Further Reading: Introduction to College Football Analytics

Essential Reading

Books

The Hidden Game of Football by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn (1988) One of the earliest comprehensive attempts to apply statistical analysis to football. While dated, it established foundational thinking that influenced modern analytics.

Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game by Michael Lewis (2003) The book that brought sports analytics into mainstream consciousness. Though focused on baseball, its lessons about finding market inefficiencies apply broadly.

Mathletics: How Gamblers, Managers, and Sports Enthusiasts Use Mathematics in Baseball, Basketball, and Football by Wayne Winston (2009) Academic but accessible introduction to sports analytics across multiple sports. Good coverage of football-specific topics.

The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin (2007) While baseball-focused, this book demonstrates rigorous analytical thinking that transfers to football analytics.

Academic Papers

"Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football" by David Romer (2006) Journal of Political Economy The foundational academic paper on fourth-down decision-making. Romer showed that NFL teams systematically punt too often, leaving wins on the table. Required reading for understanding the fourth-down revolution. [Available through academic databases]

"Improved NFL Point Spread Forecasts Using Statistical Learning" by Michael Lopez and Gregory Matthews (2015) Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Demonstrates how modern statistical learning approaches can improve football prediction.

"What You Thought You Knew About Football Is Wrong" by Brian Burke (2008) Published at Advanced NFL Analytics An accessible introduction to expected points and other advanced concepts.

Websites and Blogs

Football Outsiders (footballoutsiders.com) One of the pioneering football analytics sites. Created DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), one of the most influential football metrics. Extensive archives of analytical articles.

ESPN Analytics (espn.com) ESPN has increasingly integrated analytics into coverage. Their "Stats & Info" section provides accessible advanced statistics.

The Athletic (theathletic.com) Subscription required, but contains some of the best analytical football journalism. Writers like Seth Walder and Ted Nguyen regularly publish data-driven analysis.

Open Source Football (opensourcefootball.com) Community-driven site with accessible tutorials on football analytics methods. Great for learning practical implementation.

Fantasy Football Analytics (fantasyfootballanalytics.net) While fantasy-focused, contains solid methodological content that applies to general football analysis.

Tools and Data Sources

nflfastR Documentation (nflfastr.com) The package that revolutionized public access to NFL play-by-play data and expected points calculations. While NFL-focused, the methodology influences college football analysis.

College Football Data API (collegefootballdata.com) The primary free data source for college football analytics. Covered extensively in Chapter 2.

cfbfastR (cfbfastR.sportsdataverse.org) R package for accessing college football data. The college equivalent of nflfastR.

Pro Football Reference (pro-football-reference.com) Sports Reference College Football (sports-reference.com/cfb) Comprehensive historical statistics. Essential reference resources.

Video and Podcasts

Thinking Basketball YouTube Channel While basketball-focused, Ben Taylor's approach to thinking about sports analytically is transferable. Excellent model for combining data with film.

PFF NFL Podcast Pro Football Focus's podcast discusses advanced metrics and methodology. Useful for understanding how professional analytics is applied.

The Fantasy Footballers Fantasy-focused but regularly discusses analytical concepts accessible to general audiences.

Analytics Vidhya Sports Analytics Webinars Periodic webinars covering sports analytics topics. Check their archive for football-relevant sessions.

Historical Context

"Virgil Carter: The Grandfather of Football Analytics" - Various sources Articles about Virgil Carter's pioneering work with Robert Machol in the 1970s on optimal football decision-making.

"The Evolution of the NFL Passer Rating" - Pro Football Reference History of how the traditional passer rating was developed and its limitations.

Interviews with Keith Goldner - Various podcasts Goldner's work on expected points and other advanced metrics is foundational to modern public analytics.

College Football Specific

Bill Connelly's Work (ESPN/SB Nation) Connelly created SP+, one of the most respected college football rating systems. His archives at SB Nation and current work at ESPN are essential for understanding college football analytics.

Football Study Hall (footballstudyhall.com) Now part of SB Nation. Archives contain extensive college football analytics content.

247Sports Composite Methodology Understanding how recruiting rankings are created. Important for recruiting analytics covered later in this textbook.

Courses and Programs

MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Annual conference featuring cutting-edge sports analytics research. Papers and presentations archived online.

Coursera: Sports Analytics Courses Several universities offer sports analytics courses online. Check offerings from Michigan, Rice, and others.

DataCamp: Python/R for Sports Analytics Programming courses with sports examples. Good for building technical skills.

Communities

r/CFBAnalysis (Reddit) Active community discussing college football analytics. Good for questions and discussion.

Sports Analytics Twitter/X Following analysts like @benbbaldwin, @maborprates, @naborvitz, and others provides real-time analytical discussion.

Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Slack Community Slack for sports analytics professionals and enthusiasts.

Note on Sources

Sports analytics evolves rapidly. Some sources listed may have changed, moved, or become outdated since publication. When links don't work: - Search for the author's current work - Check the Wayback Machine (archive.org) for archived versions - Look for updated versions of methodologies

The field's open culture means most important work remains accessible through search.