Chapter 1 Exercises: What Is Luck?

Level 1: Recall and Comprehension

1.1 In your own words, define the four types of luck introduced in this chapter: aleatory, epistemic, constitutive, and resultant. Give one example of each that was NOT used in the chapter.

1.2 What is the "luck paradox" as described in the chapter? Why does it matter that we hold both positions simultaneously?

1.3 List three things that luck is NOT, according to the chapter's definitions. For each, explain why the distinction matters.

1.4 What did Richard Wiseman's research find about the difference between self-described "lucky" and "unlucky" people? Name at least four specific behavioral differences.

1.5 According to the chapter's working definition, what three conditions must be present for an outcome to qualify as "luck"?

1.6 Who are the four recurring characters introduced in this chapter? For each, state (a) their demographic background, (b) their relationship to luck, and (c) the central question they're trying to answer.

Level 2: Application

2.1 Classify each of the following as aleatory, epistemic, constitutive, resultant, or some combination, and explain your reasoning:

a) You were born with an unusually high pain tolerance, which lets you train harder than competitors. b) You flip a coin and it lands heads. c) You invest in a company because you "have a feeling" about it, and it triples in value. d) You apply for a job, and the hiring manager happens to have gone to the same college as you, creating a favorable impression. e) You were born in a country with free public education and advanced healthcare. f) You pick a random number between 1 and 10 and someone guesses it correctly.

2.2 Apply the four-type taxonomy to a personal experience. Describe one event in your own life (good or bad) that involved luck, and classify the luck type(s) involved. Did any of the types overlap?

2.3 The chapter distinguishes between "luck is everything" fatalism and "luck is nothing" meritocracy, and argues for a middle position. Formulate the middle position in your own words. What does it mean to hold both positions simultaneously without contradiction?

2.4 Nadia has 847 views on a careful video and 64,000 on a casual one. Using the vocabulary introduced in this chapter, describe which types of luck might be at play. What information would you need to be more precise?

2.5 The chapter says that "the accurate view is both harder to hold and more useful than either extreme." Do you agree that accuracy is harder than the extremes? Why or why not?

Level 3: Analysis

3.1 The chapter argues that "individual luck" and "structural luck" both exist and both matter. Analyze the following case using both concepts: Two students attend the same university, both study equally hard, both have the same IQ, but one has parents who are professors with connections in academia and one doesn't. One gets a prestigious internship; one doesn't. How do you apportion individual luck and structural luck in this outcome?

3.2 The "self-serving attribution bias" is mentioned briefly: we attribute our successes to effort and our failures to bad luck, while attributing others' successes to luck and their failures to effort. Analyze how this bias functions at the social level. What happens to a society's institutions and policies when this bias is widespread?

3.3 Compare and contrast Wiseman's findings (lucky people behave differently) with the claim that luck is genuinely random (aleatory). Are these positions compatible? How?

3.4 The chapter argues that acknowledging structural luck doesn't eliminate personal agency. Develop a counterargument to this position: how might acknowledging structural luck reduce personal agency, at least psychologically? Then evaluate the strength of that counterargument.

3.5 Marcus believes that his chess success was purely earned through skill and preparation. Using the four-type taxonomy, construct the strongest case that luck played a meaningful role in his success — without denying his skill.

Level 4: Synthesis and Evaluation

4.1 The working definition of luck in this chapter requires that the lucky factors "were not the result of deliberate prior action by the agent." This creates a complication: if you deliberately build a large network to increase your chances of catching a lucky break, and then you catch one, is the break lucky or earned? Write a 300–400 word analysis that engages with this question and arrives at a position.

4.2 Design a simple experiment to test whether the behaviors Wiseman identified as "lucky" actually cause more lucky experiences — as opposed to merely correlating with them. What would you measure? What controls would you use? What confounding variables might affect your results?

4.3 Evaluate the chapter's working definition of luck: "An outcome that is significantly shaped by factors outside an agent's control at the moment of relevant action, where the outcome was genuinely uncertain beforehand, and where the lucky or unlucky factors were not the result of deliberate prior action by the agent." Identify at least two cases where this definition gives counterintuitive or uncertain results. Can you propose a modification that handles these cases better?

4.4 The chapter argues that luck is real and that it's unequally distributed. But it also argues that individual action matters and luck can be engineered. Write a 400–500 word argument for how both of these things can be true simultaneously — and explain what the implications are for how we should structure our approach to personal development.

Level 5: Research and Extension

5.1 Richard Wiseman's "lucky people" research (described in the chapter, developed in Chapter 12) has been influential but also questioned. Research the original studies and at least two critiques or follow-up analyses. Write a 500–700 word evaluation: what is strong about Wiseman's evidence, what is weak, and how should we update our confidence in his conclusions?

5.2 Philosopher Thomas Nagel's 1979 essay "Moral Luck" (reprinted in Mortal Questions, Cambridge University Press) is one of the foundational texts in the philosophical study of luck. Read it (it's about 15 pages). Summarize his central argument in 200 words, then evaluate: does Nagel's framework fit the taxonomy introduced in this chapter, or does it require modification?

5.3 Find a recent news story (within the past two years) about someone's success or failure — in business, sports, entertainment, or politics. Apply the four-type luck taxonomy to analyze the story. How much of the outcome can plausibly be attributed to each type of luck? How much to skill and deliberate action? Write a 400–600 word analysis.

5.4 The chapter briefly mentions the global market for luck-related superstitions and objects. Research the psychology of superstition. Why do superstitions persist even among intelligent people who know better? What functions do they serve psychologically? Does superstition ever improve performance? Write a 600–800 word evidence-based response.

5.5 Survey at least fifteen people (mix of ages and backgrounds if possible) using the following questions: (a) Would you describe yourself as a lucky person? (b) What do you think determines whether someone is lucky? (c) Can you name one thing you do specifically to improve your luck? Analyze the results: what types of luck beliefs are most common? Do the responses vary by age or background? What do the answers reveal about how people actually understand luck?