Further Reading: Unfalsifiable by Design

Popper and Falsifiability

Popper, K. (1959/2002). The Logic of Scientific Discovery. Routledge. The original and still essential treatment of falsifiability. Dense philosophical argument but the core chapters are accessible. (Tier 1)

Popper, K. (1963). Conjectures and Refutations. Routledge. More accessible than Logic of Scientific Discovery, with extended discussions of what distinguishes science from pseudoscience. The Adler and Einstein comparison referenced in this chapter appears here. (Tier 1)

Lakatos, I. (1978). The Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes. Cambridge University Press. The most important refinement of Popper's criterion. Lakatos introduces the progressive/degenerating distinction that this chapter relies on. Essential for understanding the limits of simple falsifiability. (Tier 1)

The String Theory Debate

Smolin, L. (2006). The Trouble with Physics. Houghton Mifflin. A prominent physicist's argument that string theory has become a degenerating programme. Accessible to non-physicists and deeply relevant to this chapter. (Tier 1)

Woit, P. (2006). Not Even Wrong. Basic Books. A mathematician's critique of string theory, focused on the unfalsifiability problem. The title references Pauli's dismissal of theories that are so vague they can't even be wrong. (Tier 1)

Freudian Psychoanalysis and Science

Crews, F. (2017). Freud: The Making of an Illusion. Metropolitan Books. The most thorough critical assessment of Freud's work, documenting how the theoretical framework was constructed to resist disconfirmation. (Tier 1)

Grünbaum, A. (1984). The Foundations of Psychoanalysis: A Philosophical Critique. University of California Press. A rigorous philosophical analysis of psychoanalysis's claims to scientific status. More sympathetic than Crews but equally rigorous. (Tier 1)

Forensic Science

National Research Council (2009). Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward. National Academies Press. The landmark report that exposed the scientific deficiencies of most forensic disciplines. Free online. (Tier 1)

Economics and Prediction

Tetlock, P. E. (2005). Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?. Princeton University Press. Demonstrates that expert predictions in political and economic domains are barely better than chance. Essential context for the economics case study. (Tier 1)

Romer, P. (2016). "The Trouble with Macroeconomics." An internal critique by a Nobel laureate arguing that macroeconomics has become disconnected from empirical testing. Provocative and relevant. (Tier 1)

For Instructors

The Freud/Einstein comparison makes an excellent classroom demonstration. Present Adler's case (section 3.1) and Einstein's light-bending prediction, and ask students: what's the structural difference? The ensuing discussion naturally leads to the falsifiability criterion.