Quiz: Pace and Play Calling

Question 1

What does "neutral pass rate" measure?

A) Pass rate on all plays B) Pass rate when the score is tied C) Pass rate in neutral situations (early downs, close game, moderate WP) D) Pass rate minus league average

Question 2

A team runs 66 plays per game with an average of 26 seconds between plays. Their tempo is best described as:

A) Fast B) Above average C) Average D) Slow

Question 3

Which statement about passing vs rushing efficiency is generally TRUE league-wide?

A) Rushing is more efficient than passing B) Passing is more efficient but has higher variance C) They are equally efficient D) Rushing has higher variance

Question 4

When a team is trailing by 14+ points, what pass rate would you typically expect?

A) 40-50% B) 50-60% C) 60-70% D) 70-80%

Question 5

What is Shannon entropy used for in play-calling analysis?

A) Measuring offensive efficiency B) Calculating expected points C) Measuring predictability/randomness D) Adjusting for opponent strength

Question 6

The "pass premium" refers to:

A) How much teams pay for good quarterbacks B) The difference between pass EPA and rush EPA C) The bonus for completing a pass on 3rd down D) Extra points for passing touchdowns

Question 7

On 4th & 1 from the opponent's 40-yard line with 10 minutes left in a tied game, the typical optimal decision is:

A) Always punt B) Always kick a field goal C) Go for it D) Depends entirely on the team's conversion rate

Question 8

Why is neutral pass rate considered more valuable than overall pass rate for evaluating offensive philosophy?

A) It has a larger sample size B) It removes game script effects (trailing/leading) C) It only includes successful plays D) It accounts for opponent strength

Question 9

A team with a "tell" formation would have:

A) Balanced pass/run rates from all formations B) Extremely high or low pass rates from specific formations C) Above-average offensive EPA D) Fast tempo

Question 10

What correlation would you expect between team pass rate and offensive EPA?

A) Strong negative (r ≈ -0.60) B) No correlation (r ≈ 0.00) C) Moderate positive (r ≈ 0.40-0.55) D) Perfect positive (r ≈ 1.00)

Question 11

When evaluating fourth down decisions, expected value is calculated by:

A) The probability of conversion only B) (Success probability × Success value) + (Failure probability × Failure value) C) Field goal percentage minus punt distance D) Time remaining × score differential

Question 12

A team has a 90% pass rate on 2nd & Long. The Shannon entropy for this situation is:

A) Close to 1.0 (maximum uncertainty) B) Close to 0.5 C) Close to 0.47 (low uncertainty) D) Exactly 0.0

Question 13

What is the typical league-wide pass rate in the modern NFL?

A) Around 45% B) Around 50% C) Around 58% D) Around 70%

Question 14

Why might running the ball when leading by 14+ be suboptimal?

A) It increases the opponent's time of possession B) Running still has lower expected value than passing C) It makes the game longer D) Defenses always expect runs in this situation

Question 15

A "fast tempo" offense typically runs how many plays per game?

A) 50-55 B) 56-60 C) 62-65 D) 68-72

Question 16

Which situation typically has the HIGHEST pass rate?

A) 1st & 10 B) 2nd & Short (1-3 yards) C) 3rd & Long (8+ yards) D) Leading by 10+ in 4th quarter

Question 17

The correlation between pace (plays per game) and offensive efficiency is typically:

A) Strong negative B) Weak positive C) Strong positive D) No relationship

Question 18

When calculating expected value for a 4th down go decision, "EP if fail" refers to:

A) The points the opponent will definitely score B) The expected points value at the resulting field position for the opponent C) Zero points D) Negative seven points

Question 19

A team that converts 70% of 4th & 1 attempts has a conversion rate that is:

A) Below average B) About average C) Slightly below typical rates (~73%) D) Well above average

Question 20

What does a predictability score of 0.85 indicate?

A) The team is very unpredictable B) The team is highly predictable from tendencies C) The team has 85% success rate D) The team passes 85% of the time

Answer Key

  1. C - Neutral pass rate isolates true offensive philosophy by removing game script effects (early downs, close game, moderate win probability).

  2. C - 66 plays/game is average (62-65 typical), and 26 seconds between plays is average tempo.

  3. B - Passing averages higher EPA (+0.05) than rushing (-0.03) but has significantly higher variance (std ~1.5 vs ~0.9).

  4. D - Teams trailing by 14+ typically pass 70-80% of the time as they try to score quickly and preserve clock.

  5. C - Shannon entropy measures randomness/uncertainty. High entropy = unpredictable; low entropy = predictable tendencies.

  6. B - Pass premium is the efficiency advantage of passing over rushing: Pass EPA minus Rush EPA (typically ~0.08).

  7. C - With high conversion rates (~73% on 4th & 1) and unfavorable field goal distance, going for it typically has highest expected value.

  8. B - Neutral situations remove the bias from game script (teams pass more when trailing, run more when leading).

  9. B - A "tell" formation has extreme pass/run tendencies that allow defenses to predict play type.

  10. C - Teams that pass more tend to be more efficient, with moderate positive correlation (r ≈ 0.40-0.55).

  11. B - Expected value = (probability of outcome × value of outcome) summed across all outcomes.

  12. C - Entropy for 90% pass rate: -0.9log2(0.9) - 0.1log2(0.1) ≈ 0.47 (low uncertainty, predictable).

  13. C - Modern NFL pass rate is approximately 58%, though it varies by team and situation.

  14. B - Even when leading, passing often still has higher expected value. Running "to kill clock" sacrifices scoring opportunities.

  15. D - Fast tempo offenses run 68-72 plays per game; average is 62-65.

  16. C - 3rd & Long has the highest pass rates (85-95%) as teams need big gains to convert.

  17. B - Pace has weak positive correlation with efficiency (r ≈ 0.2-0.3); faster teams are slightly more efficient.

  18. B - "EP if fail" is the expected points the opponent gains from receiving the ball at that field position.

  19. C - Average 4th & 1 conversion rate is about 73%, so 70% is slightly below typical.

  20. B - A predictability score near 1.0 indicates highly predictable play-calling from situational tendencies.

Scoring Guide

  • 18-20: Excellent - Ready for advanced play-calling analysis
  • 15-17: Good - Strong understanding of pace and decision-making
  • 12-14: Satisfactory - Review key concepts
  • Below 12: Needs Review - Revisit chapter material