Case Study: Building a VORP-Based Draft Strategy for a 12-Team PPR League

Executive Summary

This case study walks through the complete analytical process for a 12-team PPR redraft league draft. We'll apply VORP calculations, scarcity analysis, and strategic decision-making to build an optimal roster from the 8th pick position.

Background: League Settings

League Configuration

Draft Position Analysis

Pick 8 in a 12-team snake: - Round 1: Pick 8 - Round 2: Pick 17 - Round 3: Pick 32 - Round 4: Pick 41 - Pattern: Picks cluster at turns, creating strategic opportunities

Part 1: Pre-Draft VORP Analysis

Calculating Replacement Levels

For a 12-team league with our roster settings:

Note: FLEX spot effectively raises RB/WR replacement levels

Top-24 VORP Rankings

Using projected PPR points and calculated VORP:

Key Observation: Josh Allen ranks 4th in raw points but 18th in VORP. This illustrates why analysts say "wait on QB."

Part 2: Pick 8 Decision Analysis

Available at Pick 8

Expected players available (based on typical draft patterns):

1. Travis Kelce (TE) - VORP: 165
2. Ja'Marr Chase (WR) - VORP: 175
3. Bijan Robinson (RB) - VORP: 165
4. Breece Hall (RB) - VORP: 160

Top 3 WRs and McCaffrey likely gone

Decision Framework

Option A: Travis Kelce - Pros: Elite positional scarcity, guaranteed production - Cons: Age 34, single-player dependency - VORP: 165

Option B: Ja'Marr Chase - Pros: Highest VORP available, young, high ceiling - Cons: WR depth reduces scarcity concern - VORP: 175

Option C: Bijan Robinson - Pros: Elite workload, pass-catching upside in PPR - Cons: Second-year player, some efficiency concerns - VORP: 165

Analysis

# Pick 8 Analysis
options = {
    'Kelce': {'vorp': 165, 'position_scarcity': 0.95, 'ceiling': 280},
    'Chase': {'vorp': 175, 'position_scarcity': 0.70, 'ceiling': 380},
    'Robinson': {'vorp': 165, 'position_scarcity': 0.85, 'ceiling': 320}
}

# Scarcity-adjusted VORP
for player, stats in options.items():
    adjusted = stats['vorp'] * (1 + stats['position_scarcity'] * 0.1)
    print(f"{player}: {adjusted:.1f} adjusted VORP")

# Results:
# Kelce: 180.7 adjusted VORP
# Chase: 187.3 adjusted VORP
# Robinson: 179.0 adjusted VORP

Decision: Ja'Marr Chase

Chase provides the highest VORP and ceiling. While Kelce's TE scarcity is significant, the PPR format enhances WR value, and Chase's target volume provides both floor and ceiling.

Part 3: Round 2 (Pick 17) Analysis

Board State

After 16 picks, typical available players:

Position Need Assessment

Current roster: Chase (WR) Needs: QB, RB×2, WR, TE, FLEX

Round 2 Strategy: - RB scarcity accelerating (workhorses disappearing) - WR depth remains strong through Round 4 - TE dropoff after Andrews is severe

Decision Analysis

# Round 2 needs analysis
if 'RB' not in roster:
    rb_urgency = 0.9  # High - only ~10 workhorse RBs
else:
    rb_urgency = 0.5

if 'TE' not in roster:
    # Check if Mark Andrews available
    if 'Andrews' in available:
        te_urgency = 0.7  # Andrews still elite
    else:
        te_urgency = 0.3  # Wait for later rounds

# VORP × Urgency
etienne_value = 120 * 0.9   # 108
andrews_value = 105 * 0.7   # 73.5

# Etienne preferred

Decision: Travis Etienne

Securing a bell-cow RB in Round 2 is critical. Etienne's pass-catching ability in PPR provides floor, and the RB position is thinning rapidly.

Part 4: Mid-Round Strategy (Rounds 3-6)

Round 3, Pick 32

Available: WR2 tier (Diontae Johnson, Chris Olave, DeVonta Smith)

Current roster: Chase (WR), Etienne (RB)

Decision: DeVonta Smith (WR) - High target volume in PHI offense - PPR monster (90+ receptions projected) - Secures WR2 with upside

Round 4, Pick 41

Available: RB2/RB3 tier, TE2 tier

Decision: James Conner (RB) - Workhorse when healthy - Secures RB2 for lineup stability - RB depth evaporating

Round 5, Pick 56

Available: WR3 tier, TE mid-tier, QB1-2

Analysis: Now we must choose between: - WR depth (strong WR3 available) - Elite QB (Hurts/Lamar) - Mid-tier TE (Kittle, Goedert)

# VORP remaining at each position
qb_vorp_round5 = 340 - 265  # Hurts VORP = 75
te_vorp_round5 = 150 - 75   # Kittle VORP = 75
wr_vorp_round5 = 200 - 115  # Diontae VORP = 85

# WR provides best VORP, but QB/TE more scarce going forward
# Decision based on what's available in rounds 6-8

Decision: George Kittle (TE) - TE cliff approaching (after Kittle, next reliable option is Round 8+) - Kittle's receiving volume excellent in PPR - QB can be found in Round 8-10 with minimal VORP loss

Round 6, Pick 65

Available: WR3, RB fliers, QB1-2

Decision: Chris Olave (WR) - High-volume target share - Young with breakout potential - Solidifies FLEX with WR upside

Part 5: Late-Round Value Hunting

Rounds 7-10: Positional Balance

Rounds 11-15: Lottery Tickets

Part 6: Final Roster Analysis

Complete Roster

Bench Analysis

Total VORP Analysis

starting_vorp = 120 + 85 + 195 + 140 + 95 + 115 + 25
print(f"Starting Lineup VORP: {starting_vorp}")  # 775

# Compare to league average
league_avg_vorp = 12 * (100 + 70 + 130 + 100 + 50 + 90 + 20) // 12
print(f"League Average VORP: {league_avg_vorp}")  # 560

# VORP advantage
advantage = starting_vorp - 560
print(f"VORP Advantage: {advantage}")  # 215 points over average team

Projected Advantage: ~215 VORP points over league average, approximately 13 PPG advantage.

Part 7: Draft Evaluation Metrics

Position Investment Analysis

Strategy Assessment: Heavy WR investment reflects PPR format value. QB delayed significantly based on replacement level analysis.

Ceiling vs Floor Balance

roster_ceiling = sum([
    380,  # Chase ceiling
    270,  # Etienne ceiling
    230,  # Conner ceiling
    300,  # Smith ceiling
    280,  # Olave ceiling
    220,  # Kittle ceiling
    400,  # Richardson ceiling (rushing QB)
])  # = 2,080 ceiling

roster_floor = sum([
    240,  # Chase floor
    160,  # Etienne floor
    100,  # Conner floor (injury risk)
    180,  # Smith floor
    170,  # Olave floor
    120,  # Kittle floor
    180,  # Richardson floor
])  # = 1,150 floor

roster_projection = sum([310, 215, 180, 255, 230, 170, 290])  # = 1,650

Profile: High-ceiling roster with moderate floor. Conner and Richardson provide variance that could either boom or bust.

Part 8: In-Season Management Plan

Week 1-4: Establish Baseline

• Monitor: Richardson's rushing usage, Conner's health
• Waiver Priority: RB depth (position with most attrition)
• Trade Targets: If WR breakout occurs, trade depth for RB upgrade

Week 5-8: Make Moves

• If Richardson struggles: Stream QB or target Watson/Mayfield
• If Conner injured: Allgeier becomes starter; pursue trades
• Trade window: WR depth (Olave if another WR breaks out)

Week 9-12: Playoff Positioning

• Evaluate playoff schedules: Adjust roster for favorable matchups
• Consolidate talent: Trade 2-for-1 to upgrade starters
• Target: Championship Week favorable matchups

Week 13+: Championship Mode

• Lock starting lineup: Minimize streaming volatility
• Handcuff priority: Own key backup RBs
• Stack plays: If in must-win, consider QB-WR stacks

Key Lessons

1. VORP Changes Everything

Raw points rankings would have suggested Josh Allen in Round 1. VORP analysis correctly identifies that QB13 provides 70% of Allen's value, making Chase the superior pick.

2. PPR Formats Reward Volume

In PPR, target share matters more than TD rate. Players like DeVonta Smith and Chris Olave become premium assets due to reception volume.

3. Position Runs Create Urgency

Waiting on RB until Round 4 would have left only committee backs. Recognizing the RB cliff at pick 25-30 informed Round 2 strategy.

4. Late-Round Strategy is Lottery-Based

After Round 10, chase upside over floor. Kendre Miller might be worth 10 points or 180 points—the uncertainty is the value.

5. Process Beats Results

This roster might finish 12th or 1st depending on variance. The analytical process maximized expected value; results will vary.

Exercises for Students

1. Recalculate this draft strategy for a standard (non-PPR) league. Which picks would change?

2. Simulate what happens if you took Kelce at Pick 8 instead. How does the roster differ by Round 6?

3. Project in-season scenarios: If Chase gets injured Week 3, what's your waiver strategy?

4. Analyze the optimal time to trade WR depth for an RB upgrade based on positional scarcity curves.

5. Build a championship-week optimal lineup assuming all players hit their ceilings. What's the maximum possible score?

Conclusion

This case study demonstrates that fantasy football success comes from systematic analysis rather than gut instinct. By applying VORP calculations, understanding positional scarcity, and building around league-specific scoring rules, you can gain a measurable edge over competitors who draft based on name recognition or raw projections.

The 215-point VORP advantage translates to roughly 13 PPG over the average team—a significant edge that should result in playoff contention regardless of week-to-week variance.