Quiz: Draft Analysis

Test your understanding of NFL Draft prospect evaluation, combine analysis, and draft value calculations.

Multiple Choice Questions

Question 1

What is "Dominator Rating" measuring?

A) A player's physical dominance in combine testing B) A player's share of their team's production C) A player's win rate against NFL-caliber competition D) A player's draft position relative to peers

Question 2

Which conference has the highest adjustment factor for normalizing production?

A) Big Ten B) SEC C) ACC D) Big 12

Question 3

For wide receivers, what breakout age is considered "elite"?

A) ≤18.5 years B) ≤19.5 years C) ≤20.5 years D) ≤21.5 years

Question 4

The Speed Score formula is:

A) Weight / 40-time B) (Weight × 200) / (40-time)^4 C) (Weight + 40-time) × 100 D) Weight × 40-time × 10

Question 5

Which position typically has the HIGHEST draft premium?

A) Running Back B) Wide Receiver C) Quarterback D) Tight End

Question 6

What does YPRR stand for?

A) Yards Per Reception Rate B) Yards Per Route Run C) Yearly Production Rating Rank D) Youth Performance Regression Rate

Question 7

The NFL Combine's primary purpose is to provide:

A) Guaranteed draft positions B) Standardized athletic testing C) Character evaluations D) Contract negotiations

Question 8

A WR Dominator Rating of 35% is typically interpreted as:

A) Below average B) Role player level C) Quality starter D) Elite alpha

Question 9

What is the approximate value ratio between pick 1 and pick 32?

A) 2:1 B) 4:1 C) 6:1 D) 10:1

Question 10

Which metric has the HIGHEST correlation with NFL success for wide receivers?

A) Total receiving yards B) Yards per route run C) 40-yard dash time D) Vertical jump

Question 11

RAS (Relative Athletic Score) is measured on what scale?

A) 0-50 B) 0-100 C) 0-10 D) 1-99

Question 12

For running backs, which skill is MOST important for modern NFL success?

A) Breakaway speed B) Short-yardage power C) Pass-catching ability D) Kick return speed

Question 13

What is the typical starter probability for players drafted in picks 11-32?

A) 30% B) 50% C) 65% D) 80%

Question 14

The FCS conference adjustment factor is approximately:

A) 0.95 B) 0.85 C) 0.75 D) 0.65

Question 15

What does a late "breakout age" typically indicate?

A) Higher NFL upside B) Increased bust risk C) Better work ethic D) Stronger competition faced

Question 16

Elite 40-yard dash time for a cornerback is approximately:

A) 4.32 seconds B) 4.42 seconds C) 4.52 seconds D) 4.62 seconds

Question 17

Which factor is LEAST predictive of NFL quarterback success?

A) Adjusted completion percentage B) 40-yard dash time C) TD:INT ratio D) Yards per attempt

Question 18

The "Height-Adjusted Speed Score" accounts for:

A) Taller players having longer strides B) Taller players naturally running slower C) Height advantages in contested catches D) Shorter players having lower centers of gravity

Question 19

What RB Speed Score is considered "elite"?

A) >85 B) >95 C) >105 D) >115

Question 20

Which position typically has the LOWEST draft premium (i.e., should be drafted later)?

A) Quarterback B) Offensive Tackle C) Running Back D) EDGE Rusher

True/False Questions

Question 21

True or False: A player from a weaker conference should have their raw statistics adjusted upward.

Question 22

True or False: Combine metrics are highly predictive of NFL success across all positions.

Question 23

True or False: QB prospects who break out before age 20 typically have higher NFL success rates.

Question 24

True or False: Draft pick value decreases linearly from pick 1 to pick 256.

Question 25

True or False: A 25% Dominator Rating for a WR indicates elite alpha potential.

Short Answer Questions

Question 26

Calculate the Speed Score for a RB weighing 210 lbs who runs a 4.45 40-yard dash.

Question 27

A WR had 1,100 receiving yards and 10 TDs. His team totaled 2,800 receiving yards and 25 TDs. What is his Dominator Rating?

Question 28

Explain why RB draft premium is lower (0.85x) compared to other skill positions.

Question 29

A prospect played at an AAC school (factor 0.90) and had 3,500 passing yards. What are his conference-adjusted yards? What would they be if he played in the SEC (factor 1.15)?

Question 30

Your team has pick 12 (value ~1,300). You're offered picks 28 (value ~600) and 45 (value ~350). Should you accept this trade? Explain.

Answer Key

Multiple Choice

B) A player's share of their team's production - Dominator Rating measures receiving/rushing yards and TD share.
B) SEC - SEC has the highest conference factor at 1.15.
B) ≤19.5 years - Elite WR breakout age threshold is 19.5 or younger.
B) (Weight × 200) / (40-time)^4 - Bill Barnwell's Speed Score formula.
C) Quarterback - QBs have 1.3x premium due to positional importance.
B) Yards Per Route Run - Key efficiency metric for receivers.
B) Standardized athletic testing - Provides consistent measurement environment.
D) Elite alpha - 35%+ indicates dominant target share.
C) 6:1 - Pick 1 (~3000) vs Pick 32 (~500) = 6:1 ratio.
B) Yards per route run - Highest NFL correlation (~0.42) for WRs.
C) 0-10 - RAS uses a 0-10 scale.
C) Pass-catching ability - Modern offenses require three-down backs.
B) 50% - First-round picks (11-32) have ~50% starter rate.
D) 0.65 - FCS competition significantly discounted.
B) Increased bust risk - Late breakouts correlate with lower NFL success.
B) 4.42 seconds - Elite CB 40-yard threshold.
B) 40-yard dash time - Mobility matters, but production metrics are more predictive.
B) Taller players naturally running slower - Adjusts for expected speed decrease with height.
C) >105 - Elite RB Speed Score threshold.
C) Running Back - RB premium is 0.85x, lowest among skill positions.

True/False

False - Weaker conference stats should be adjusted DOWNWARD (multiplied by factor <1.0).
False - Combine metrics indicate athleticism but have moderate NFL correlation at best.
True - Early breakout age correlates with higher NFL success rates.
False - Draft pick value decreases non-linearly (exponentially), with steeper drops early.
False - 25% is "Quality Starter" level; Elite Alpha requires 35%+.

Short Answer

Speed Score Calculation:

Speed Score = (210 × 200) / (4.45)^4
            = 42,000 / 392.0
            = 107.1

This is elite (>105).

Dominator Rating:

Yards Share = 1,100 / 2,800 = 39.3%
TD Share = 10 / 25 = 40.0%
Dominator = (39.3 + 40.0) / 2 = 39.65%

This is elite alpha territory (>35%).

RB Draft Premium Explanation: - RBs have shortest career spans (~4-5 years average) - Position has highest replacement rate (waiver/UDFA production common) - Offensive line affects RB production significantly - Pass-catching and receiving increasingly important - Historical bust rate is highest among skill positions - Teams can find serviceable RBs in later rounds
Conference Adjustment:

AAC-adjusted: 3,500 × 0.90 = 3,150 yards
SEC-adjusted: 3,500 × 1.15 = 4,025 yards

The same raw performance is worth ~875 more adjusted yards if played against SEC competition.

Trade Evaluation:

Giving: Pick 12 = 1,300 value
Receiving: Pick 28 (600) + Pick 45 (350) = 950 value
Net: -350 value (losing 27% of value)

Should NOT accept. You're losing significant value. Would need an additional pick worth ~350 points (approximately pick 55-60) to make this fair.

Scoring Guide

27-30 correct: Expert - Ready for NFL front office analytics
23-26 correct: Advanced - Strong grasp of evaluation frameworks
18-22 correct: Proficient - Good foundation, review combine analysis
13-17 correct: Developing - Revisit production metrics and draft value
Below 13: Review Chapter 28 thoroughly

Key Concepts Summary

Production Analysis - Normalize for conference, measure efficiency (YPRR)
Profile Metrics - Breakout age and Dominator predict alpha potential
Combine Testing - Athletic indicators, not success predictors
Position Models - Each position has unique evaluation criteria
Draft Value - Exponential decay; trade math matters
Context Matters - Competition level, scheme, and role affect evaluation