Quiz: Receiving Analytics

Target: 70% or higher to proceed.

Section 1: Multiple Choice (1 point each)

1. What does target share measure?

  • A) Percentage of team yards from a receiver
  • B) Percentage of team pass attempts to a receiver
  • C) Percentage of completions
  • D) Share of team touchdowns
Answer **B)** Percentage of team pass attempts to a receiver *Explanation:* Target share = receiver's targets / team's total pass attempts.

2. What does ADOT stand for?

  • A) Average Distance Over Time
  • B) Average Depth of Target
  • C) Adjusted Distance of Throw
  • D) Actual Depth of Target
Answer **B)** Average Depth of Target *Explanation:* ADOT measures the average air yards on all pass attempts to a receiver.

3. What does a RACR above 1.0 indicate?

  • A) The receiver is dropping passes
  • B) The receiver gains more yards than targeted (high YAC)
  • C) The quarterback is inaccurate
  • D) The receiver has low target share
Answer **B)** The receiver gains more yards than targeted (high YAC) *Explanation:* RACR = receiving yards / air yards. Above 1.0 means YAC is adding to the air yards.

4. Why is raw catch rate a limited metric for receiver evaluation?

  • A) It's too complicated
  • B) It doesn't account for target difficulty (depth, separation)
  • C) It's not tracked accurately
  • D) It overvalues touchdowns
Answer **B)** It doesn't account for target difficulty (depth, separation) *Explanation:* A receiver with mostly short targets will have higher catch rate than a deep threat regardless of skill.

5. What is the primary challenge in separating receiver value from QB value?

  • A) They're on different teams
  • B) Receivers don't control throw quality, but outcomes depend on it
  • C) There's no data available
  • D) QBs don't affect receiver stats
Answer **B)** Receivers don't control throw quality, but outcomes depend on it *Explanation:* A perfectly run route with a bad throw results in poor stats for the receiver.

6. What does YAC measure?

  • A) Yards in the air before catch
  • B) Yards gained after making the catch
  • C) Yards lost on drops
  • D) Total receiving yards
Answer **B)** Yards gained after making the catch *Explanation:* YAC = yards after catch, measuring receiver contribution post-reception.

7. A receiver with low ADOT and high YAC is likely a:

  • A) Deep threat
  • B) Red zone specialist
  • C) Slot/YAC specialist
  • D) Tight end
Answer **C)** Slot/YAC specialist *Explanation:* Low ADOT means short targets; high YAC means gaining yards after catch—characteristic of slot receivers.

8. What is WOPR used to measure?

  • A) Wins over passing replacement
  • B) Weighted opportunity rating combining target and air yards share
  • C) Wide out production rating
  • D) Weekly offensive passing rate
Answer **B)** Weighted opportunity rating combining target and air yards share *Explanation:* WOPR = 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air yards share, measuring receiving opportunity.

9. Why might a receiver have high EPA but low catch rate?

  • A) Deep targets with successful completions
  • B) They drop everything
  • C) Bad quarterback
  • D) EPA doesn't work for receivers
Answer **A)** Deep targets with successful completions *Explanation:* Deep targets have lower catch rates but high EPA when caught. A few big plays can drive high EPA.

10. How can you control for QB quality when evaluating receivers?

  • A) Ignore it
  • B) Compare receivers who have the same quarterback
  • C) Use fantasy points
  • D) Only look at catch rate
Answer **B)** Compare receivers who have the same quarterback *Explanation:* Same-QB comparison isolates receiver contribution since throw quality is constant.

Section 2: True/False (1 point each)

11. High target share always indicates an elite receiver.

Answer **False** *Explanation:* A receiver can have high target share due to lack of other options, not necessarily skill.

12. EPA per target is generally higher than EPA per rushing attempt.

Answer **True** *Explanation:* Passing is more efficient than rushing (~+0.05 EPA vs ~-0.05), so receiving EPA is typically higher.

13. ADOT and catch rate are typically positively correlated.

Answer **False** *Explanation:* They're negatively correlated—deeper targets are harder to catch.

14. Red zone targets typically have higher EPA than non-red zone targets.

Answer **True** *Explanation:* Red zone plays are closer to scoring, so successful plays have higher EPA impact.

15. Yards after catch is entirely attributable to the receiver's skill.

Answer **False** *Explanation:* YAC also depends on throw location, scheme design, and blocker effort—not purely receiver skill.

Section 3: Code Analysis (2 points each)

16. What does this code calculate?

passes.groupby('receiver_player_name').agg(
    racr=lambda x: x['yards_gained'].sum() / x['air_yards'].sum()
)
Answer This calculates RACR (Receiver Air Conversion Ratio) for each receiver. RACR = total receiving yards / total air yards - Values > 1.0 mean receiver gains more than targeted (YAC contribution) - Values < 1.0 mean incomplete passes or low YAC

17. What's the issue with this receiver comparison?

rec_a = passes[passes['receiver'] == 'WR_A']['epa'].mean()
rec_b = passes[passes['receiver'] == 'WR_B']['epa'].mean()
print(f"WR_A is better: {rec_a > rec_b}")
Answer **Issues:** 1. No sample size check 2. No QB quality control (different QBs) 3. No target quality comparison (depth, situation) 4. No statistical significance test **Better approach:** 
# Check targets, compare with same QB
# Account for ADOT and situations
# Use confidence intervals

18. What does this code accomplish?

qb_baseline = passes.groupby('passer_player_name')['epa'].mean()
passes = passes.merge(qb_baseline.rename('qb_epa'),
                      left_on='passer_player_name', right_index=True)
passes['rec_over_qb'] = passes['epa'] - passes['qb_epa']
Answer This creates a QB-adjusted receiving metric: 1. Calculates each QB's average EPA 2. Joins QB baseline to each pass 3. Subtracts QB average from each target's EPA 4. Result: How much better/worse was this target vs. QB's typical pass? This helps isolate receiver contribution from QB quality.

Section 4: Short Answer (2 points each)

19. Explain the difference between air yards, YAC, and receiving yards.

Sample Answer **Air Yards:** Distance the ball travels in the air from line of scrimmage to catch point (or intended catch point) **YAC (Yards After Catch):** Yards gained by the receiver after making the catch, before being tackled **Receiving Yards:** Total yards gained on the play = Air Yards + YAC (for completions) Example: A 25-yard reception where the ball traveled 15 yards in the air and the receiver ran 10 more yards: - Air yards: 15 - YAC: 10 - Receiving yards: 25

20. Why is target share an important but incomplete metric?

Sample Answer **Important because:** - Shows opportunity level - Indicates team's confidence in receiver - Correlates with raw production - Baseline for all volume stats **Incomplete because:** - High volume doesn't mean high efficiency - May reflect lack of options, not quality - Doesn't account for target quality (depth, situation) - Can be inflated by garbage time - Ignores QB and scheme contribution Need efficiency metrics (EPA/target) alongside target share.

21. How would you design an analysis to identify undervalued receivers?

Sample Answer **Analysis Design:** 1. **Efficiency over volume**: Find receivers with high EPA/target but low target share 2. **QB adjustment**: Identify receivers who perform despite bad QBs 3. **Situational excellence**: Find third-down or red zone specialists 4. **YAC specialists**: Receivers who maximize short targets 5. **Team context**: Compare to teammates with same QB/scheme **Metrics to use:** - EPA per target (rank high, volume rank low = undervalued) - Catch rate over expected - QB-adjusted EPA - RACR (converting opportunities) Undervalued = high efficiency + low opportunity + not on dominant passing team

Section 5: Application (3 points each)

22. Design an analysis to determine if a receiver's success is due to their skill or their quarterback.

Sample Answer **Analysis Approach:** 1. **Same-QB comparison**: - Compare all receivers targeted by the same QB - If one receiver significantly outperforms, suggests individual skill 2. **Multi-QB tracking**: - Follow receiver if they change teams/QBs - Consistent performance = receiver skill - Variable performance = QB-dependent 3. **QB-adjusted metrics**: - Calculate receiver EPA over QB baseline - Positive = adds value beyond QB 4. **YAC isolation**: - YAC is less QB-dependent - High YAC suggests receiver skill 5. **Catch rate over expected**: - Controls for throw difficulty - Isolates receiver catching ability **Limitation:** Perfect separation impossible—receiving is inherently collaborative.

23. A team is considering two free agent receivers: (A) High target share (28%), average EPA/target (0.15), or (B) Low target share (14%), high EPA/target (0.35). How would you advise them?

Sample Answer **Analysis:** 1. **Efficiency matters more**: - Receiver B is more efficient (0.35 vs 0.15 EPA/target) - But can B maintain efficiency with more volume? 2. **Volume increase projection**: - B at 14% share might become 20-25% as a starter - Historical data: efficiency often declines with volume - But top receivers maintain both 3. **Context investigation**: - Why is B's share low? Injury? Bad team? Role player? - Why is A's efficiency average? Covered by #1 CB? Poor QB? 4. **QB fit**: - Analyze receivers with new team's QB - Which style fits the offense? 5. **Additional factors**: - Age and trajectory - Injury history - Contract demands **Recommendation:** Likely prefer B unless volume increase kills efficiency. High-efficiency receivers often maintain performance better than high-volume average receivers. But need context on why shares differ.

Section 6: Matching (1 point each)

Match the metric with what it primarily measures:

Metric Measures
24a. ADOT A. Opportunity conversion
24b. RACR B. Receiving efficiency
24c. EPA/target C. Target depth
24d. YAC D. Post-catch production
Answers **24a. C** - ADOT: Target depth (average air yards) **24b. A** - RACR: Opportunity conversion (yards / air yards) **24c. B** - EPA/target: Receiving efficiency (value per opportunity) **24d. D** - YAC: Post-catch production (yards after catch)

Section 7: Critical Thinking (2 points)

25. A receiver leads the league in yards but has below-average EPA per target and the lowest catch rate among qualified receivers. How would you evaluate this player?

Sample Answer **How this happens:** 1. **Extreme volume**: Enough targets to accumulate yards despite low efficiency 2. **Deep threat role**: Low catch rate + high yards = successful deep balls 3. **Boom-bust profile**: Few catches, but big ones **Evaluation considerations:** 1. **Role understanding**: Is this by design (field stretcher) or inefficiency? 2. **Team context**: - Does team have many options? (if not, force-fed targets) - QB quality affecting catch rate? 3. **EPA interpretation**: - Low EPA/target but high total EPA possible - Check situational EPA (3rd down, red zone) 4. **Sustainability**: - Can maintain volume? - What happens if targets decrease? 5. **True value**: - Yards are inflated by volume - Efficiency matters for wins - But stretching the field has unmeasured value **Assessment:** Not necessarily bad—deep threats have this profile. But don't pay for yards; pay for efficiency. If team can get similar production cheaper, consider it.

Scoring

Section Points Your Score
Multiple Choice (1-10) 10 ___
True/False (11-15) 5 ___
Code Analysis (16-18) 6 ___
Short Answer (19-21) 6 ___
Application (22-23) 6 ___
Matching (24) 4 ___
Critical Thinking (25) 2 ___
Total 39 ___

Passing Score: 27/39 (70%)