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"Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas -- The classic text on trading psychology. Covers the mental framework needed to execute a probabilistic edge consistently despite emotional pressures.
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"The Daily Trading Coach" by Brett Steenbarger -- 101 practical lessons for building psychological resilience in trading. Useful for developing self-awareness about emotional patterns.
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"Thinking in Bets" by Annie Duke -- A former professional poker player applies decision-making frameworks to situations of uncertainty. Directly relevant to prediction market trading where outcomes are probabilistic.
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"Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb -- Essential reading on the human tendency to mistake noise for signal. Critical for maintaining discipline during drawdowns and winning streaks.
Software Engineering for Trading Systems
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"Release It! Design and Deploy Production-Ready Software" by Michael Nygard -- Covers stability patterns (circuit breakers, bulkheads, timeouts) and anti-patterns for production systems. Essential for anyone building systems that manage real capital.
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"Designing Data-Intensive Applications" by Martin Kleppmann -- While broader than trading, this book covers reliability, scalability, and maintainability principles that apply directly to trading infrastructure.
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"Site Reliability Engineering" edited by Betsy Beyer et al. (Google) -- Google's approach to maintaining reliable systems. The chapters on monitoring, alerting, and incident management are directly applicable to trading operations.
Academic Papers
Market Microstructure
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Glosten, L. R., & Milgrom, P. R. (1985). "Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders." Journal of Financial Economics, 14(1), 71-100. Foundational paper on why bid-ask spreads exist and how they relate to information asymmetry.
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Kyle, A. S. (1985). "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading." Econometrica, 53(6), 1315-1335. Seminal model of market impact -- how large orders move prices. Essential for understanding why execution quality matters.
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Almgren, R., & Chriss, N. (2001). "Optimal Execution of Portfolio Transactions." Journal of Risk, 3, 5-39. The foundational paper on optimal order splitting to minimize market impact plus timing risk.
Prediction Markets
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Manski, C. F. (2006). "Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets." Economics Letters, 91(3), 425-429. Discusses when and how prediction market prices can be interpreted as probabilities, relevant to signal generation.
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Berg, J. E., Nelson, F. D., & Rietz, T. A. (2008). "Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run." International Journal of Forecasting, 24(2), 285-300. Long-run analysis of prediction market accuracy, useful for understanding the informational environment you are trading in.
Algorithmic Trading
- Cartea, A., Jaimungal, S., & Penalva, J. (2015). "Algorithmic and High-Frequency Trading." Cambridge University Press. Comprehensive academic treatment of algorithmic trading strategies, execution algorithms, and market making.
Online Resources
Technical References
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Python
asynciodocumentation -- For building asynchronous trading systems that handle multiple data feeds and order streams concurrently. https://docs.python.org/3/library/asyncio.html -
Redis documentation -- Redis is widely used in trading systems for real-time data caching, pub/sub messaging, and rate limiting. https://redis.io/documentation
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Prometheus and Grafana -- The standard open-source stack for monitoring and alerting in production systems. Essential for trading system dashboards. https://prometheus.io/ and https://grafana.com/
API Design and Integration
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"RESTful API Design" by various authors -- Understanding REST API conventions helps you integrate with prediction market platforms more effectively and build better internal APIs for your trading system.
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WebSocket protocol specification (RFC 6455) -- For platforms that offer WebSocket-based data feeds, understanding the protocol helps debug connection issues. https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc6455
Operational Practices
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"The Checklist Manifesto" by Atul Gawande -- While not about trading, this book makes a compelling case for using checklists in high-stakes operations. Directly applicable to trading deployment and daily operations checklists.
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Incident management frameworks (PagerDuty, Opsgenie) -- These tools and their documentation provide best practices for alert management, escalation, and post-incident review that translate well to trading operations.
Prediction Market Platforms
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Polymarket API documentation -- One of the largest prediction market platforms. Understanding its API design provides practical context for the integration patterns discussed in this chapter.
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Kalshi API documentation -- A CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange. Its API represents a more traditional exchange-style interface.
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Metaculus API -- While primarily a forecasting platform rather than a market, Metaculus provides useful APIs for calibration and forecast data.
Community Resources
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Quantitative Finance Stack Exchange (quant.stackexchange.com) -- Active community discussing algorithmic trading, execution, and risk management.
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r/algotrading (Reddit) -- Community of algorithmic traders sharing strategies, code, and operational experiences. Variable quality but valuable for practical insights.
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QuantConnect and Zipline communities -- Open-source backtesting and live trading platforms with active communities. While focused on traditional markets, the infrastructure discussions are directly relevant.
Practice Environments
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Platform sandbox/testnet environments -- Most prediction market platforms offer sandbox environments for testing API integration without risking real capital. Always use these before connecting to production.
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Paper trading with live data -- As discussed in Section 19.10, building a paper trading engine against live market data is the most realistic way to test before going live.