Chapter 5: Exercises — The History of Luck: From Fortune's Wheel to Algorithmic Feeds

These exercises progress from recall and comprehension through analysis, critical thinking, and original research. Questions marked with a star (*) are recommended for group discussion.

Level 1: Recall and Comprehension

1. What are the two main attributes Fortuna carries in classical Roman iconography, and what does each represent? What is the Rota Fortunae?

2. Define the Forer effect (also called the Barnum effect) in your own words. What did Bertram Forer actually do in his 1948 study, and what did he find?

3. Who were the two mathematicians whose correspondence in 1654 is credited with founding probability theory? What problem were they originally trying to solve?

4. What is the qadar in Islamic theology, and what is tawakkul? How does this framework relate to human agency?

5. Michael Young coined the word "meritocracy" in 1958. Was he using it positively or negatively? What was the context of his coinage?

6. Describe the Stoic concept of the "dichotomy of control" as mentioned in the chapter. Who is associated with this concept?

7. Name three mathematical figures — other than Pascal and Fermat — who contributed to the development of probability theory in the 17th and 18th centuries.

8. What is the "problem of points" that Pascal and Fermat were working on? Describe it in your own words.

9. What does the chapter say about why educated people in the 21st century continue to practice superstitions? Give at least three of the five reasons listed.

10. What is the distinction between the normative and descriptive versions of the meritocracy claim? Which does the chapter argue is more contested?

Level 2: Comprehension and Application

11. * Priya reads a horoscope and finds it "uncannily accurate." Walk through how the Forer effect, confirmation bias, and the structure of horoscope language work together to produce this experience. How would Priya's experience differ if she read a horoscope written for a sign that was not hers, without knowing it wasn't hers?

12. Compare the Christian doctrine of providence and the Islamic concept of qadar. Both are frameworks in which a divine being has foreknowledge of all events. What is the key philosophical distinction between them, according to the chapter?

13. * The chapter argues that giving luck "a face" — making it a goddess, a wheel, a divine plan — is a "rational response" to the experience of chance, not a primitive one. Do you agree? What makes this response "rational" by the chapter's logic? What are its limits?

14. Apply the Forer effect to a personality assessment you have taken (Myers-Briggs, Enneagram, love language quiz, etc.). Identify at least three statements in your result that would apply with equal accuracy to someone with the opposite result. What does this exercise reveal about how you originally assessed the accuracy of the tool?

15. Michael Young's dystopian vision involved a society where all people of genuine merit had been identified and elevated. Why, in his analysis, would this produce a worse society rather than a better one? Summarize his argument in your own words.

16. * The chapter says that algorithmic systems function "with some of the same features as Fortuna's Wheel" — they are opaque, distribute rewards with apparent arbitrariness, and govern access to opportunities. Is this comparison fair? What important differences exist between algorithmic systems and genuinely random chance?

Level 3: Analysis and Synthesis

17. Write a two-paragraph analysis of how the karma framework and the Christian providence framework handle the problem of "undeserved suffering" differently. Which framework, in your view, provides the more psychologically satisfying account — and is psychological satisfaction the right standard for evaluating metaphysical frameworks?

18. The Enlightenment development of probability theory "took luck out of the realm of the divine and placed it in the realm of the mathematical." This was an enormous conceptual shift. But the chapter argues the Enlightenment "did not solve" all the problems. What problems remained? Write a structured response identifying at least two.

19. * The chapter presents a tension: superstitious rituals may be causally ineffective but psychologically functional — they may reduce anxiety, build confidence, and improve performance through indirect psychological pathways. Does this mean performing superstitious rituals is rational? Construct an argument for and an argument against, then defend one position.

20. The chapter traces luck conceptualization from Fortuna (luck as agent) to probability theory (luck as mathematics) to the modern algorithmic era (luck as system). In 400 words, describe what has been gained and what has been lost at each transition.

21. Priya's experience with the horoscope is presented not as evidence of irrationality but as an entry point into a serious historical question: "Why do human beings need luck to have a face?" Write a 300-word response to this question that draws on at least three of the cultural frameworks discussed in the chapter.

22. * Research has found that superstitious pre-performance rituals can improve performance in some contexts (the Vyse reference in the chapter). Design a study that would test whether a specific ritual improves exam performance. What would your control condition be? How would you distinguish performance improvement due to superstitious belief from improvement due to other aspects of the ritual (e.g., structured focus, calming repetition)?

Level 4: Evaluation and Critical Thinking

23. The chapter argues that the descriptive claim of meritocracy — "merit does determine outcomes" — is "substantially false." What evidence would you need to evaluate this claim rigorously? What does it mean for a social system to be "meritocratic," and how would you measure the degree to which any actual system approximates that standard?

24. * Evaluate the following argument: "The Forer effect shows that astrology is meaningless. But Carl Jung argued that astrology might function as a projective tool — a mirror in which people see themselves more clearly, not because the celestial movements cause anything, but because the structured reflection is useful. Therefore, the Forer effect doesn't settle the question of astrology's value." Is this argument valid? What philosophical issues does it raise about the difference between causal claims and functional claims?

25. The chapter presents a five-layer explanation of why superstition persists in educated populations. Which of the five layers do you find most explanatorily powerful, and which do you find least convincing? Defend your ranking with at least two reasons per layer you address.

26. * Michael Young's "meritocracy" was meant as a warning. Daniel Markovits's The Meritocracy Trap (2019) and Michael Sandel's The Tyranny of Merit (2020) have made similar arguments in contemporary contexts. Based on what you know from the chapter, construct the strongest possible defense of meritocracy as an ideal — and then identify what you think is the strongest objection to that defense.

Level 5: Research and Creative Challenge

27. The Forer Effect Field Test. With a willing friend, run the following experiment: tell them you have found a personality assessment that you think will describe them accurately, and present them with a paragraph of generic Barnum-style personality statements (you can compose these yourself or find examples online). Have them rate the accuracy on a 1–5 scale, then reveal that the description was not written for them specifically. Write a 400-word reflection on what you observed and what it suggests about the reliability of self-reported "accuracy" in personality assessments.

28. Historical Luck Framework Analysis. Choose one cultural or religious tradition not discussed in depth in the chapter (possibilities: Buddhism and karma; Confucian approaches to fate and human virtue; African traditional religions and luck; Jewish concept of bashert and fate; Japanese concepts of un and luck). Research the tradition's approach to luck, fate, and chance, and write a 600-word analysis comparing it to one of the frameworks discussed in the chapter. Focus on: (a) how unexplained negative events are explained, (b) how human agency is preserved or diminished, and (c) what practical guidance the framework gives for responding to bad luck.

29. The Algorithm as Fortune's Wheel. Write a 500-word creative piece from the perspective of Nadia (or Marcus, or Priya) describing their relationship with an algorithmic system as if it were a Roman god or goddess. Give the algorithm a name, describe its attributes and iconography, describe the rituals people perform to win its favor, and describe what it feels like to be "at the top of the wheel" versus "at the bottom." The goal is not to make fun of algorithmic systems but to illuminate what the historical comparison reveals about human psychology.

30. The Social Mobility Question. Raj Chetty's research on social mobility is referenced in the chapter. Find one of his publicly available research summaries or policy briefs (they are accessible at his Harvard lab website) and identify: (a) one specific data finding about intergenerational mobility in the United States, (b) what that finding implies about the role of luck-at-birth in determining adult outcomes, and (c) what policy response the finding might suggest, if any. Write a one-page reflection connecting the finding to the chapter's argument about constitutive luck and meritocracy.

Answers to selected questions appear in Appendix B: Answers to Selected Exercises.