Exercises: Field Autopsy — Economics

Part A: Comprehension and Application

A.1. Define "mathiness" in your own words. How does it relate to precision without accuracy (Chapter 12)? Give one example from economics and one from another field.

A.2. Explain why the Efficient Market Hypothesis was difficult to falsify in practice. Which specific features of its formulation (weak, semi-strong, strong forms) enabled this?

A.3. The chapter identifies three areas where economics has genuinely self-corrected: behavioral economics, the credibility revolution, and mechanism design. For each, explain what enabled the correction to succeed using the Correction Speed Model variables.

A.4. Why did the 2008 crisis produce regulatory reform but not theoretical reform? Use the Correction Speed Model to explain the gap between the two types of correction.

A.5. Compare the medicine-economics table in section 24.6.5. Which difference between the two fields do you find most significant for explaining their different correction speeds? Why?

Part B: Analysis

B.1. The chapter argues that economics' heterodox economists followed the outsider pattern from Chapter 18. Choose one heterodox economist (Minsky, the post-Keynesians, or the complexity economists) and trace their experience through the outsider framework: What evidence did they present? How was it received? What institutional mechanisms marginalized them? Were they vindicated?

B.2. Apply the "physics envy" analysis to another social science (political science, sociology, education, or management). Has the field imported its methodology from a more prestigious field? If so, does the imported methodology fit, or has it produced failure modes similar to economics?

B.3. The chapter notes that economics' correction mechanisms are weaker than medicine's. Design three specific institutional reforms that would strengthen economics' correction capacity. For each, identify which Correction Speed Model variable it targets and what resistance it would face.

B.4. The disconnect between micro and macroeconomics is described as one of the field's deepest structural problems. Analyze this disconnect using concepts from at least three chapters (e.g., sunk cost, consensus enforcement, Einstellung effect).

Part C: Synthesis and Evaluation

C.1. Is economics a science? Using the frameworks from this book — particularly the falsifiability analysis from Chapter 3 and the evidence evaluation from this chapter — make the strongest case you can for and against economics' claim to scientific status. Which argument is stronger?

C.2. The chapter proposes systematic evaluation of economic forecasts against outcomes as an acceleration lever. Design this institutional mechanism in detail: What would be measured? Who would do the evaluation? How would results be used? What resistance would you expect?

C.3. Compare the economics autopsy to the medicine autopsy (Chapter 23). Which field has more severe failure modes? Which field has better correction mechanisms? Which field should a policymaker trust more? Justify each answer.

Part D: Mixed Practice (Interleaved)

D.1. A government is considering an economic policy based on a mathematical model. Using the failure mode framework, design a "red flag checklist" (inspired by Chapter 31) specifically for evaluating economic policy recommendations. Include at least 8 questions.

D.2. A young economist has evidence that contradicts a mainstream model. Using this chapter AND Chapter 18 (outsider problem) AND Chapter 33 (how to disagree productively), design a strategy for the young economist to present their findings with the best chance of being heard.

Part E: Deep Dive Extensions

E.1. Read Paul Romer's "The Trouble with Macroeconomics" (2016). Write a 500-word analysis of Romer's critique using the failure mode framework from this book. Which failure modes does Romer identify? Which ones does he miss?

E.2. Research the "credibility revolution" in economics (Angrist, Imbens, Card). Evaluate whether it represents genuine correction or cosmetic correction using the markers from Chapter 19.