Quiz: Schedule and Rest Analysis

Test your understanding of NFL schedule factors, bye weeks, rest differentials, and their impact on game predictions.

Multiple Choice Questions

Question 1

What is the approximate point advantage for an NFL team coming off their bye week against a normally-rested opponent?

A) +0.5 points B) +1.2 points C) +2.5 points D) +3.0 points

Question 2

Which bye week timing provides the LARGEST advantage?

A) Week 4 (early bye) B) Week 7 (standard bye) C) Week 10 (mid-late bye) D) Week 13 (very late bye)

Question 3

What is the standard penalty for an away team playing on Thursday Night Football after a Sunday game?

A) -0.5 points B) -1.5 points C) -2.5 points D) -3.5 points

Question 4

If an away team played Monday Night Football and must travel for Thursday Night Football, the short-rest penalty is approximately:

A) -1.5 points B) -2.0 points C) -3.0 points D) -4.5 points

Question 5

How many days of rest does a team typically have between Sunday games?

A) 5 days B) 6 days C) 7 days D) 8 days

Question 6

What is the approximate travel adjustment per timezone crossed?

A) +0.1 points to home team B) +0.2 points to home team C) +0.5 points to home team D) +1.0 points to home team

Question 7

West-to-East travel is considered more difficult than East-to-West because:

A) The distance is typically longer B) Teams lose time adjusting to earlier timezone C) Eastern stadiums are louder D) Weather is typically worse in the East

Question 8

When BOTH teams are coming off bye weeks, the net bye advantage is:

A) Double the standard bye effect B) Zero (advantages cancel out) C) Still +1.2 for the home team D) Depends on which team's bye was later

Question 9

What does SOS stand for in NFL scheduling analysis?

A) Season Opening Schedule B) Strength of Schedule C) Statistical Opponent Score D) Schedule Optimization System

Question 10

A team with +2.0 SOS rating (above average difficulty) can expect approximately how many fewer wins than their raw record suggests?

A) 0.5 fewer wins B) 1.0-1.5 fewer wins C) 2.0-2.5 fewer wins D) 3.0+ fewer wins

Question 11

For international games in London, the home field advantage is typically:

A) Standard ~2.3 points for designated home team B) Near zero since both teams travel C) Higher due to travel fatigue D) Double the normal HFA

Question 12

What is the bye timing multiplier for a Week 5 bye (early)?

A) 0.5x B) 0.7x C) 1.0x D) 1.2x

Question 13

The formula for rest differential adjustment is typically:

A) (Home_Days - Away_Days) × 0.5 B) (Home_Days - Away_Days) × 0.15 C) (Home_Days - Away_Days) × 0.3 D) (Home_Days - Away_Days) × 1.0

Question 14

In calculating Strength of Schedule, which method is most common?

A) Count number of playoff teams faced B) Average opponents' win percentage C) Sum of opponents' point differentials D) Weighted average of power ratings

Question 15

What is the maximum combined schedule adjustment typically seen in extreme cases?

A) 1-2 points B) 2-3 points C) 3-4 points D) 5+ points

Question 16

How does playing in Mexico City (7,350 ft altitude) affect visiting teams?

A) No significant effect B) -0.5 to -1.0 point penalty C) -1.5 to -2.0 point penalty D) Only affects teams from sea-level cities

Question 17

Which factor provides the LARGEST individual schedule adjustment?

A) Single timezone travel B) Standard bye week advantage C) Monday-to-Thursday turnaround D) Late season timing

Question 18

When calculating future Strength of Schedule for playoff projections, you should:

A) Use opponents' current records B) Project opponents' final records C) Use last year's opponent records D) Ignore SOS for future games

Question 19

The directional travel penalty (West-to-East vs East-to-West) adds approximately:

A) +0.05 points B) +0.15 points C) +0.30 points D) +0.50 points

Question 20

For Thursday Night Football, if both teams played the previous Sunday, the away team penalty reflects:

A) Only travel fatigue B) Only preparation time reduction C) Both shorter rest and travel combined D) No penalty since rest is equal

True/False Questions

Question 21

True or False: Teams with late-season byes (Week 12+) gain a larger advantage than teams with early-season byes.

Question 22

True or False: Divisional games typically have the same schedule advantages as non-divisional games.

Question 23

True or False: A team playing three consecutive home games gains cumulative rest advantage.

Question 24

True or False: The NFL schedule intentionally avoids giving any team a Monday-to-Thursday turnaround.

Question 25

True or False: Strength of Schedule should only be calculated retrospectively, never prospectively.

Short Answer Questions

Question 26

Explain why bye week advantages may be partially "priced in" by betting markets.

Question 27

A team from the Pacific timezone plays an early game (10 AM local time) on the East Coast. List THREE factors that contribute to their disadvantage.

Question 28

Calculate the total schedule adjustment for this scenario: - Home team: Off bye (Week 10 bye), normal 1.0x multiplier - Away team: Normal rest, traveled from 2 timezones away (West-to-East) - Game: Sunday afternoon

Question 29

Why might a team's SOS early in the season be misleading compared to end-of-season SOS?

Question 30

Describe how you would adjust your model for a team playing its second consecutive international game (e.g., London Week 5, Germany Week 6).

Answer Key

Multiple Choice

  1. B) +1.2 points - The standard bye week advantage is approximately 1.2 points.

  2. D) Week 13 (very late bye) - Late byes have 1.4x multiplier; teams get rest when it matters most for playoff push.

  3. B) -1.5 points - Standard TNF road team penalty for Sunday-to-Thursday turnaround.

  4. C) -3.0 points - Monday-to-Thursday is the most extreme short rest scenario, doubling the penalty.

  5. B) 6 days - Sunday to Sunday with travel typically allows 6 full days of preparation.

  6. B) +0.2 points to home team - Each timezone crossed adds roughly 0.2 points of home advantage.

  7. B) Teams lose time adjusting to earlier timezone - Circadian rhythm disruption is worse when "losing" hours traveling east.

  8. B) Zero (advantages cancel out) - When both teams have equal rest, the bye effects neutralize.

  9. B) Strength of Schedule - Measures the cumulative difficulty of a team's opponents.

  10. B) 1.0-1.5 fewer wins - A +2.0 SOS typically inflates raw record by 1-2 wins.

  11. B) Near zero since both teams travel - Neither team has true home advantage in neutral-site international games.

  12. B) 0.7x - Early byes (Week 4-5) have reduced effectiveness due to less accumulated fatigue.

  13. B) (Home_Days - Away_Days) × 0.15 - Standard rest differential conversion factor.

  14. B) Average opponents' win percentage - Most common and intuitive SOS calculation method.

  15. C) 3-4 points - Extreme combinations (bye + travel + short week) can reach 3-4 points.

  16. B) -0.5 to -1.0 point penalty - Altitude affects non-acclimated teams, though less than Denver due to neutral site.

  17. C) Monday-to-Thursday turnaround - At -3.0 points, this is the largest single schedule factor.

  18. B) Project opponents' final records - Forward-looking SOS requires estimating how opponents will finish.

  19. B) +0.15 points - Additional penalty for West-to-East travel direction.

  20. C) Both shorter rest and travel combined - TNF penalty incorporates reduced prep time plus typical travel effects.

True/False

  1. True - Late byes (1.2-1.4x multiplier) provide larger advantages than early byes (0.7x).

  2. False - Divisional games typically have reduced schedule effects due to team familiarity.

  3. False - Rest is measured from previous game regardless of home/away; consecutive home games don't add rest.

  4. False - While rare, Monday-to-Thursday turnarounds do occur and carry significant penalties.

  5. False - Both retrospective and prospective SOS are valuable; prospective SOS helps with playoff projections.

Short Answer

  1. Market pricing of bye weeks: Markets generally account for obvious bye advantages by adjusting lines approximately 1 point. However, markets may not fully capture: - Timing multipliers (early vs late byes) - Cumulative effects with travel - Team-specific bye performance history The persistent ATS edge of ~52-54% suggests markets don't perfectly price all bye factors.

  2. West Coast team early East Coast game disadvantages:

  3. Body clock timing - Playing at 10 AM local = 7 AM on body clock; athletes not at peak
  4. Travel fatigue - 3 timezone adjustment, likely arrived 1-2 days prior
  5. Sleep disruption - West-to-East travel harder on circadian rhythm
  6. Game week preparation - May have shortened practice schedule due to travel

  7. Environmental adjustment - Different climate, potentially cold weather

  8. Schedule adjustment calculation: - Bye week: +1.2 × 1.0 (standard timing) = +1.2 - Travel (2 TZ): 2 × 0.2 = +0.4 - West-to-East penalty: +0.15 - Total: +1.75 points home advantage from schedule

  9. Early-season SOS limitations: - Small sample sizes make opponent records unreliable - Teams haven't yet established their true quality - Early schedule often includes easier opponents by design - Injuries and roster changes haven't fully materialized - Better to use preseason power ratings than early W-L records

  10. Consecutive international games adjustment: - First international game: Apply standard travel penalty (-0.5 to -1.0) - Second consecutive: Cumulative fatigue factor (+50% penalty) - If team stays overseas between games: Reduce second game penalty - If team returns home then travels again: Full double penalty - Consider jet lag direction both ways - Factor in whether bye week follows the international stretch - Total adjustment could reach -2.0 to -3.0 points for second game

Scoring Guide

  • 27-30 correct: Expert level - Ready to build production schedule models
  • 23-26 correct: Advanced - Strong grasp of schedule analytics
  • 18-22 correct: Proficient - Good foundation, review edge cases
  • 13-17 correct: Developing - Revisit bye week and short week sections
  • Below 13: Review Chapter 26 thoroughly before proceeding

Key Concepts Summary

  1. Bye Week: +1.2 points base × timing multiplier (0.7-1.4)
  2. Thursday Night Away: -1.5 points (or -3.0 for Mon→Thu)
  3. Rest Differential: 0.15 points per day difference
  4. Travel: 0.2 points per timezone + 0.15 West→East
  5. SOS: Average opponent win% converted to expected wins
  6. International: Near-zero HFA, both teams penalized
  7. Maximum Combined: 3-4 points in extreme scenarios

These schedule factors are predictable in advance and should be incorporated into any serious NFL prediction model.