Further Reading: Advanced Passing Metrics

Foundational Research

Academic Papers

  1. "Expected Points and Win Probability" by Burke et al. - Foundation for EPA models - Methodology for estimating play value - Key reading for understanding EPA

  2. "Passing Efficiency in the NFL" by Winston - Statistical analysis of passing metrics - Comparison of traditional vs. advanced stats - Predictive validity research

  3. "Completion Probability in the NFL" by Yurko et al. - Methodology for building CP models - Feature importance analysis - Model calibration techniques

  4. "Air Yards and Pass Efficiency" by Eager - Introduction of air yards metrics - Relationship between depth and efficiency - Fantasy football applications

Key Blog Posts

  1. "What is CPOE?" by Ben Baldwin - Clear explanation of completion percentage over expected - How to calculate and interpret CPOE - [nflfastR documentation]

  2. "Introduction to EPA" by Open Source Football - Step-by-step EPA explanation - Code examples for calculation - Visualization techniques

  3. "The Problem with Passer Rating" by Football Outsiders - Limitations of traditional metrics - Why DVOA/EPA are superior - Historical context

Books

Essential Reading

  1. "The Hidden Game of Football" by Bob Carroll et al. - Pioneering sports analytics work - Foundation of many advanced concepts - Historical perspective

  2. "Football Analytics with Python and R" by Eric Eager - Practical implementation guides - Code examples for all major metrics - NFL and college applications

  3. "Mathletics" by Wayne Winston - Football analytics chapter - Mathematical foundations - Decision-making frameworks

Supplementary

  1. "The Expected Points Model" (Chapter in various analytics books) - Technical deep-dive - Model building methodology - Validation approaches

  2. "Pro Football Prospectus" (Annual) - DVOA methodology explanation - Team and player analysis - Practical application examples

Online Resources

Data Sources

  1. nflfastR (R Package) - https://www.nflfastr.com/ - Play-by-play data with EPA - Pre-calculated advanced metrics - Excellent documentation

  2. nfl_data_py (Python Package) - Python interface to nflfastR data - Includes EPA, WPA, CPOE - Easy integration with pandas

  3. cfbfastR (College Football) - https://cfbfastr.sportsdataverse.org/ - College football play-by-play - EPA calculations included - Recruiting and draft data

  4. Pro Football Reference - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ - Advanced passing stats section - Historical data - Air yards metrics

Tutorials

  1. Introduction to nflfastR - Step-by-step data loading - Basic EPA analysis - Visualization examples

  2. Building Completion Probability Models - Feature engineering guide - Model training walkthrough - Evaluation metrics

  3. QB Evaluation Framework - Combining multiple metrics - Weighting schemes - Practical applications

Tools and Libraries

Python

# Essential packages for advanced passing metrics
pip install pandas numpy scipy scikit-learn
pip install nfl_data_py  # NFL data with EPA/CPOE
pip install matplotlib seaborn plotly  # Visualization

R

# Essential R packages
install.packages("nflfastR")
install.packages("cfbfastR")
install.packages("ggplot2")
install.packages("tidyverse")

Visualization Tools

  1. Matplotlib/Seaborn - Standard Python plotting
  2. Plotly - Interactive visualizations
  3. ggplot2 - R visualization (grammar of graphics)
  4. Tableau Public - Dashboard creation

Key Practitioners to Follow

Analytics Writers

  1. Ben Baldwin (@benbbaldwin) - nflfastR creator - EPA and WPA explainers - Weekly analysis threads

  2. Seth Walder (ESPN) - NFL analytics coverage - QBR methodology insights - Draft analytics

  3. Josh Hermsmeyer (538/PFF) - Air yards analysis pioneer - Completion probability research - CPOE applications

  4. Bill Connelly - College football analytics - SP+ rating system - Advanced stats explanations

Analytics Teams/Sites

  1. Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Player grades methodology - Pressure and coverage metrics - Premium data access

  2. Football Outsiders - DVOA methodology - Weekly analysis - Long-form features

  3. The Athletic - Team-specific analytics - Draft analysis - Historical studies

  4. ESPN Stats & Info - QBR methodology - Broadcast-ready metrics - Weekly insights

Conference Presentations

MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

  1. "New Passing Metrics" presentations - Cutting-edge research - Academic rigor - Industry applications

  2. "Quarterback Evaluation" panels - Practitioner perspectives - Real-world implementation - Team analytics insights

Research Symposiums

  1. NESSIS (New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports) - Academic research presentations - Methodology discussions - Peer-reviewed quality

  2. Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference - Student and professional research - Technical deep-dives - Code sharing

Learning Paths

Beginner Path

  1. Start with Ben Baldwin's EPA explainer
  2. Load nflfastR data and explore
  3. Calculate basic EPA metrics for your favorite team
  4. Move to CPOE understanding
  5. Build simple comparisons

Intermediate Path

  1. Build your own completion probability model
  2. Implement pressure-adjusted metrics
  3. Create multi-factor QB rankings
  4. Validate against future performance
  5. Publish analysis on social media/blog

Advanced Path

  1. Read academic papers on EPA methodology
  2. Experiment with tracking data (NGS)
  3. Build real-time prediction systems
  4. Contribute to open-source tools
  5. Present at conferences

Podcasts

  1. PFF Forecast - Weekly analytics discussion - Methodology explanations - Industry interviews

  2. Establish the Run - Fantasy application of analytics - QB evaluation discussions - Data-driven analysis

  3. The Analytics Hour - Deep statistical discussions - Practitioner interviews - Technical topics

Practice Datasets

Available Datasets

  1. nflfastR play-by-play (2000-present) - EPA, WPA, CPOE included - Comprehensive NFL data - Free access

  2. cfbfastR play-by-play (2004-present) - College football EPA - Similar format to nflfastR - Free access

  3. Pro Football Reference CSV exports - Historical statistics - Advanced passing stats - Manual download required

Suggested Projects

  1. CPOE Stability Study - How stable is CPOE year-to-year? - Compare to completion % - Predictive analysis

  2. Pressure Impact Analysis - Calculate league-wide pressure effects - Identify pressure-resistant QBs - O-line attribution

  3. Draft Class Comparison - Compare QB draft classes by EPA - Track development curves - Predictive features

Next Steps After This Chapter

Immediate Next Chapters

  • Chapter 8: Rushing and Running Game Analysis
  • Chapter 9: Defensive Metrics and Analysis
  • Chapter 11: Efficiency Metrics (EPA, Success Rate) - More depth
  • Win Probability Added (WPA)
  • Expected Points models
  • Tracking data metrics (separation, time to throw)
  • Machine learning for prediction

Application Areas

  • Draft analysis and scouting
  • Game preparation and opponent analysis
  • Player development tracking
  • Contract valuation