Quiz: Weather Effects

Test your understanding of weather impact on NFL games.

Multiple Choice Questions

Question 1

Which weather factor typically has the LARGEST impact on NFL game totals?

A) Temperature B) Wind C) Humidity D) Altitude

Question 2

At what temperature do weather effects typically begin to impact NFL games?

A) Below 70°F B) Below 55°F C) Below 40°F D) Below 32°F

Question 3

What is the approximate total points adjustment for a game played at 30°F?

A) 0 points B) -1.5 points C) -3.0 points D) -5.0 points

Question 4

At what wind speed do effects become significant on passing?

A) 5 mph B) 10 mph C) 15 mph D) 25 mph

Question 5

How many NFL teams play in fully indoor stadiums (as of 2024)?

A) 4 teams B) 6 teams C) 8 teams D) 10 teams

Question 6

Which aspect of the game is MOST affected by wind?

A) Running plays B) Passing and kicking C) Defensive formations D) Time of possession

Question 7

What is the approximate total adjustment for heavy snow?

A) -2.0 points B) -4.0 points C) -5.5 points D) -7.0 points

Question 8

Why does weather typically affect totals MORE than spreads?

A) Referees adjust for weather B) Weather affects both teams similarly C) Scoring rules change in bad weather D) Home teams always benefit from weather

Question 9

Which NFL stadium requires altitude adjustment?

A) All outdoor stadiums B) Only mountain region stadiums C) Only Denver (Mile High) D) Both Denver and Salt Lake (no team)

Question 10

What additional home advantage does a cold-weather team gain when hosting a dome team in extreme cold?

A) 0-0.5 points B) 1.0-2.0 points C) 3.0-4.0 points D) 5.0+ points

Question 11

Approximately what percentage of regular season NFL games are played indoors?

A) 20% B) 30% C) 40% D) 50%

Question 12

Which precipitation type typically has the HIGHEST variance in game outcomes?

A) Light rain B) Heavy rain C) Snow D) Fog

Question 13

At Denver's Mile High Stadium, approximately how much additional range do kickers gain?

A) No additional range B) 1-2 yards C) 2-3 yards D) 5+ yards

Question 14

What should you do when forecasts change significantly before game time?

A) Ignore updates after Wednesday B) Use only the original forecast C) Update your adjustments D) Remove all weather adjustments

Question 15

When a retractable roof stadium closes due to weather, what happens to weather adjustments?

A) Keep full adjustments B) Apply half adjustments C) Remove adjustments (treat as indoor) D) Double the adjustments

Question 16

Which market (spread or total) is typically more efficient at pricing weather?

A) Spread (weather well-priced) B) Total (weather well-priced) C) Both equally efficient D) Neither prices weather well

Question 17

Why might wind be underpriced by betting markets?

A) It's hard to measure B) It changes during games C) Less obvious than cold/snow D) All of the above

Question 18

What weather condition increases game variance the MOST?

A) Mild cold (40°F) B) Extreme cold (<20°F) C) Snow D) Light rain

Question 19

For early season heat effects, what matters more than raw temperature?

A) Wind speed B) Heat index (temperature + humidity) C) Time of day D) Stadium orientation

Question 20

When should weather adjustments be LARGEST for spread (not just total)?

A) When both teams are from similar climates B) When conditions are extreme for any team C) When teams have very different climate/dome backgrounds D) When the forecast is uncertain

Answer Key

Question 1

Correct Answer: B) Wind

Wind has the largest single-factor impact because it directly affects ball flight for passes and kicks, and is asymmetric (teams take turns facing it). Cold affects both teams relatively equally.

Question 2

Correct Answer: B) Below 55°F

The standard weather model uses 55°F as the threshold below which cold begins to affect gameplay, with increasing impact as temperature drops further.

Question 3

Correct Answer: C) -3.0 points

Using the formula: Adjustment = -0.12 × (55 - 30) = -0.12 × 25 = -3.0 points.

Question 4

Correct Answer: C) 15 mph

While effects begin around 10 mph, they become significant above 15 mph, where passing accuracy and kick distance are noticeably affected.

Question 5

Correct Answer: C) 8 teams

Cowboys, Saints, Falcons, Vikings, Raiders, Rams/Chargers (shared), Cardinals, and Lions all play in fully indoor stadiums.

Question 6

Correct Answer: B) Passing and kicking

Wind directly affects ball flight, making deep passes, field goals, and punts unreliable. Running plays are relatively unaffected.

Question 7

Correct Answer: C) -5.5 points

Heavy snow creates significant impact due to ball grip issues, visibility problems, and altered field conditions.

Question 8

Correct Answer: B) Weather affects both teams similarly

Since both teams play in the same conditions, weather tends to reduce overall scoring (affecting totals) without significantly changing the relative competitive balance (spreads).

Question 9

Correct Answer: C) Only Denver (Mile High)

At 5,280 feet elevation, Denver is the only NFL stadium high enough to require meaningful altitude adjustment. No other stadium exceeds 1,100 feet.

Question 10

Correct Answer: B) 1.0-2.0 points

When a dome team visits extreme cold (<30°F), the home team gains 1.0-2.0 additional points of advantage beyond standard home field advantage.

Question 11

Correct Answer: C) 40%

With 8 indoor teams hosting 8 home games each, plus retractable roof decisions, approximately 40% of regular season games are played indoors.

Question 12

Correct Answer: C) Snow

Snow games have the highest variance (std ~18 vs ~13.5 normally) because conditions can change rapidly and team adaptation varies widely.

Question 13

Correct Answer: C) 2-3 yards

The thinner air at altitude allows kicks to travel further, giving kickers approximately 2-3 yards of additional effective range.

Question 14

Correct Answer: C) Update your adjustments

Weather forecasts become more accurate as game time approaches. Always use the most current forecast and update adjustments accordingly.

Question 15

Correct Answer: C) Remove adjustments (treat as indoor)

When a retractable roof closes, the game becomes effectively indoor, and weather adjustments should be removed.

Question 16

Correct Answer: B) Total (weather well-priced)

Markets generally price totals efficiently for weather, especially for obvious conditions. Spreads may have more opportunity due to asymmetric team effects.

Question 17

Correct Answer: D) All of the above

Wind is underpriced because it's less visually obvious than snow, harder to measure precisely, and varies during games. Public bettors focus on temperature and precipitation.

Question 18

Correct Answer: C) Snow

Snow games have significantly higher variance in outcomes compared to other conditions, making predictions less reliable.

Question 19

Correct Answer: B) Heat index (temperature + humidity)

The combination of high temperature and high humidity creates heat stress. Heat index (feels-like temperature) better captures player impact than raw temperature alone.

Question 20

Correct Answer: C) When teams have very different climate/dome backgrounds

Spread adjustments are largest when there's asymmetry—e.g., a dome team visiting extreme cold, where one team is significantly more affected than the other.

Scoring Guide

Key Concepts Summary

1. Wind matters most - Direct effect on ball flight
2. 55°F threshold - Cold effects begin below this
3. Snow = high variance - Outcomes are unpredictable
4. Totals > spreads - Weather affects scoring more than balance
5. Denver is unique - Only meaningful altitude adjustment
6. Update forecasts - Use most current data available