Chapter 16 Exercises: Scientific Misinformation — Climate, Vaccines, and GMOs

These exercises develop analytical, research, and applied skills for understanding and addressing scientific misinformation. Complete all assigned exercises and observe specified word counts and citation requirements.

Part A: Conceptual Analysis

Exercise 16.1 — Frontier vs. Established Uncertainty (400 words)

Select a current scientific topic that appears controversial in public discourse (suggestions: mRNA vaccine long-term effects, organic farming productivity, geoengineering, nuclear energy safety). Write an analysis that: - Identifies what aspects of this topic are genuinely uncertain at the research frontier - Identifies what aspects are well established by scientific consensus - Explains how confusion between frontier and established knowledge is exploited in public discourse - Recommends how a science communicator should frame the topic to distinguish legitimate uncertainty from manufactured doubt

Exercise 16.2 — The Merchants of Doubt Framework (750 words)

Using Oreskes and Conway's framework, analyze a contemporary scientific controversy (not climate, tobacco, or ozone — choose from: food dye safety, cell phone radiation, fluoride in water, artificial sweeteners, 5G networks). Your analysis should: - Assess whether industry-funded doubt manufacturing is present - Identify the key actors (funded scientists, think tanks, PR operations) if they exist - Evaluate the quality of the evidence on both sides of the public controversy - Distinguish legitimate scientific debate from manufactured doubt - Reach a conclusion: is this a Merchants of Doubt scenario, legitimate scientific controversy, or something in between?

Exercise 16.3 — Climate Denial Taxonomy Application

The chapter describes five types of climate denial claims. For each of the following statements, identify the denial type, explain why the claim is false, and identify the rhetorical technique being used:

a. "Global temperatures haven't risen since 1998." (Hint: consider what 1998 represented) b. "CO2 is just plant food — more CO2 means more plant growth, which is good." c. "Scientists predicted in the 1970s that we would have an ice age by now. Why should we trust them about warming?" d. "Climate has always changed naturally — the Medieval Warm Period was just as warm as today." e. "Solving climate change would cost the economy $50 trillion and destroy millions of jobs." f. "ClimateGate proved that scientists were manipulating temperature data." g. "The sun's activity explains all of the warming we've seen."

Exercise 16.4 — VAERS Analysis Exercise

Go to the VAERS Wonder database (vaers.hhs.gov/data.html) or use the CDC's published VAERS summary data. Find: a. The total number of deaths reported following COVID-19 vaccination in VAERS b. The CDC's background mortality rate for comparable age groups in the US population c. Given the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, calculate how many deaths would be expected by chance in the 14 days following vaccination, based on background mortality rates d. Write a 400-word explanation of why VAERS death numbers cannot be interpreted as vaccine-caused deaths, using your calculations as evidence

Exercise 16.5 — The Séralini Affair Analysis (600 words)

Research the Séralini 2012 GMO-tumor paper, its retraction, and the responses from Séralini's group and supporters. Write an analysis that addresses: - The specific methodological criticisms that led to retraction - Séralini's claims about industry interference in the retraction process - Whether any element of Séralini's criticism of industry-funded GMO research is legitimate, regardless of his specific paper's quality - What this case tells us about science communication when retracted research has a motivated community of supporters - How a journalist should cover a retracted scientific paper

Exercise 16.6 — Cultural Cognition vs. Deficit Model (500 words)

Dan Kahan's cultural cognition research challenges the deficit model. Write an essay that: - Summarizes the key empirical findings distinguishing cultural cognition from deficit model predictions - Explains the mechanism of identity-protective cognition - Identifies at least one scenario where the deficit model might still be useful - Evaluates the policy implications: if information provision doesn't change minds of committed denialists, what should science communicators do?

Exercise 16.7 — Solution Aversion Experiment Design

Campbell and Kay demonstrated "solution aversion" — rejection of scientific evidence based on dislike of associated policy implications. Design a hypothetical experiment that would test whether solution aversion operates in vaccine skepticism: - State a testable hypothesis - Describe an experimental condition and control condition - Specify what you would measure and how - Explain what result would support vs. refute the solution aversion hypothesis - Discuss potential confounds and how you would address them

Exercise 16.8 — Evolution and Identity Threat (500 words)

Evolution denial is concentrated in communities where religious identity is strong. Write an analysis of the ethical and practical challenges for science educators: - What makes evolution particularly threatening to some religious identities? - How does the inoculation approach apply (or fail to apply) to evolution specifically? - What does the Dover (Kitzmiller) trial tell us about the distinction between science education and religious expression? - What communication strategies have shown promise for reaching evolution skeptics without requiring religious identity threat?

Part B: Research and Evidence Evaluation

Exercise 16.9 — Consensus Documentation

Research and document the scientific consensus position on each of the following topics. For each, find: (a) a major scientific organization's formal position statement, (b) a peer-reviewed consensus assessment study, (c) the approximate percentage of relevant scientists or studies that support the consensus. - Vaccine safety (specifically MMR and autism) - Human-caused climate change - Safety of approved GMOs for human consumption - Evolution as the explanation for biological diversity

Exercise 16.10 — Funding Source Analysis

Identify five published scientific studies or reports that challenge scientific consensus on one of the chapter's topics (climate change, vaccine safety, or GMO safety). For each: a. Identify the funding source for the research b. Identify any organizational affiliations of the authors c. Identify whether the study appeared in a peer-reviewed journal and its impact factor d. Summarize the criticism of this study from mainstream scientific sources e. Evaluate: does the funding source compromise the study's validity, or would you need to examine the methodology?

Exercise 16.11 — Fact-Check a Climate Claim

Select a specific, verifiable climate change claim currently circulating in public discourse (not a vague claim like "climate change isn't real," but a specific claim like "sea levels have only risen by X mm, not the alarming amounts claimed"). Perform a systematic fact-check: - State the claim precisely - Identify the data source claimed - Find and evaluate the original data - Compare against the mainstream scientific finding - Rate accuracy and explain your rating - Write a 400-word fact-check suitable for a general audience

Exercise 16.12 — The Wedge Document Analysis

Locate and read the Wedge Document (available online through the National Center for Science Education and other sources). Write a 500-word analysis: - What were the Discovery Institute's stated goals? - What is the relationship between those goals and the publicly stated goals of intelligent design? - How did the Wedge Document become relevant in the Kitzmiller trial? - What does the document tell us about the distinction between scientific and advocacy uses of research?

Exercise 16.13 — Inoculation Design

Based on inoculation theory, design a brief (300 words or less) "inoculation message" that would prepare a general audience to resist one of the following techniques used in scientific misinformation: a. Cherry-picking individual data points from a long-term trend to deny the trend b. Citing industry-funded "experts" to create false equivalence with scientific consensus c. Using VAERS or similar passive surveillance data to imply causation d. Appealing to the precautionary principle asymmetrically

For each design, identify: the manipulation technique being inoculated against; the warning component; the microdose example; and the refutation component.

Part C: Applied Analysis and Communication

Exercise 16.14 — Op-Ed: Communicating Climate Science (700 words)

Write an op-ed for a conservative-leaning general audience newspaper on climate change that: - Does not use language that triggers liberal identity associations ("environmental justice," "Green New Deal") - Frames the issue in terms consistent with conservative values (national security, economic opportunity, technology, American leadership) - Accurately represents the scientific consensus - Proposes one specific policy response consistent with market-friendly or national security framing Apply the FrameWorks Institute principles discussed in Section 16.8.

Exercise 16.15 — Trusted Messenger Strategy

You are advising a health department seeking to increase vaccine uptake in a hesitant rural community with strong religious identity. Design a communication strategy that: - Identifies the most appropriate trusted messengers for this community - Specifies the main concerns you need to address - Recommends specific messaging approaches based on the research literature - Explains what framing to avoid and why - Includes a 200-word sample message for a community meeting

Exercise 16.16 — Science Journalist Simulation

You are a science journalist covering a new study claiming that eating organic food reduces cancer risk by 25%. The study was conducted by a group that includes a researcher who has received grants from an organic food trade association. Write: a. A 500-word news article that accurately represents the study, its limitations, and the consensus context b. A 200-word explanation of the editorial choices you made in covering this study

Exercise 16.17 — The "Bad News" Game Analysis

Play the "Bad News" game (www.getbadnews.com), which simulates creating misinformation, or the "Harmony Square" political misinformation version. After playing: a. Describe the six manipulation techniques the game teaches you to use (DEPICT acronym: Discredit, Emotion, Polarize, Impersonate, Conspiracy, Trolling) b. Identify a real-world example of each technique from the scientific misinformation topics in this chapter c. Evaluate: do you feel more resistant to these techniques after playing? Why or why not? d. What are the limitations of the game as an inoculation intervention?

Exercise 16.18 — Museum Exhibit Design

Design a section of a science museum exhibit on "How Science Works" specifically aimed at countering science denialism. Your design should: - Address at least two of the chapter's topics (climate, vaccines, GMOs, evolution) - Incorporate inoculation theory principles - Be appropriate for a general public audience including children - Specify the interactive elements, text panels, and multimedia components - Explain your design choices in terms of science communication research

Part D: Cross-Topic Synthesis

Exercise 16.19 — Common Mechanisms Analysis (800 words)

Climate denial, vaccine skepticism, and GMO opposition are distinct movements with different origins, communities, and political valences. Write an analysis that: - Identifies the common mechanisms that appear across all three movements (manufactured doubt, cherry-picking, conspiracy appeals, precautionary principle misapplication, etc.) - Identifies important differences in how each movement operates - Evaluates which of Oreskes and Conway's "Merchants of Doubt" features apply to each movement - Argues for which movement is most and least shaped by coordinated industry interests (versus genuine grassroots concerns)

Exercise 16.20 — The Asymmetry Question (600 words)

The partisan asymmetry debate in misinformation (Chapter 15) applies to scientific misinformation too. In the US, climate change denial and evolution skepticism are concentrated in politically conservative communities, while GMO opposition and vaccine hesitancy (outside of COVID-specific vaccine resistance) show less clear partisan alignment. Write an analysis: - Documenting the partisan distribution of each scientific denial position - Evaluating whether the partisan associations are intrinsic to the issues or contingent on historical political developments - Assessing whether the "Merchants of Doubt" model explains the partisan distribution better than cultural cognition theory

Exercise 16.21 — Timeline and Actors Map

Create a visual map or detailed timeline (your choice of format) tracing the key actors in one of the following: a. The tobacco strategy and its application to climate denial (1950-2010) b. The anti-vaccine movement from DPT concerns (1980s) through Wakefield (1998) to COVID-19 (2020-2022) c. GMO opposition from the first approvals (1990s) through Séralini (2012) to the current state

Your map or timeline should include: key events, key actors and their connections, key documents, and turning points.

Part E: Coding and Data Analysis Exercises

Exercise 16.22 — Consensus Visualization Modification

Using example-01-scientific-consensus-viz.py, add at least two additional scientific topics to the consensus vs. public perception comparison. Choose topics from published survey data. Options: nuclear energy safety, fluoride in water, organic food health claims, 5G radiation risk. Update the visualization and write a 300-word interpretation.

Exercise 16.23 — Classifier Extension

Using example-02-climate-denial-classifier.py, add at least 15 additional training examples per denial type. Evaluate whether the extended classifier performs better or worse on the original test set, and explain any changes in performance.

Exercise 16.24 — Network Analysis Extension

Using example-03-misinformation-source-network.py, add at least 5 additional organizations to the climate denial network. Research the actual funding relationships of these organizations (the DeSmogBlog research database and InfluenceMap are useful sources). Add edges representing the actual documented funding flows you find.

Exercise 16.25 — Original Data Analysis

Using publicly available data from the Yale Program on Climate Communication (climatecommunication.yale.edu) or the Pew Research Center (pewresearch.org), download survey data on public beliefs about a scientific topic. Conduct an original analysis: - Compute the correlation between political affiliation and scientific consensus acceptance - Compare across age groups, education levels, or geographic regions - Visualize your findings in at least two formats - Write a 500-word interpretation that applies the cultural cognition framework to your findings

Exercise 16.26 — Misinformation Spread Simulation

Modify the spread model from Chapter 15's Example 2 (coordinated behavior detection) to simulate how scientific misinformation spreads differently through communities with high vs. low trust in scientific institutions. Your simulation should: - Create two network types: high-trust and low-trust - Model the same misinformation claim spreading through both - Track correction/debunking spread alongside misinformation spread - Visualize the results - Write a 400-word interpretation

Exercise 16.27 — Sentiment Analysis Application

Collect a sample of tweets or social media posts related to a scientific topic (vaccine safety, climate change, or GMOs) using the Twitter academic API, a research dataset, or manual collection of 200+ posts. Apply sentiment analysis and: - Compare the sentiment of pro-consensus vs. anti-consensus posts - Identify the most common emotional appeals in anti-consensus content - Assess whether anti-consensus content uses more emotional language than pro-consensus content (as predicted by the misinformation and emotion literature) - Discuss methodological limitations of this analysis

Exercise 16.28 — Inoculation Experiment Replication

Design and (if possible) conduct a small-scale replication of an inoculation study. Using a sample of at least 30 friends, classmates, or online survey respondents: - Randomly assign participants to inoculation condition or control - Expose inoculation group to a brief explanation of one manipulation technique - Expose both groups to a misinformation claim using that technique - Measure belief in the claim - Compare between groups - Write a 500-word methods and results section

Part F: Policy Analysis

Exercise 16.29 — Platform Policy for Scientific Misinformation

YouTube has policies that restrict promotion of content that "contradicts the scientific or medical consensus around well-established topics such as vaccines, climate change, the age of the Earth, and others." Evaluate this policy: - What does "scientific consensus" mean as an operational standard? - Who should adjudicate disputes about what consensus positions require? - What is the risk of false positives (restricting legitimate scientific discourse at the frontier)? - How does this policy interact with the distinction between scientific consensus and associated policy debates? - Would you recommend any changes to this policy?

Exercise 16.30 — Science Communication Program Evaluation

Research one existing science communication program designed to address scientific misinformation (options: NOAA's climate communication program, CDC vaccine communication, NIH GMO education materials, AAAS public engagement programs). Write a 600-word evaluation: - What is the program's theory of change (how does it expect to produce its effects)? - Is that theory consistent with the cultural cognition and inoculation research? - What evidence exists for the program's effectiveness? - What would you recommend to improve the program based on the research literature?

Exercise 16.31 — Corporate Accountability Proposal

ExxonMobil's internal research in the 1970s and 80s concluded that burning fossil fuels would cause significant global warming, but the company simultaneously funded public campaigns manufacturing doubt about climate science. Various attorneys general have investigated Exxon for potential fraud related to this conduct. Write a 700-word policy analysis: - What legal theories have been used in these investigations? - What would be the requirements to prove that Exxon's public climate statements constituted fraud? - What are the civil liberties implications of holding corporations liable for public statements that dispute scientific consensus? - Are there alternative regulatory or policy mechanisms that could address this conduct without the free speech concerns?

Exercise 16.32 — Education Policy Brief

Write a 600-word policy brief addressed to a state board of education on one of the following: a. Teaching evolution in public schools in a religiously diverse community b. Vaccine mandate policies and how to communicate them to hesitant communities c. Climate change education standards in a state where elected officials dispute the consensus

Your policy brief should be grounded in both the relevant science communication research and in the applicable legal and political constraints.