Key Takeaways: Rushing and Running Game Analysis

Quick Reference Card

Success Rate Thresholds

Elite Success Rate: 48%+ Average Success Rate: 42-47% Below Average: <42%

Yards After Contact (YAC)

YAC = Total Yards - Yards Before Contact
YAC per Carry = Total YAC / Total Carries
YAC Share = (YAC / Total Yards) × 100

Benchmarks: | Rating | YAC/Carry | |--------|-----------| | Elite | 2.5+ | | Good | 2.0-2.4 | | Average | 1.5-1.9 | | Below Avg | <1.5 |

Broken Tackles

BT per Carry = Total Broken Tackles / Total Carries

Benchmarks: | Rating | BT/Carry | |--------|----------| | Elite | 0.22+ | | Good | 0.17-0.21 | | Average | 0.12-0.16 | | Below Avg | <0.12 |

Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE)

RYOE = Actual Yards - Expected Yards
RYOE per Carry = Total RYOE / Total Carries

Simplified Expected Model:

Expected = 4.0 - 0.3 × (Defenders in Box - 7)

Benchmarks: | Rating | RYOE/Carry | |--------|------------| | Elite | +0.8+ | | Good | +0.3 to +0.7 | | Average | -0.2 to +0.2 | | Below Avg | <-0.2 |

Stuff Rate

Stuff Rate = (Carries ≤ 0 yards / Total Carries) × 100

Benchmarks: | Rating | Stuff Rate | |--------|------------| | Elite | <15% | | Good | 15-18% | | Average | 19-22% | | Poor | >22% |

Explosive Run Rate

Explosive Rate = (Carries ≥ 10 yards / Total Carries) × 100
Big Play Rate = (Carries ≥ 20 yards / Total Carries) × 100

Benchmarks: | Rating | 10+ Yard Rate | |--------|---------------| | Elite | 15%+ | | Good | 12-14% | | Average | 9-11% | | Below Avg | <9% |

Run Blocking Metrics

Line Yards (capped at 4 yards per carry):

Line Yards = Σ min(YBC, 4) for each carry
Avg Line Yards = Line Yards / Total Carries

Opportunity Rate (4+ YBC):

Opportunity Rate = (Carries with 4+ YBC / Total Carries) × 100

Benchmarks: | Metric | Elite | Average | Poor | |--------|-------|---------|------| | Avg Line Yards | 2.8+ | 2.2-2.7 | <2.2 | | Opportunity Rate | 35%+ | 25-34% | <25% |

Situational Analysis

Short Yardage (3rd/4th and 2 or less): | Rating | Conversion Rate | |--------|-----------------| | Elite | 75%+ | | Good | 65-74% | | Average | 55-64% | | Poor | <55% |

Goal Line (Inside the 5): | Rating | TD Rate | |--------|---------| | Elite | 60%+ | | Good | 50-59% | | Average | 40-49% | | Poor | <40% |

Essential Formulas

1. Success Rate

def is_successful(down, distance, yards_gained):
    if down == 1:
        return yards_gained >= distance * 0.40
    elif down == 2:
        return yards_gained >= distance * 0.50
    else:  # 3rd or 4th
        return yards_gained >= distance

2. YAC Calculation

def calculate_yac_metrics(carries):
    total_yac = sum(c['yards'] - c['ybc'] for c in carries)
    avg_yac = total_yac / len(carries)
    yac_share = total_yac / sum(c['yards'] for c in carries) * 100
    return {'avg_yac': avg_yac, 'yac_share': yac_share}

3. RYOE Calculation

def calculate_ryoe(carries):
    total_ryoe = 0
    for carry in carries:
        expected = 4.0 - 0.3 * (carry['box_count'] - 7)
        total_ryoe += carry['yards'] - expected
    return total_ryoe / len(carries)

4. Composite RB Score

def rb_composite_score(metrics):
    yac_score = min(100, metrics['avg_yac'] / 3.0 * 100)
    ryoe_score = min(100, max(0, (metrics['ryoe'] + 1) / 2 * 100))
    success_score = min(100, metrics['success_rate'] / 55 * 100)
    explosive_score = min(100, metrics['explosive_rate'] / 18 * 100)

    composite = (
        yac_score * 0.30 +
        ryoe_score * 0.25 +
        success_score * 0.25 +
        explosive_score * 0.20
    )
    return composite

Key Concepts Summary

What Each Metric Measures

Attribution Framework

Run Gap Analysis

Common Pitfalls to Avoid

1. Over-relying on YPC - Doesn't account for blocking or situation
2. Ignoring sample size - Need 100+ carries for stable metrics
3. Treating all yards equally - 3rd down conversion > 1st down yards
4. Forgetting context - Box count, game script matter
5. Conflating backs and blocking - Separate with YBC/YAC split

Decision Framework

Evaluating a Running Back

1. Check YAC - Is he creating yards after contact?
2. Check RYOE - Does he beat expectation?
3. Check Success Rate - Is he consistent?
4. Check Situational - Reliable in critical moments?
5. Check Durability - Efficiency across volume?

Diagnosing Run Game Problems

1. Low YBC, Normal YAC → Blocking issue
2. Normal YBC, Low YAC → Back skill issue
3. High Box Count → Scheme predictability
4. High Stuff Rate → Personnel or blocking
5. Low Explosive Rate → Play design or back speed

Quick Evaluation Template

RUNNING BACK EVALUATION: [Name]
==============================
Volume: ___ carries, ___ yards
YPC: ___  (League avg: 4.3)
Success Rate: ___%  (Elite: 48%+)
YAC/Carry: ___  (Elite: 2.5+)
BT/Carry: ___  (Elite: 0.22+)
RYOE/Carry: ___  (Elite: +0.8+)
Explosive Rate: ___%  (Elite: 15%+)
Short Yardage: ___%  (Elite: 75%+)

OVERALL GRADE: ___/100
PRIMARY STRENGTH: ___
PRIMARY CONCERN: ___

Chapter 8 Summary

1. Success Rate measures consistency by down and distance
2. Yards After Contact isolates running back skill
3. RYOE adjusts for blocking and defensive alignment
4. Situational analysis reveals reliability in key moments
5. Attribution separates blocking, scheme, and back skill
6. Composite scoring combines multiple dimensions for evaluation