Chapter 5: Further Reading — The History of Luck: From Fortune's Wheel to Algorithmic Feeds

Primary and Classical Sources

Pascal, B. (1670). Pensées. (Many modern editions available, including a Penguin Classics translation by A.J. Krailsheimer.) Pascal's fragmentary notes toward a defense of Christianity. The "Wager" is in the section titled "The Wager." Readable in the Krailsheimer translation; the mathematical sections are accessible without advanced training.

Young, M. (1958). The Rise of the Meritocracy. (Transaction Publishers, 1994 edition with a new introduction by Young himself.) The original satirical novel. More readable than academic summaries suggest, and the 1994 introduction — where Young reflects on the word's adoption as an aspiration — is essential reading.

Bernoulli, J. (1713). Ars Conjectandi. (Translated by Edith Dudley Sylla, Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006.) The first formal mathematical treatment of probability, including the law of large numbers. The translation includes an excellent historical introduction. Technical in parts but the historical framing makes it accessible.

Books on the History of Probability and Chance

David, F. N. (1962). Games, Gods and Gambling: The Origins and History of Probability and Statistical Ideas from the Earliest Times to the Newtonian Era. Hafner. The standard scholarly history of early probability theory. Covers the Pascal-Fermat correspondence in detail, with mathematical exposition. More technical than most items on this list but authoritative.

Hacking, I. (1975). The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas About Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference. Cambridge University Press. A philosophical history of how probability thinking emerged in the 17th century. Ian Hacking argues that there was a genuine conceptual prerequisite for probability — a way of thinking about signs and evidence — that had to develop before the mathematics was possible. Influential and readable for philosophy students.

Hald, A. (1990). A History of Probability and Statistics and Their Applications Before 1750. Wiley. Comprehensive mathematical history. Best for readers with calculus backgrounds who want the full mathematical treatment alongside the historical narrative.

Stigler, S. M. (1986). The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty Before 1900. Harvard University Press. Covers the development of statistics from probability theory through the late 19th century. Excellent on Laplace, Gauss, and the development of the normal distribution. Accessible to readers with some mathematical background.

Books on Meritocracy, Social Mobility, and Luck in Society

Young, M. (1958/1994). The Rise of the Meritocracy. Cited above — but worth listing again because it is so central.

Frank, R. H. (2016). Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy. Princeton University Press. Robert Frank's concise and readable argument that luck plays a much larger role in success than high achievers acknowledge, and that this denial has political consequences. Highly recommended — short (200 pages), clearly argued, and directly relevant to this chapter's themes.

Markovits, D. (2019). The Meritocracy Trap: How America's Foundational Myth Feeds Inequality, Dismantles the Middle Class, and Devours the Elite. Penguin Press. Yale law professor Daniel Markovits's argument that meritocracy is not only failing to reduce inequality but is actively producing new forms of hereditary stratification through credential accumulation. Challenging and important.

Sandel, M. J. (2020). The Tyranny of Merit: What's Become of the Common Good? Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Harvard philosopher Michael Sandel's critique of meritocracy from a civic and communitarian perspective. Focuses on the hubris that meritocracy produces in winners and the humiliation it produces in losers. Readable and forcefully argued.

Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. Simon & Schuster. Robert Putnam's research-grounded account of the growing gap in opportunity between wealthy and poor children in the United States. Detailed, data-rich, and humane.

Chetty, R., et al. Multiple publicly available research papers and policy briefs from the Opportunity Insights project (opportunityinsights.org). Raj Chetty's team has produced some of the most important empirical research on intergenerational mobility and the geography of opportunity. The accessible policy briefs and data visualizations on the project website are free and highly recommended.

Books on Ancient and Religious Frameworks for Luck

Chamberlin, E. R. (1966). Everyday Life in Renaissance Times. Batsford. Provides social context for luck beliefs and Fortuna worship in the Renaissance period, complementing the ancient material in the chapter.

Burkert, W. (1985). Greek Religion. Harvard University Press. The standard scholarly account of Greek religion, including treatment of Tyche and the role of chance and fate in Greek religious thought. Dense but authoritative.

Stewart, Z. (Ed.) (1975). Arthur Darby Nock: Essays on Religion and the Ancient World. Harvard University Press. Contains relevant essays on Fortuna, Tyche, and the relationship between luck, fate, and providence in ancient Mediterranean religion.

Kenny, A. (2006). A New History of Western Philosophy, Vol. 1: Ancient Philosophy. Oxford University Press. Excellent treatment of Stoic philosophy, including the dichotomy of control and the Stoic response to luck and fate. Accessible and comprehensive.

On the Forer Effect and Astrology

Vyse, S. A. (1997). Believing in Magic: The Psychology of Superstition. Oxford University Press. The most accessible and comprehensive psychological treatment of superstition, including the Forer effect, astrology, lucky charms, and ritual behavior. Balanced, scientifically rigorous, and non-condescending. Highly recommended.

Dean, G., & Kelly, I. W. (2003). "Is Astrology Relevant to Consciousness and Psi?" Journal of Consciousness Studies, 10(6–7), 175–198. A detailed scientific review of empirical research on astrological claims. Accessible to non-specialists and provides a comprehensive summary of what the research shows.

Forer, B. R. (1949). "The Fallacy of Personal Validation: A Classroom Demonstration of Gullibility." Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 44(1), 118–123. The original Forer study. Short and accessible. A classic of social psychology that takes five minutes to read and is genuinely illuminating.

On Algorithmic Systems and Opportunity

O'Neil, C. (2016). Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy. Crown Publishers. Data scientist Cathy O'Neil's argument that algorithmic systems — used in hiring, credit scoring, criminal justice, education, and elsewhere — encode and amplify existing inequalities rather than producing neutral meritocratic selection. Essential for understanding the 21st-century version of "algorithmic luck."

Pasquale, F. (2015). The Black Box Society: The Secret Algorithms That Control Money and Information. Harvard University Press. A legal scholar's account of algorithmic opacity and its implications for power and accountability. More technical but important for understanding the governance questions around algorithmic luck distribution.

On Pascal's Wager and Decision Theory

Rescher, N. (1985). Pascal's Wager: A Study of Practical Reasoning in Philosophical Theology. University of Notre Dame Press. The most comprehensive philosophical treatment of Pascal's Wager and its reception. Covers the mathematical argument and all the major philosophical objections.

Jeffrey, R. C. (1983). The Logic of Decision (2nd ed.). University of Chicago Press. The foundational text on modern decision theory — the mathematical framework for choosing under uncertainty that descends from Pascal and Fermat's expected value work. Technical but influential.

Note: For further exploration of how probability theory developed into modern statistics and its applications, Chapter 6 and Part 2 (Chapters 6–11) of this textbook provide a comprehensive grounding in probabilistic thinking from the reader's own perspective.