Quiz: Team Efficiency Metrics

Question 1

What does a team's "success rate" measure?

A) Percentage of plays gaining positive yards B) Percentage of plays with positive EPA C) Percentage of drives ending in scores D) Percentage of games won

Question 2

If Team A has an offensive EPA/play of +0.08 and defensive EPA/play of -0.02, what is their net EPA/play?

A) +0.06 B) +0.10 C) +0.04 D) -0.06

Question 3

Which threshold typically defines an "explosive" passing play?

A) 10+ yards B) 15+ yards C) 20+ yards D) 25+ yards

Question 4

A team with high success rate but low explosiveness would be classified as:

A) Elite B) Consistent C) Boom-or-bust D) Struggling

Question 5

Why is defensive EPA inverted when calculating composite ratings?

A) Defensive plays always have negative EPA B) Lower EPA allowed is better for defenses C) To account for opponent strength D) Defensive EPA uses different units

Question 6

What is the approximate correlation between net EPA/play and wins?

A) 0.35-0.45 B) 0.55-0.65 C) 0.75-0.85 D) 0.90-0.95

Question 7

When filtering for "garbage time," which win probability range is typically considered meaningful?

A) 0.01 to 0.99 B) 0.10 to 0.90 C) 0.05 to 0.95 D) 0.20 to 0.80

Question 8

League-wide, which typically has higher EPA/play?

A) Rushing B) Passing C) They're approximately equal D) It varies too much to generalize

Question 9

What is the typical "pass premium" (pass EPA minus rush EPA) in the NFL?

A) -0.05 to 0.00 B) 0.00 to 0.03 C) 0.05 to 0.08 D) 0.10 to 0.15

Question 10

Which team efficiency metric is MOST stable year-to-year?

A) Rush EPA B) Turnover differential C) Pass EPA D) Defensive EPA

Question 11

A team has a net EPA of +0.18. What tier would this represent?

A) Above Average B) Very Good C) Elite D) Dominant (off the scale)

Question 12

Why might traditional rushing yards correlate poorly with wins?

A) Sample sizes are too small B) EPA already accounts for situation and context C) Rushing yards don't distinguish between good and bad plays D) Both B and C

Question 13

What does a 1st down success rate of 55% indicate?

A) Below average performance B) Average performance C) Good performance D) Elite performance

Question 14

When calculating defensive success rate allowed, a LOWER percentage indicates:

A) Worse defense B) Better defense C) More explosive plays allowed D) Fewer plays faced

Question 15

What weighting scheme is typical for composite team ratings?

A) 100% offensive metrics B) 50% offense, 50% defense C) 70% offense, 30% defense D) 35% off EPA, 35% def EPA, 15% off success, 15% def success

Question 16

A team's EPA regresses toward 0.00 over time primarily because:

A) Players get worse with age B) Schedule strength varies C) Statistical noise in limited samples D) Coaching changes

Question 17

Which metric would be BEST for identifying teams that might regress?

A) Win percentage B) Point differential C) Net EPA combined with Pythagorean expectation D) Rushing yards per game

Question 18

What does "explosive rate" typically include?

A) Any play over 10 yards B) Pass plays 20+ yards OR rush plays 10+ yards C) Any play with EPA > 1.0 D) Touchdown plays only

Question 19

Year-to-year rushing EPA correlation is approximately:

A) 0.25-0.35 B) 0.45-0.55 C) 0.55-0.65 D) 0.65-0.75

Question 20

Which limitation does NOT apply to basic team EPA metrics?

A) No opponent adjustment B) Ignores special teams C) Small sample sizes D) Affected by garbage time

Answer Key

  1. B - Success rate measures the percentage of plays with positive EPA, not just positive yards.

  2. B - Net EPA = Offensive EPA - Defensive EPA = 0.08 - (-0.02) = 0.08 + 0.02 = +0.10

  3. C - Explosive passing plays are typically defined as 20+ yards; explosive rushing plays are 10+ yards.

  4. B - High success rate but low explosiveness characterizes "consistent" teams that move the chains reliably but lack big plays.

  5. B - Defensive EPA represents points given up, so lower (more negative) is better. We invert it so higher scores = better defense.

  6. C - Net EPA/play typically correlates with wins at r = 0.75-0.85, making it one of the best predictors.

  7. C - Win probability between 0.05 and 0.95 is the standard filter for removing garbage time.

  8. B - Passing is consistently more efficient than rushing league-wide (pass EPA ~+0.05, rush EPA ~-0.03).

  9. C - The pass premium is typically 0.05-0.08 EPA/play, though this varies by team and situation.

  10. C - Pass EPA has the highest year-to-year stability (r = 0.55-0.65), making it most predictive.

  11. C - Net EPA of +0.18 is in the Elite tier (> 0.15).

  12. D - Both explanations are correct: EPA accounts for situation, and raw yards don't distinguish quality.

  13. D - 55%+ on 1st down is elite; league average is ~48%.

  14. B - Lower success rate allowed means fewer opponent plays succeeded, indicating better defense.

  15. D - A typical composite weights EPA metrics heavily (35% each for offense and defense) with success rates as secondary factors (15% each).

  16. C - Regression toward the mean is primarily driven by statistical noise in limited samples, not true talent changes.

  17. C - Comparing actual wins to Pythagorean expectation (from point differential or EPA) identifies teams that over/underperformed.

  18. B - Standard explosive play definitions: 20+ yards for passes, 10+ yards for rushes.

  19. A - Rush EPA has low year-to-year stability (r = 0.25-0.35), meaning it's less predictive than passing metrics.

  20. C - Team EPA uses all plays over a season, so sample size is generally adequate. The other limitations are real concerns.

Scoring Guide

  • 18-20: Excellent - Ready for advanced team analytics
  • 15-17: Good - Solid foundation in team metrics
  • 12-14: Satisfactory - Review key concepts
  • Below 12: Needs Review - Revisit chapter material