Chapter 36 Further Reading: The Luck Audit
Foundational Works
Klein, Gary. Seeing What Others Don't: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights (2013) Klein's comprehensive treatment of insight — how it happens, what blocks it, and how to create conditions for it. The pre-mortem is one of his central tools. Klein is one of the most readable decision-science researchers; this book is accessible and engaging without sacrificing rigor. Directly relevant to Case Study 1 and to the luck audit's pre-mortem companion technique.
Wiseman, Richard. The Luck Factor: The Scientific Study of the Lucky Mind (2003) The foundational text for the psychology of luck. Wiseman's decade-long research program identified the behavioral and psychological differences between self-described lucky and unlucky people. The four principles of luck he identifies map directly onto several audit domains. Required reading for anyone serious about luck science. Chapter 12 of this textbook draws heavily on Wiseman's work.
Ericsson, K. Anders, and Robert Pool. Peak: Secrets from the New Science of Expertise (2016) The accessible summary of Ericsson's research program on deliberate practice and expertise. The structured reflection component of deliberate practice — which directly underpins the luck audit as a recurring practice — is treated in depth here. Ericsson and Pool make a compelling case for why structured practice plus structured reflection produces expertise that plain experience does not.
On Structured Reflection and Review Practices
Di Stefano, Giada, et al. "Learning by Thinking: How Reflection Aids Performance." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (2014) The study described in Chapter 36's Research Spotlight. An important empirical contribution establishing that structured reflection produces measurable performance improvements. The paper is available through most university library systems and is worth reading in full.
Pennebaker, James W. Opening Up by Writing It Down (3rd ed., 2016) Pennebaker's research on expressive writing is the foundation for much of the journaling and structured reflection literature. While his original work focused on emotional wellbeing, later research (including work by Ullrich and Lutgendorf cited in Case Study 2) shows that structured, analytical writing (as opposed to pure emotional expression) has significant benefits for planning and decision quality. Relevant to the luck journal practice (Chapter 16) and the annual review.
Kahneman, Daniel. "Thinking That Knows Its Limits." Various interviews and lectures, 2011–present. Kahneman's post-Thinking, Fast and Slow reflections on the limits of self-knowledge are relevant to the luck audit. He is notably skeptical of introspection as a reliable guide to behavioral change, and his skepticism is useful corrective to any tool that asks you to self-assess. The audit is valuable precisely because it asks behavioral questions (what do you do?) rather than dispositional ones (what are you like?).
On Risk Portfolios and Personal Strategy
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (2012) Taleb's framework for robustness under uncertainty includes the barbell strategy (developed at length in Chapter 37) and a broader argument for building systems that benefit from disorder rather than merely surviving it. The Risk Portfolio domain of the luck audit draws directly on Taleb's thinking about optionality and convexity.
Mauboussin, Michael J. The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing (2012) Mauboussin's framework for understanding the skill-luck continuum is one of the most analytically rigorous available. His discussion of feedback loops — how you know whether your results reflect skill or luck — is directly relevant to the luck audit's Risk Portfolio and Resilience domains. The chapter on reversion to the mean in careers is particularly useful.
On Network Architecture
Burt, Ronald S. Structural Holes: The Social Structure of Competition (1992) The academic foundation for the structural holes concept referenced in Chapter 21 and in the Network domain of the luck audit. Burt's research demonstrates that people who bridge disconnected networks receive better information, better opportunities, and faster career advancement. Technical but accessible to careful non-specialist readers.
Cross, Rob, and Andrew Parker. The Hidden Power of Social Networks (2004) A practical guide to organizational network analysis, with tools for mapping and assessing network structure. While written primarily for organizational contexts, the diagnostic frameworks translate directly to individual network audits. The chapter on "peripheral players" — well-connected people who nonetheless have structural problems in their networks — is directly relevant to the Network domain audit.
On Resilience Infrastructure
Bonanno, George A. The Other Side of Sadness: What the New Science of Bereavement Tells Us About Life After Loss (2009) Bonanno's research on resilience changed how psychologists think about recovery from adversity. His key finding — that most people are more resilient than they expect, and that resilience is not a rare trait but a common capacity — is directly relevant to the Recovery and Resilience domain of the luck audit. The book is also a reminder that bad luck is real and that the goal of resilience is not to deny its impact but to recover from it.
Seligman, Martin E. P. Learned Optimism: How to Change Your Mind and Your Life (1990) Seligman's foundational work on explanatory style — the specific dimensions of how people explain good and bad events to themselves — provides the theoretical backbone for the Resilience domain's diagnostic questions about attribution style. "Situational, specific, temporary" versus "global, stable, internal" attribution patterns are directly drawn from this research.
On Environmental Design
Clear, James. Atomic Habits: An Easy and Proven Way to Build Good Habits and Break Bad Ones (2018) While not specifically about luck, Clear's work on environmental design as behavior change infrastructure is directly relevant to the Environmental Design domain of the luck audit. His core insight — that making desired behaviors the default choice by redesigning the environment is more effective than willpower — applies directly to luck-generating behaviors.
Thaler, Richard H., and Cass R. Sunstein. Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness (2008) The "choice architecture" framework — designing environments that make better decisions easier — provides the theoretical foundation for the Environmental Design audit domain. While Thaler and Sunstein focus on public policy applications, the same principles apply to personal environment design.
For Further Academic Research
- Journal of Vocational Behavior — Career self-management and structured reflection (particularly the Hall, Yip, and Doiron 2018 study cited in Case Study 2)
- Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes — Multiple relevant studies on reflection, planning, and decision quality
- Academy of Management Journal — Research on deliberate practice in organizational contexts
- Journal of Applied Psychology — Resilience, recovery from setbacks, and attribution style research
Online and Practical Resources
Annual Review Templates (Various) Several practitioners in the productivity and personal development space have published annual review templates. While most are not luck-focused, they can be adapted using the framework in Case Study 2. Search "annual review template" from practitioners such as Chris Guillebeau (The Art of Non-Conformity) and Michael Hyatt (Your Best Year Ever). Both offer templates that can be augmented with luck audit questions.
YearCompass (yearcompass.com) A free annual review booklet with structured questions for year-end reflection. Not luck-focused, but well-designed for serious reflection. The luck audit's annual review protocol (Case Study 2) can be integrated alongside YearCompass as a supplement.
See also Appendix C (Templates and Worksheets) for the complete luck audit worksheet, the luck pre-mortem template, and the annual luck review protocol.