Chapter 10: Key Takeaways
Quick Reference Guide
Field Goal Analytics
Make Probability by Distance (College Averages):
| Distance | Make % | Classification |
|---|---|---|
| <25 yards | 96% | Automatic |
| 25-29 yards | 93% | High probability |
| 30-34 yards | 87% | Reliable |
| 35-39 yards | 82% | Standard |
| 40-44 yards | 71% | Challenging |
| 45-49 yards | 59% | Difficult |
| 50+ yards | 45% | Low probability |
Field Goal Distance Formula:
FG Distance = Line of Scrimmage + 17 yards
(10-yard end zone + 7-yard snap)
Key Adjustments: - Wind (15+ mph): -10% to -15% accuracy - Rain: -5% accuracy - Cold (<35°F): -3% to -5% accuracy - Artificial turf: +2% accuracy - Dome: +5% overall
Expected Points Calculation:
EP(FG attempt) = P(make) × 3.0 + P(miss) × EP(opponent position after miss)
Punting Analytics
Key Metrics:
| Metric | Elite | Good | Average | Below Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Avg | 46+ | 44-45 | 42-43 | <42 |
| Net Avg | 42+ | 40-41 | 38-39 | <38 |
| Hang Time | 4.5+ | 4.3-4.4 | 4.1-4.2 | <4.1 |
| Inside 20% | 35%+ | 28-34% | 20-27% | <20% |
| TB Rate | <5% | 5-8% | 8-12% | >12% |
Formulas:
Gross Average = Total Punt Yards / Total Punts
Net Average = (Total Punt Yards - Return Yards) / Total Punts
Inside 20 Rate = Punts Inside 20 / Total Punts
Punt Value Hierarchy: 1. Downed inside 10-yard line: Maximum value 2. Downed inside 20-yard line: High value 3. Fair catch at/inside 20: Good value 4. Returned with limited gain: Acceptable 5. Touchback: Negative value (25-yard line)
Kickoff Analytics
Expected Starting Position Components:
ESP = Σ (P(outcome) × Starting Position)
Outcome Values: - Touchback: 25-yard line - Average return: ~23-yard line - Out of bounds penalty: 35-yard line - Kick return TD: 0 (opponent scores)
Touchback Analysis: - Modern college football favors touchbacks - Touchback vs return break-even: ~22 yard line - Elite coverage units can justify kicking returnable kicks
Directional Kicking Value: - Reduces elite returner impact - Trades distance for field position certainty - Best against specific return threats
Fourth Down Decision Framework
The Three Options: 1. Go for it: High variance, potentially highest EP 2. Field goal: Medium variance, capped upside (3 pts) 3. Punt: Low variance, concedes possession
Break-Even Conversion Probability:
P(break-even) = (EP(punt) - EP(failure)) / (EP(success) - EP(failure))
General Guidelines (Opponent's Territory):
| Field Position | 4th & 1 | 4th & 2 | 4th & 3 | 4th & 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside 5 | GO | GO | GO | GO/FG |
| 6-20 | GO | GO | FG | FG |
| 21-35 | GO | GO | GO | GO/FG |
| 36-50 | GO | GO | GO | PUNT |
Context Adjustments: - Trailing late: More aggressive - Leading late: Consider game state - Elite offense: More aggressive - Poor defense: More aggressive - Weather impact: Adjust probabilities
Fourth Down Conversion Estimates:
| Distance | Conversion % |
|---|---|
| 4th & 1 | 68-72% |
| 4th & 2 | 58-62% |
| 4th & 3 | 50-55% |
| 4th & 4 | 44-48% |
| 4th & 5 | 38-42% |
Coverage Unit Evaluation
Punt Coverage Benchmarks:
| Metric | Elite | Good | Average | Poor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return Avg Allowed | <5.5 | 5.5-7.0 | 7.0-9.0 | >9.0 |
| Tackles Inside 25 | 40%+ | 30-39% | 20-29% | <20% |
| Broken Tackle Rate | <10% | 10-15% | 15-20% | >20% |
Kickoff Coverage Benchmarks:
| Metric | Elite | Good | Average | Poor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return Avg Allowed | <20 | 20-22 | 22-25 | >25 |
| TD Allowed | 0 | 0-1 | 1-2 | >2 |
| Tackle Rate | 95%+ | 90-94% | 85-89% | <85% |
Return Unit Evaluation
Punt Return Benchmarks:
| Metric | Elite | Good | Average | Poor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return Average | 12+ | 9-11 | 6-8 | <6 |
| Explosive Rate (20+) | 15%+ | 10-14% | 5-9% | <5% |
| Muff Rate | <1% | 1-2% | 2-3% | >3% |
Kick Return Benchmarks:
| Metric | Elite | Good | Average | Poor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return Average | 26+ | 24-25 | 22-23 | <22 |
| TD Rate | 3%+ | 1-2% | 0.5-1% | 0% |
| Starting Position | 28+ | 26-27 | 24-25 | <24 |
Special Teams Points Value
Estimated Point Values:
| Play Type | EPA Range |
|---|---|
| Made FG (any) | +2.5 to +3.5 |
| Missed FG | -1.5 to -3.0 |
| Blocked FG | -3.0 to -5.0 |
| Punt inside 10 | +1.0 to +2.0 |
| Punt inside 20 | +0.5 to +1.0 |
| Punt touchback | -0.5 to -1.0 |
| Blocked punt | -3.0 to -6.0 |
| KO touchback | 0 (baseline) |
| KO return TD | -7.0 |
| Punt return TD | -7.0 |
Season Impact: - Elite special teams: +1.5 to +2.0 wins/season - Average special teams: Neutral - Poor special teams: -1.0 to -1.5 wins/season
Comprehensive Rating System
Component Weights:
Total ST Rating =
(FG Rating × 0.20) +
(Punting Rating × 0.20) +
(Kickoff Rating × 0.15) +
(Punt Return Rating × 0.15) +
(Kick Return Rating × 0.15) +
(Coverage Rating × 0.15)
Rating Scale: - 90-100: Elite (Top 10%) - 80-89: Excellent (Top 25%) - 70-79: Good (Above Average) - 60-69: Average - 50-59: Below Average - <50: Poor
Decision Checklists
Field Goal Decision: - [ ] Calculate distance (LOS + 17) - [ ] Check kicker's range accuracy - [ ] Assess weather/conditions - [ ] Compare EP to going for it - [ ] Consider game state (score, time)
Punt Decision: - [ ] Current field position - [ ] Expected net punt yards - [ ] Opponent's starting position EP - [ ] Compare to going for it EP - [ ] Consider time and score
Fourth Down Decision: - [ ] Calculate conversion probability - [ ] Determine EP for success - [ ] Determine EP for failure - [ ] Calculate EP for alternatives (FG/punt) - [ ] Choose highest EP option - [ ] Adjust for game context
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Using raw FG percentage without distance adjustment
- Ignoring net punting for gross average
- Overvaluing touchbacks vs smart directional kicking
- Being too conservative on fourth downs
- Ignoring weather adjustments for all kicking metrics
- Evaluating returns without context of kick quality
- Making decisions based on outcome rather than process
Key Formulas Summary
# Field Goal Expected Points
EP_FG = P(make) * 3 + P(miss) * EP(opp_position)
# Punt Value
Punt_Value = EP(own_position) - EP(opp_position_after_punt)
# Fourth Down Go Decision
EP_go = P(convert) * EP(new_position) + P(fail) * EP(opponent_position)
# Net Punting Average
Net_Avg = (Gross_Yards - Return_Yards) / Punts
# Expected Starting Position
ESP = Σ (frequency_i * starting_position_i)
# Field Goals Over Expected
FGOE = Actual_Makes - Expected_Makes
Quick Decision Rules
Almost Always Go For It: - 4th & 1 anywhere in opponent's territory - 4th & 2 at opponent's 30-50 - 4th & goal from inside the 3
Almost Always Kick FG: - 4th & 6+ at opponent's 15-25 (32-42 yard FG) - 4th & 4+ at opponent's 1-10 (under 30 yard FG) - Final seconds when FG wins/ties
Almost Always Punt: - 4th & 7+ from own territory - 4th & 10+ from anywhere except desperate situations - Leading late with chance to pin deep